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For the last two games of the Euro’s I simply backed Spain and left them as outright bets. Not really a ‘strategy’ but there was value in the odds and at no point did I feel the need to trade out, so they were left to run.
The funds therefore in profit but for no reason other than luck. I have been trying to think of a way to reduce the ‘luck’ factor and find some edge but it’s not easy - my main issue and the reason I believe it’s so hard to make regular profit (note the regular part) from football, is because most ‘strategies’ rely on you cutting your winnings.
Take the well known Lay The Draw method, which involves laying the draw and then backing when/if either team scores. What are you really doing here? As soon as the advantage moves in your favour (the game is not a draw) a green-up bet is placed – in other words you are cutting your wins short. If there’s no goal what do you do? How do you know when to exit? Most of the time you would be leaving your losses to run for a far greater extent compared to the winnings you are cutting short – the exact opposite of what you should be doing. Yes you could take out insurance on 0-0 but then your reducing your profits on the winning bets again, to the point you don’t actually make a profit.
A far better ‘strategy’ would be to do some research. Find a game you believe will not end 0-0, or even better would not end a draw. Compare the odds with the real probable outcome and determine if there is some value in the odds form a lay perspective. Then Lay the draw and let the bet run. Of course that’s not a strategy – it’s a gamble on a pure outright bet. If you got your research correct you should make a profit, unless you were really unlucky, but it’s not the way to make a regular income. This is the hard part about finding a football ‘strategy’. Trading results in you cutting losses and gambling is …a gamble.
I’ve still not decide on how I will ‘play’ the football markets although I already know it won’t be through some ‘strategy’. Each game is different so why would I want to apply the same method to each one. At the same time I don’t want to rely on luck, so I have to find the middle ground somewhere. If you thought I had some plan or strategy when I start this blog your wrong - It’s a good job I have some time before the start of the season because at the moment I really have no idea of what I’m going to do!
The funds therefore in profit but for no reason other than luck. I have been trying to think of a way to reduce the ‘luck’ factor and find some edge but it’s not easy - my main issue and the reason I believe it’s so hard to make regular profit (note the regular part) from football, is because most ‘strategies’ rely on you cutting your winnings.
Take the well known Lay The Draw method, which involves laying the draw and then backing when/if either team scores. What are you really doing here? As soon as the advantage moves in your favour (the game is not a draw) a green-up bet is placed – in other words you are cutting your wins short. If there’s no goal what do you do? How do you know when to exit? Most of the time you would be leaving your losses to run for a far greater extent compared to the winnings you are cutting short – the exact opposite of what you should be doing. Yes you could take out insurance on 0-0 but then your reducing your profits on the winning bets again, to the point you don’t actually make a profit.
A far better ‘strategy’ would be to do some research. Find a game you believe will not end 0-0, or even better would not end a draw. Compare the odds with the real probable outcome and determine if there is some value in the odds form a lay perspective. Then Lay the draw and let the bet run. Of course that’s not a strategy – it’s a gamble on a pure outright bet. If you got your research correct you should make a profit, unless you were really unlucky, but it’s not the way to make a regular income. This is the hard part about finding a football ‘strategy’. Trading results in you cutting losses and gambling is …a gamble.
I’ve still not decide on how I will ‘play’ the football markets although I already know it won’t be through some ‘strategy’. Each game is different so why would I want to apply the same method to each one. At the same time I don’t want to rely on luck, so I have to find the middle ground somewhere. If you thought I had some plan or strategy when I start this blog your wrong - It’s a good job I have some time before the start of the season because at the moment I really have no idea of what I’m going to do!
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