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I have continued to test my method but it’s painstakingly slow and a lot of hard work for no reward – at the moment anyway!
My little application is coming along nicely and is ending up better than I had imagined. All it can do so far is log in, select a market and then display the current odds. With a bit more work I’m hoping I can program it to do the research I’m currently doing by hand as it would save me hours of work. Here’s a little screen shot of my program…
I’m building this in .net which makes it easier than normal to do as most of the code (such as the SOAP calls etc) are all done for you. For some reason I’m finding it hard to connect to Betdaq’s API. I think it’s relatively new and there isn’t much documentation around for it. I will keep trying though as it would be a massive advantage to have a cross-exchange application.
My little application is coming along nicely and is ending up better than I had imagined. All it can do so far is log in, select a market and then display the current odds. With a bit more work I’m hoping I can program it to do the research I’m currently doing by hand as it would save me hours of work. Here’s a little screen shot of my program…
Click picture to enlarge
I’m building this in .net which makes it easier than normal to do as most of the code (such as the SOAP calls etc) are all done for you. For some reason I’m finding it hard to connect to Betdaq’s API. I think it’s relatively new and there isn’t much documentation around for it. I will keep trying though as it would be a massive advantage to have a cross-exchange application.
Its’ funny how not thinking about something allows you to find the answer you were looking for. I wasn’t even thinking about the football trading (in fact I’m not sure I was even thinking about trading, I can’t remember now) but the bloomin’ obvious just slapped me in the face.
This was about a week ago and ever since then I have been finding every possible fault with my eureka thought I possibly could – as yet I’ve found none which would stop the method from working in the long run.
I don’t want to let on to what my idea is (that would be foolish) and after searching the internet I cannot find anyone who has mentioned a similar style – this has to be a good thing in my books! For example search ‘Lay the draw’ and find how many strategies are out there and ask yourself if it really works? If you do lay the draw and it works then good luck to you.
I will continue to test and develop this idea which I have codenamed ‘Eureka’ as so far it looks promising. There are a few tweaks and as with anything in this business it will need continued tweaking as the markets evolve.
I also had another kind of eureka moment today as I managed to build a basic program which logs into the Betfair API and shows my account balance. A long was away from a fully fledged betting application but it’s a start. Now is I can get the same program to log into Betdaq……
I can’t help but think my idea is so simple it cannot possibly work but then the simplest things are sometimes the best. Expect a post in a weeks time stating there was some major flaw with my idea – if I never post again you know it worked a treat!
This was about a week ago and ever since then I have been finding every possible fault with my eureka thought I possibly could – as yet I’ve found none which would stop the method from working in the long run.
I don’t want to let on to what my idea is (that would be foolish) and after searching the internet I cannot find anyone who has mentioned a similar style – this has to be a good thing in my books! For example search ‘Lay the draw’ and find how many strategies are out there and ask yourself if it really works? If you do lay the draw and it works then good luck to you.
I will continue to test and develop this idea which I have codenamed ‘Eureka’ as so far it looks promising. There are a few tweaks and as with anything in this business it will need continued tweaking as the markets evolve.
I also had another kind of eureka moment today as I managed to build a basic program which logs into the Betfair API and shows my account balance. A long was away from a fully fledged betting application but it’s a start. Now is I can get the same program to log into Betdaq……
I can’t help but think my idea is so simple it cannot possibly work but then the simplest things are sometimes the best. Expect a post in a weeks time stating there was some major flaw with my idea – if I never post again you know it worked a treat!
Yesterday I made a huge £1.10 to add to my fund!
Football is so much harder than F1 and takes up much more of my time. I thought I spent a lot of time on F1 and figured football would be easy over the winter months but it’s looking like I will have to spend more time on football than I had planned.
I’m still not giving up because there are a few things which have caught my eye and may work out in the long run, but at the moment I just don’t have the time to get them sorted.
There are only 3 races left in the F1 season and it would be silly of me to spoil all the hard work I’ve put into that over the last 6 or so months because I was distracted with football.
I’m going to put all football betting/trading on hold until the end of the F1 season. That way it won’t interfere with F1 research and I will then be able to concentrate solely on football without having to balance my time between the two.
Good luck to you all in the meantime, I will be back in November!
Games traded since last update: 10 (16)
Wins - Losses: 6 - 4 (9 - 7)
Profit/loss since last update: +£1.10
Test Fund: £100.40
Football is so much harder than F1 and takes up much more of my time. I thought I spent a lot of time on F1 and figured football would be easy over the winter months but it’s looking like I will have to spend more time on football than I had planned.
I’m still not giving up because there are a few things which have caught my eye and may work out in the long run, but at the moment I just don’t have the time to get them sorted.
There are only 3 races left in the F1 season and it would be silly of me to spoil all the hard work I’ve put into that over the last 6 or so months because I was distracted with football.
I’m going to put all football betting/trading on hold until the end of the F1 season. That way it won’t interfere with F1 research and I will then be able to concentrate solely on football without having to balance my time between the two.
Good luck to you all in the meantime, I will be back in November!
Games traded since last update: 10 (16)
Wins - Losses: 6 - 4 (9 - 7)
Profit/loss since last update: +£1.10
Test Fund: £100.40
How did I follow 3 wins out of 3…..with 3 losses out of 3!
I'm not bothered about the losses because with football it's something that will have to be a frequent thing. The fact it's put me at a loss so far is the worrying thing. If I'd have let the Man Utd bet run from yesterday instead of greening after 5 minutes I would be in profit, but not by much.
Thankfully I know what the problem is and how to solve it. When I calculate my lays I am basing the stake (my liability) on a maximum the same as my backs. This means I'm loosing almost twice as much on lay bets as I am on back bets because of the way I'm trading. Of course I'm winning more on the lay bets as well but my main aim is to reduce losses so I need to change this.
My next chance to try the football will be Saturday which will be a big test with so many games available to play on. A change of calculation in the lay bet stake will hopefully bring a return. In a way I'm glad I discovered this problem with it only costing me 70 pence.
I made a slight change to the stats with the a running total of games being played shown in brackets.
Games traded since last update: 3 (6)
Wins - Losses: 3 - 0 (3-3)
Profit/loss since last update: -£8.19
Test Fund: £99.30
I'm not bothered about the losses because with football it's something that will have to be a frequent thing. The fact it's put me at a loss so far is the worrying thing. If I'd have let the Man Utd bet run from yesterday instead of greening after 5 minutes I would be in profit, but not by much.
Thankfully I know what the problem is and how to solve it. When I calculate my lays I am basing the stake (my liability) on a maximum the same as my backs. This means I'm loosing almost twice as much on lay bets as I am on back bets because of the way I'm trading. Of course I'm winning more on the lay bets as well but my main aim is to reduce losses so I need to change this.
My next chance to try the football will be Saturday which will be a big test with so many games available to play on. A change of calculation in the lay bet stake will hopefully bring a return. In a way I'm glad I discovered this problem with it only costing me 70 pence.
I made a slight change to the stats with the a running total of games being played shown in brackets.
Games traded since last update: 3 (6)
Wins - Losses: 3 - 0 (3-3)
Profit/loss since last update: -£8.19
Test Fund: £99.30
Well that’s not a bad start - It's half time and I'm already out of all the games with a profit.
I had backed Man Utd @ 1.34 but within 5 mins of the game start they were trading at 1.26 so I thought why take a risk when if I can take a profit now. Of course Man u scored after 20 minutes but I' don't care - a win is a win and Aalborg did have a few chances in between that so you never know what could have happened.
Lyon took the lead against Munich and I greened that up at half time. They could go on to win but Munich are strong at home and there's a high chance of an equalizer in the second half (of course Norwich didn't have much of a problem when we beat the mighty Munich back in the day!)
Celctic did well and held Villareal to a draw at half time so I have again greened that one up which was my intention from the start.
I maybe used a bit too much of my bank today and may reduce the stakes a little. The return is actually higher than I expected so I may as well reduce the likelyhood of blowing up my bank in a loosing streak.
As for tomorrow these are the positions I will take.
Back Chelsea away to CFR @ 1.46
Lay Liverpool at home to PSV @ 1.40
Lay Shakhtar at home to Barcelona @ 5.00
And as I get to the end of writing this Munich have equalised and Villareal have just taken the lead….few...Man U are 2-0 up but never mind.
Games traded since last update: 3
Wins - Losses: 3 - 0
Profit/loss since last update: £7.49
Test Fund: £107.49
I had backed Man Utd @ 1.34 but within 5 mins of the game start they were trading at 1.26 so I thought why take a risk when if I can take a profit now. Of course Man u scored after 20 minutes but I' don't care - a win is a win and Aalborg did have a few chances in between that so you never know what could have happened.
Lyon took the lead against Munich and I greened that up at half time. They could go on to win but Munich are strong at home and there's a high chance of an equalizer in the second half (of course Norwich didn't have much of a problem when we beat the mighty Munich back in the day!)
Celctic did well and held Villareal to a draw at half time so I have again greened that one up which was my intention from the start.
I maybe used a bit too much of my bank today and may reduce the stakes a little. The return is actually higher than I expected so I may as well reduce the likelyhood of blowing up my bank in a loosing streak.
As for tomorrow these are the positions I will take.
Back Chelsea away to CFR @ 1.46
Lay Liverpool at home to PSV @ 1.40
Lay Shakhtar at home to Barcelona @ 5.00
And as I get to the end of writing this Munich have equalised and Villareal have just taken the lead….few...Man U are 2-0 up but never mind.
Games traded since last update: 3
Wins - Losses: 3 - 0
Profit/loss since last update: £7.49
Test Fund: £107.49
With 3 races left to go in the F1 season I need to kick the football off otherwise I'm going to miss the extra income over the winter months. I have some good data and with that I'm going to take a look at the Champions League games tomorrow night.
I have gone back to the drawing board as I could tell straight away the stab in the dark I was taking before was only going to result in a loss. I have re-set the fund and I'm ready to go again.
I'm not using any strategy for my football trading. I don't think they work (I'll post more about that another time) so I have looked at each game in isolation. There are 3 games I like the look of and I will take the following positions before they start:
Back Man Utd away to AaB
Lay Villarrel at home to Celtic
Back Lyon away at Bayern Munich
I have exit strategies for all three games and based on the data I have I roughly know what my exit losses will be if I need to take them. It's important to note these are not tips! I have taken these selections as I'm happy the risk/reward ratio is favourable for my 'method' of trading and not necessarily because I think that team will win. If I lose on all three games it won't be a disaster - I have put effort into making a 'method' which in the long term hopefully will give me a return.
I have also taken the choice of showing a profit/loss on each post seeing as this is more of an experiment. I hope this will give a better idea of how things are developing rather than me saying I had a good/bad week. This will simply be the return I have made since the last update. Remember as I'm starting with a bank of £100 test fund to see if this works the returns will be small.
I will also post the number of games traded and the ratio of wins to losses. If I'm doing this right I want to be profiting even if I have more losses than wins.
Games traded since last update: 0
Wins - Losses: 0 - 0
Profit/loss since last update: £0.00
Test Fund: £100
I have gone back to the drawing board as I could tell straight away the stab in the dark I was taking before was only going to result in a loss. I have re-set the fund and I'm ready to go again.
I'm not using any strategy for my football trading. I don't think they work (I'll post more about that another time) so I have looked at each game in isolation. There are 3 games I like the look of and I will take the following positions before they start:
Back Man Utd away to AaB
Lay Villarrel at home to Celtic
Back Lyon away at Bayern Munich
I have exit strategies for all three games and based on the data I have I roughly know what my exit losses will be if I need to take them. It's important to note these are not tips! I have taken these selections as I'm happy the risk/reward ratio is favourable for my 'method' of trading and not necessarily because I think that team will win. If I lose on all three games it won't be a disaster - I have put effort into making a 'method' which in the long term hopefully will give me a return.
I have also taken the choice of showing a profit/loss on each post seeing as this is more of an experiment. I hope this will give a better idea of how things are developing rather than me saying I had a good/bad week. This will simply be the return I have made since the last update. Remember as I'm starting with a bank of £100 test fund to see if this works the returns will be small.
I will also post the number of games traded and the ratio of wins to losses. If I'm doing this right I want to be profiting even if I have more losses than wins.
Games traded since last update: 0
Wins - Losses: 0 - 0
Profit/loss since last update: £0.00
Test Fund: £100
Of the 7 or so techniques I was trying I have already managed to file some of them under the ‘waste of time’ category and thrown them in the bin. I have 3 ideas I would like to try out but before I go any further with them I have realised I must understand these markets first.
It all comes down to an exit strategy. I could research a game and decide to back Man United at home against Newcastle for 1.31. I may have good reasons for entering the market on that selection, for that price and with a specific stake – but unless I have an exit strategy, at this point it’s just a simple ‘bet’ - it’s a gamble.
I have no idea how much the market will move if United take the lead or go a goal down. If it stays a draw it’s obvious the odds will slowly move out but at what time would I exit? Without knowing the amount of movement in the odds before hand I have no idea as to my possible loss amounts to in given situations. Without a planned exit it’s left to my decision making in-play…..
There’s nothing wrong with making decisions in-play, I do it all the time with F1. The difference is I understand the F1 markets after years of playing them. I have an idea as to what to do if X,Y or Z happens which allows me to make kind of instinctive actions to events happening during the race. Of course I get it wrong sometimes but if I’m right more times than wrong and I win more when I’m right than I loose when I’m wrong –I will win. I don’t understand the football markets at the moment and I end up ‘lost’ as to what to do when things go against me: “Should I wait and see if they equalize”, “It’s only £*, should I leave it to run” are the kind of thoughts entering my head. In essence I’m gambling not trading.
If I know what the consequences are before I enter a trade I would be better prepared. You can never tell exactly but even a rough idea would be a massive advantage and in some cases I may realise a position may not be worth entering at all because the risk far outweighs any potential pay-off.
The football trading will therefore be put on hold until I have a half decent knowledge of the odds movements. I’m using an excel to record some data which I will then evolve to incorporate some kind of ‘prediction’ calculator. By that I don’t mean it will tell me who will win the game! I mean, given the odds are currently 1.31, what would be my profit/loss be if X,Y or Z happened at a given time.
There won’t be much point in updating the blog during this period as I won’t have much to say and I also need to switch my attention back F1 for next weeks race. I will be back, hopefully better prepared and with a clearer idea of how to play this game.
It all comes down to an exit strategy. I could research a game and decide to back Man United at home against Newcastle for 1.31. I may have good reasons for entering the market on that selection, for that price and with a specific stake – but unless I have an exit strategy, at this point it’s just a simple ‘bet’ - it’s a gamble.
I have no idea how much the market will move if United take the lead or go a goal down. If it stays a draw it’s obvious the odds will slowly move out but at what time would I exit? Without knowing the amount of movement in the odds before hand I have no idea as to my possible loss amounts to in given situations. Without a planned exit it’s left to my decision making in-play…..
There’s nothing wrong with making decisions in-play, I do it all the time with F1. The difference is I understand the F1 markets after years of playing them. I have an idea as to what to do if X,Y or Z happens which allows me to make kind of instinctive actions to events happening during the race. Of course I get it wrong sometimes but if I’m right more times than wrong and I win more when I’m right than I loose when I’m wrong –I will win. I don’t understand the football markets at the moment and I end up ‘lost’ as to what to do when things go against me: “Should I wait and see if they equalize”, “It’s only £*, should I leave it to run” are the kind of thoughts entering my head. In essence I’m gambling not trading.
If I know what the consequences are before I enter a trade I would be better prepared. You can never tell exactly but even a rough idea would be a massive advantage and in some cases I may realise a position may not be worth entering at all because the risk far outweighs any potential pay-off.
The football trading will therefore be put on hold until I have a half decent knowledge of the odds movements. I’m using an excel to record some data which I will then evolve to incorporate some kind of ‘prediction’ calculator. By that I don’t mean it will tell me who will win the game! I mean, given the odds are currently 1.31, what would be my profit/loss be if X,Y or Z happened at a given time.
There won’t be much point in updating the blog during this period as I won’t have much to say and I also need to switch my attention back F1 for next weeks race. I will be back, hopefully better prepared and with a clearer idea of how to play this game.