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Of the 7 or so techniques I was trying I have already managed to file some of them under the ‘waste of time’ category and thrown them in the bin. I have 3 ideas I would like to try out but before I go any further with them I have realised I must understand these markets first.
It all comes down to an exit strategy. I could research a game and decide to back Man United at home against Newcastle for 1.31. I may have good reasons for entering the market on that selection, for that price and with a specific stake – but unless I have an exit strategy, at this point it’s just a simple ‘bet’ - it’s a gamble.
I have no idea how much the market will move if United take the lead or go a goal down. If it stays a draw it’s obvious the odds will slowly move out but at what time would I exit? Without knowing the amount of movement in the odds before hand I have no idea as to my possible loss amounts to in given situations. Without a planned exit it’s left to my decision making in-play…..
There’s nothing wrong with making decisions in-play, I do it all the time with F1. The difference is I understand the F1 markets after years of playing them. I have an idea as to what to do if X,Y or Z happens which allows me to make kind of instinctive actions to events happening during the race. Of course I get it wrong sometimes but if I’m right more times than wrong and I win more when I’m right than I loose when I’m wrong –I will win. I don’t understand the football markets at the moment and I end up ‘lost’ as to what to do when things go against me: “Should I wait and see if they equalize”, “It’s only £*, should I leave it to run” are the kind of thoughts entering my head. In essence I’m gambling not trading.
If I know what the consequences are before I enter a trade I would be better prepared. You can never tell exactly but even a rough idea would be a massive advantage and in some cases I may realise a position may not be worth entering at all because the risk far outweighs any potential pay-off.
The football trading will therefore be put on hold until I have a half decent knowledge of the odds movements. I’m using an excel to record some data which I will then evolve to incorporate some kind of ‘prediction’ calculator. By that I don’t mean it will tell me who will win the game! I mean, given the odds are currently 1.31, what would be my profit/loss be if X,Y or Z happened at a given time.
There won’t be much point in updating the blog during this period as I won’t have much to say and I also need to switch my attention back F1 for next weeks race. I will be back, hopefully better prepared and with a clearer idea of how to play this game.
It all comes down to an exit strategy. I could research a game and decide to back Man United at home against Newcastle for 1.31. I may have good reasons for entering the market on that selection, for that price and with a specific stake – but unless I have an exit strategy, at this point it’s just a simple ‘bet’ - it’s a gamble.
I have no idea how much the market will move if United take the lead or go a goal down. If it stays a draw it’s obvious the odds will slowly move out but at what time would I exit? Without knowing the amount of movement in the odds before hand I have no idea as to my possible loss amounts to in given situations. Without a planned exit it’s left to my decision making in-play…..
There’s nothing wrong with making decisions in-play, I do it all the time with F1. The difference is I understand the F1 markets after years of playing them. I have an idea as to what to do if X,Y or Z happens which allows me to make kind of instinctive actions to events happening during the race. Of course I get it wrong sometimes but if I’m right more times than wrong and I win more when I’m right than I loose when I’m wrong –I will win. I don’t understand the football markets at the moment and I end up ‘lost’ as to what to do when things go against me: “Should I wait and see if they equalize”, “It’s only £*, should I leave it to run” are the kind of thoughts entering my head. In essence I’m gambling not trading.
If I know what the consequences are before I enter a trade I would be better prepared. You can never tell exactly but even a rough idea would be a massive advantage and in some cases I may realise a position may not be worth entering at all because the risk far outweighs any potential pay-off.
The football trading will therefore be put on hold until I have a half decent knowledge of the odds movements. I’m using an excel to record some data which I will then evolve to incorporate some kind of ‘prediction’ calculator. By that I don’t mean it will tell me who will win the game! I mean, given the odds are currently 1.31, what would be my profit/loss be if X,Y or Z happened at a given time.
There won’t be much point in updating the blog during this period as I won’t have much to say and I also need to switch my attention back F1 for next weeks race. I will be back, hopefully better prepared and with a clearer idea of how to play this game.
Hi John,
nice to see you have a football section in your blog :)
I have also started to trade on football. I agree with you, you need to know the odds movement for certain situations.
When I trade on football I do some research pre match, but not too much.
I prefer to trade on what I see. I try to read the match. The best situation would be, if you lay a team. Then you have only one action which should not happen: The team you laid will score. If there is no goal or the other team scores, you are already in profit.
A good example was this week the Olympic Bronze medal match Germany (W) vs Japan (W). Odds on Germany pre match 1.6
If Germany scores, odds would drop to 1.2x but if the score is 0-0 at half time odds on Germany would be 2.2x.
When watching the game I realised very soon that Germany did not play their best. They played really bad and I laid them with the knowledge of risking around 35 ticks (from 1.6 to circa 1.25) or gaining at least 60 ticks (from 1.6 to 2.2x) if score is 0-0 at half time, or more ticks if Japan scores first.
That's the way I am trading soccer.
Alistair, the blogger of Bet Your Life has created a chat room for traders, maybe you are interested and want to join.
All the best, Loocie