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E-mailWill Lewis get off to a good start?
0 Comments Published by John on Thursday, October 30, 2008 at 6:40 PM.
The markets get a bit stale towards the end of the season. Everyone thinks they know what will happen and jumps in early or they are cautious and hold back till the Friday, which means there’s not much action in the meantime. I normally have a flutter on the first practice session which has done so so over the course of the year so with not much happening I’ve had a closer look at what’s on offer for ‘Who will top first practice?’
Lewis has topped the first practice session for the last 3 races (China, Japan and Singapore). Is it a case of those tracks suiting the car or him, or is there a trend here? I have noticed of late that Lewis tends to do a short stint at some point in the first session which is usually the one which sets him the fastest time (I’m talking 3/4 laps at most when most others will do 5-7 lap stints in P1). This seems to be some kind of testing pattern the team have been using. Maybe there is some technical reason for it or maybe its purely physiological and they/Lewis want to get off to a good start.
I would have expected his odds to be around 2.5 to top the first practice session but most bookies have him at 2.75. This is expected to be a Ferrari track so that may have something to do with it – no doubt the long up hill climb will benefit the red cars better, but with less fuel on a 3 lap stint it may not matter. I’m not really that interest in 2.75 but Coral are offering 3.25 which look’s interesting given the above.
Don’t take this as a tip – I’ve not yet taken the bet on myself as the weather is a concern. The weather is expected to be wet which could be to Lewis’ benefit should it be a light drizzle, but will mean anyone could top the session with heavy rain.
Lewis has topped the first practice session for the last 3 races (China, Japan and Singapore). Is it a case of those tracks suiting the car or him, or is there a trend here? I have noticed of late that Lewis tends to do a short stint at some point in the first session which is usually the one which sets him the fastest time (I’m talking 3/4 laps at most when most others will do 5-7 lap stints in P1). This seems to be some kind of testing pattern the team have been using. Maybe there is some technical reason for it or maybe its purely physiological and they/Lewis want to get off to a good start.
I would have expected his odds to be around 2.5 to top the first practice session but most bookies have him at 2.75. This is expected to be a Ferrari track so that may have something to do with it – no doubt the long up hill climb will benefit the red cars better, but with less fuel on a 3 lap stint it may not matter. I’m not really that interest in 2.75 but Coral are offering 3.25 which look’s interesting given the above.
Don’t take this as a tip – I’ve not yet taken the bet on myself as the weather is a concern. The weather is expected to be wet which could be to Lewis’ benefit should it be a light drizzle, but will mean anyone could top the session with heavy rain.
Although it’s normally a disadvantage to only be able to trade your selected event every other weekend there is one big advantage –the long break since my loss in China has given me plenty of time to think about ‘what went wrong’ and ‘what could have gone better’. Of course a lot of it is down to luck but after a loss it’s very easy to get carried away and try chasing that loss. If you have nothing to trade on for another 2 weeks it gives you plenty of time to re-set your mind and start over again.
Hopefully I don’t need to explain what’s at stake this weekend in Brazil. I’m looking forward to it more than last year for some reason, maybe because this season has had so many surprises you can help but think there’s one last twist ( not that you could top last year’s twist). Formula1.com have done a list of the permutations which can be found here….what ones your money on?
Its always hard to tackle a race weekend when the championship can be decided as was the case last weekend. In effect there are two races going on - the normal Brazilian GP and the championship race. There are 4 cars who could play a part in the championship race and another 16 in the normal race. None of the cars in the either race car too much for the other and it gets more complicated when you consider the two team mates may /not have to play a role.
For example Kimi has out-qualified Massa in the last two races and seems to finally be on top of his set-up troubles. In a normal mid-season race I wouldn’t hesitate to back Kimi @ 7 for pole as he is this weekend. But of course the main reason he’s that price is because out of their two drivers, you would think Ferrari want Massa on pole. That may not be the case though and pole means nothing at the end of Sunday - but there’s still that nagging thought.
There are a couple of prices that look good which I will keep to myself until I get matched. Once again there is a chance rain could disrupt the weekend so I’m looking mostly at in-play trades.
When the pressure has been on them the two rivals have not exactly shone brightly this year – you could say Lewis done well in China but at no point during the weekend did Ferrari look quick enough to put any real pressure on him. The weekend as I see it will go one of two ways: 1) Lewis to repeat his performance in China and lead all weekend 2) It’s a close run thing which will likely result in an error by one of the two contenders / FIA decision deciding it / weather causing a Force India to win after a safety car on the last lap resulting in Lewis finishing outside the points and Massa 2nd.
If it’s 1 then SkyBets 9/1 for Lewis to score a hat-trick (pole/win/fastest lap) would not be a bad covering bet.
Hopefully I don’t need to explain what’s at stake this weekend in Brazil. I’m looking forward to it more than last year for some reason, maybe because this season has had so many surprises you can help but think there’s one last twist ( not that you could top last year’s twist). Formula1.com have done a list of the permutations which can be found here….what ones your money on?
Its always hard to tackle a race weekend when the championship can be decided as was the case last weekend. In effect there are two races going on - the normal Brazilian GP and the championship race. There are 4 cars who could play a part in the championship race and another 16 in the normal race. None of the cars in the either race car too much for the other and it gets more complicated when you consider the two team mates may /not have to play a role.
For example Kimi has out-qualified Massa in the last two races and seems to finally be on top of his set-up troubles. In a normal mid-season race I wouldn’t hesitate to back Kimi @ 7 for pole as he is this weekend. But of course the main reason he’s that price is because out of their two drivers, you would think Ferrari want Massa on pole. That may not be the case though and pole means nothing at the end of Sunday - but there’s still that nagging thought.
There are a couple of prices that look good which I will keep to myself until I get matched. Once again there is a chance rain could disrupt the weekend so I’m looking mostly at in-play trades.
When the pressure has been on them the two rivals have not exactly shone brightly this year – you could say Lewis done well in China but at no point during the weekend did Ferrari look quick enough to put any real pressure on him. The weekend as I see it will go one of two ways: 1) Lewis to repeat his performance in China and lead all weekend 2) It’s a close run thing which will likely result in an error by one of the two contenders / FIA decision deciding it / weather causing a Force India to win after a safety car on the last lap resulting in Lewis finishing outside the points and Massa 2nd.
If it’s 1 then SkyBets 9/1 for Lewis to score a hat-trick (pole/win/fastest lap) would not be a bad covering bet.
This morning did not go to plan and I suffered my biggest loss of the year – but it’s not all my fault!
The positive thing is the loss falls within my limits so at least I stuck to money management rules. Now the negative things…..
Betdaq
The first time I have tried to use them for F1 betting and what happens – disaster! I logged on before the race to be faced with a message stating something along the lines of *unplanned outage* and the whole Betdaq site was down. I had taken a position on Kimi which although turned out to be a loosing one was the right position to take. I would have been able to trade out for a loss but one that was within my planned stop loss for that trade. As it turned out I lost the whole stake!!
To add insult to injury, I was trying to access Betdaq from my laptop and kept refreshing it during the race to see if it was back up – it never worked. After the race I tried to access it on my desktop pc and it worked – refreshed the laptop – still down!. I have no idea when the site went back up and I may have been able to salvage some of the stake but seems my laptop browser kept refreshing the cached page rather than loading a new one.
I didn’t have enough funds in Betfair to lay off the bet with them – maybe a good idea in the future to make sure I can cover bets across both sites.
Crap happens and this is the first time this season I’ve had a ‘technical issue’ so I should count myself lucky the overall loss did not exceed my limits.
The situation with Betdaq didn’t put me in the right frame of mind to trade. Had I not already taken some positions I would probably have not done anything on the race and just accepted a loss on Kimi. Instead my whole race was spent trying to close positions to reduce overall liability and stop the day turning into a complete nightmare.
The race itself was straight forward and didn’t provide many chances to trade. Had I been able to exit the Kimi trade I would have backed Lewis and things would have been different.
The blog
My biggest disappointment is the fact I spent all week posting and was hoping it would be a good example of what I do. Instead all the build up has turned into nothing and it feels like a waste.
Hopefully if you did follow me through the week you got an idea of my thinking and trading style.
One more positive
I moved a lay of Lewis for the championship to a back before qualy so this may help reduce some of the loss. (That’s if he doesn’t throw it away again)
See you in two weeks time.
The positive thing is the loss falls within my limits so at least I stuck to money management rules. Now the negative things…..
Betdaq
The first time I have tried to use them for F1 betting and what happens – disaster! I logged on before the race to be faced with a message stating something along the lines of *unplanned outage* and the whole Betdaq site was down. I had taken a position on Kimi which although turned out to be a loosing one was the right position to take. I would have been able to trade out for a loss but one that was within my planned stop loss for that trade. As it turned out I lost the whole stake!!
To add insult to injury, I was trying to access Betdaq from my laptop and kept refreshing it during the race to see if it was back up – it never worked. After the race I tried to access it on my desktop pc and it worked – refreshed the laptop – still down!. I have no idea when the site went back up and I may have been able to salvage some of the stake but seems my laptop browser kept refreshing the cached page rather than loading a new one.
I didn’t have enough funds in Betfair to lay off the bet with them – maybe a good idea in the future to make sure I can cover bets across both sites.
Crap happens and this is the first time this season I’ve had a ‘technical issue’ so I should count myself lucky the overall loss did not exceed my limits.
The situation with Betdaq didn’t put me in the right frame of mind to trade. Had I not already taken some positions I would probably have not done anything on the race and just accepted a loss on Kimi. Instead my whole race was spent trying to close positions to reduce overall liability and stop the day turning into a complete nightmare.
The race itself was straight forward and didn’t provide many chances to trade. Had I been able to exit the Kimi trade I would have backed Lewis and things would have been different.
The blog
My biggest disappointment is the fact I spent all week posting and was hoping it would be a good example of what I do. Instead all the build up has turned into nothing and it feels like a waste.
Hopefully if you did follow me through the week you got an idea of my thinking and trading style.
One more positive
I moved a lay of Lewis for the championship to a back before qualy so this may help reduce some of the loss. (That’s if he doesn’t throw it away again)
See you in two weeks time.
This morning put me in profit for the weekend so far, but only just and it wasn’t easy going.
Webber
The day started with a loss in 3rd practice. The odds on Webber did move out to 50/1 in-play and I think he would have had a good chance had his engine not blown up!
This is the worst case scenario when betting/trading on F1. For those who don’t know, a blown engine before the race means you receive a ten place grid penalty - ie the position I took on Webber for a points finish before 3rd practice now looked awful.
Luckily practice was in the early hours for most European countries and not many people were trading. I had to lay Webber at a price higher than my entry and therefore taking a loss. However the price was not reflecting the fact he would be penalised so I layed more than I needed and then backed again for £1 loss when the market reacted later on. Lucky to get away with that one although if more money was about I may have made a profit!
Kubica
I originally had him in my group as a long shot for pole but after watching the practice sessions it was evident he couldn’t find the right set up. Firstly he was complaining over the radio and secondly his team mate Heidfeld was looking quicker than him. Fair enough Heidfeld could just have been quick but seeing as I had him in my ‘on the brink’ group things didn’t look good for Kubica. I traded his price between 1.1 and 1.3 a few times to end up with a free bet should he not make it. He didn’t make it which all but puts and end to his title hopes. A shame really because if I had to choose between him, Lewis and Massa to win the championship I would choose Kubica.
Kimi
When his odds reached 9’s before qualy I decided it was too good a chance to miss. All the bookies had him at 5’s which was not a bad price itself so I choose this as my main position. I traded back out at an average price of 7.3 which is not great. It’s a profit but I think he hit 3’s after setting the fastest time on the first flying laps. I was ready to trade out but everyone realised Hamilton had made a mistake on his lap which would have been quicker and had another chance to go for it. This caused Kimi’s price to drift out again. I decided not to take the price seeing as he was currently sitting on pole and there was a long way to go before the price drifted to my entry point. Probably a bit greedy but if I can get away with leaving a position as an outright bet it makes one hell of a difference to the profit at the end of the day. It wasn’t to be and I was able to get out with a small profit from the trade.
Heikki
I think his interview on ITV after qualy said it all (he was not a happy bunny for those who didn’t see it). Rightly so because he had the pace to beet Lewis today (not many people will agree with me on that!) and should have done. After setting a good first flying lap I decided to have a small back @ 5.00. His second run amounted to nothing and I had to take a loss on this one. If he can get it together next year he will be the ‘value man’. Massa was the value man for pole at the start of this season – some drivers are under rated and represent great value at certain times.
Tomorrows Race
There’s not much I can say about the race at the moment. With the weather being uncertain you need to choose positions which look good if it's dry and then even better if it rains. For example you don't want to back Massa for the win now because if it's raining in the morning, rightly or wrongly, his price will drift (he's not considered a good wet racer by most).
Vettel qualified 8th but will start 6th thanks to Webber and Heidfeld getting penalties. This means with a good amount of fuel he should be strong. He’s @11 for a podium place which is a long shot but worth a go – if it rains it’s even better value.
Bourdais in the other Toro Rosso looks good for points starting 8th. A small back on him earlier in the week may be added to tomorrow - I’m hesitating because I’m not sure what his wet weather racing is like.
I have a good position on Lewis for fastest lap @ average odds 4.5. Kimi is likely to get the honour again but I should be able to trade this price and again rain will only make this better.
Kimi is 7.4 to win the race and 5 to lead the first lap. He’s got nothing to loose this weekend (his title hopes went last race) and Lewis will be weary going into the very long first corner. The downside is he may have to yield to Massa for WDC reasons but that assumes Massa will be on the pace and able to beat Lewis. If he can’t Massa would prefer Kimi to win the race. Looks a good bet to me but this is weather permitting.
The latest forecasts show any rain will be light rain. This is worse than heavy rain because it causes tyre choice issues. Going on past forecasts this season I’d like to put a bet on there being no rain!
Edit: Screw the weather - that price on Kimi is too good. Sportingbet have just cut it to 5.5. so 7.4 looks a great price - i'm going to take it with Betdaq which for the first time actually looks good for an F1 race - maybe next season I will be using Betdaq.......
Webber
The day started with a loss in 3rd practice. The odds on Webber did move out to 50/1 in-play and I think he would have had a good chance had his engine not blown up!
This is the worst case scenario when betting/trading on F1. For those who don’t know, a blown engine before the race means you receive a ten place grid penalty - ie the position I took on Webber for a points finish before 3rd practice now looked awful.
Luckily practice was in the early hours for most European countries and not many people were trading. I had to lay Webber at a price higher than my entry and therefore taking a loss. However the price was not reflecting the fact he would be penalised so I layed more than I needed and then backed again for £1 loss when the market reacted later on. Lucky to get away with that one although if more money was about I may have made a profit!
Kubica
I originally had him in my group as a long shot for pole but after watching the practice sessions it was evident he couldn’t find the right set up. Firstly he was complaining over the radio and secondly his team mate Heidfeld was looking quicker than him. Fair enough Heidfeld could just have been quick but seeing as I had him in my ‘on the brink’ group things didn’t look good for Kubica. I traded his price between 1.1 and 1.3 a few times to end up with a free bet should he not make it. He didn’t make it which all but puts and end to his title hopes. A shame really because if I had to choose between him, Lewis and Massa to win the championship I would choose Kubica.
Kimi
When his odds reached 9’s before qualy I decided it was too good a chance to miss. All the bookies had him at 5’s which was not a bad price itself so I choose this as my main position. I traded back out at an average price of 7.3 which is not great. It’s a profit but I think he hit 3’s after setting the fastest time on the first flying laps. I was ready to trade out but everyone realised Hamilton had made a mistake on his lap which would have been quicker and had another chance to go for it. This caused Kimi’s price to drift out again. I decided not to take the price seeing as he was currently sitting on pole and there was a long way to go before the price drifted to my entry point. Probably a bit greedy but if I can get away with leaving a position as an outright bet it makes one hell of a difference to the profit at the end of the day. It wasn’t to be and I was able to get out with a small profit from the trade.
Heikki
I think his interview on ITV after qualy said it all (he was not a happy bunny for those who didn’t see it). Rightly so because he had the pace to beet Lewis today (not many people will agree with me on that!) and should have done. After setting a good first flying lap I decided to have a small back @ 5.00. His second run amounted to nothing and I had to take a loss on this one. If he can get it together next year he will be the ‘value man’. Massa was the value man for pole at the start of this season – some drivers are under rated and represent great value at certain times.
Tomorrows Race
There’s not much I can say about the race at the moment. With the weather being uncertain you need to choose positions which look good if it's dry and then even better if it rains. For example you don't want to back Massa for the win now because if it's raining in the morning, rightly or wrongly, his price will drift (he's not considered a good wet racer by most).
Vettel qualified 8th but will start 6th thanks to Webber and Heidfeld getting penalties. This means with a good amount of fuel he should be strong. He’s @11 for a podium place which is a long shot but worth a go – if it rains it’s even better value.
Bourdais in the other Toro Rosso looks good for points starting 8th. A small back on him earlier in the week may be added to tomorrow - I’m hesitating because I’m not sure what his wet weather racing is like.
I have a good position on Lewis for fastest lap @ average odds 4.5. Kimi is likely to get the honour again but I should be able to trade this price and again rain will only make this better.
Kimi is 7.4 to win the race and 5 to lead the first lap. He’s got nothing to loose this weekend (his title hopes went last race) and Lewis will be weary going into the very long first corner. The downside is he may have to yield to Massa for WDC reasons but that assumes Massa will be on the pace and able to beat Lewis. If he can’t Massa would prefer Kimi to win the race. Looks a good bet to me but this is weather permitting.
The latest forecasts show any rain will be light rain. This is worse than heavy rain because it causes tyre choice issues. Going on past forecasts this season I’d like to put a bet on there being no rain!
Edit: Screw the weather - that price on Kimi is too good. Sportingbet have just cut it to 5.5. so 7.4 looks a great price - i'm going to take it with Betdaq which for the first time actually looks good for an F1 race - maybe next season I will be using Betdaq.......
A quick post on the happenings since my update this morning. Lewis did drop a bit lower than 2.5 and then picked up again and settled at 2.58. Looking at the graph some lucky fella got matched on a lay of 1.80 in a ‘blip’ before the market rose up.
The latest weather updates show there is now a possibility of rain for qualy. It’s a small chance of rain but the cloud cover will keep the track cool-ish and will not be good news for a few teams.
Of the BMW’s it’s Kubica who looks to be struggling and I’d rather take him on than Heidfeld for not making the top 10. There’s another practice session to go and weather/track conditions could be completely different for everyone (even if it’s not raining sometimes the track is a whole new animal on the Saturday) so these positions will not be entered yet.
Bourdais for a points finish is looking good and also Mark Webber. Red Bull have been shown up by their sister team lately however Webber drove a great race last year and would have been on the podium if it wasn’t for Vettel taking him out – he’s at mid 20’s to get a podium this year. A long shot at the moment but if the rain comes it could be worth a look.
If Lewis is equally quick in P3 as he has been today I can’t see Ferrari catching him. Massa needs to win but getting pole may need the Ferrari to go light which won’t do any good for his race. Maybe they can try and use Kimi on a light fuel load although getting him to oblige may be hard work. Keep an eye on Kimi because he is now trading at 8.6 whilst most bookies have him at 5’s.
In the early part of the season BET365 must have got stung badly with their ‘who will top P3’ offers. Nowadays they have runners which used to be 50+ priced in the 10’s so all the value has gone. The offers do go in play and sometimes you can still get a bargain – for some reason I fancy Webber to top this session so hopefully his in-play odds will be significantly higher than the 13 offered now.
The latest weather updates show there is now a possibility of rain for qualy. It’s a small chance of rain but the cloud cover will keep the track cool-ish and will not be good news for a few teams.
Of the BMW’s it’s Kubica who looks to be struggling and I’d rather take him on than Heidfeld for not making the top 10. There’s another practice session to go and weather/track conditions could be completely different for everyone (even if it’s not raining sometimes the track is a whole new animal on the Saturday) so these positions will not be entered yet.
Bourdais for a points finish is looking good and also Mark Webber. Red Bull have been shown up by their sister team lately however Webber drove a great race last year and would have been on the podium if it wasn’t for Vettel taking him out – he’s at mid 20’s to get a podium this year. A long shot at the moment but if the rain comes it could be worth a look.
If Lewis is equally quick in P3 as he has been today I can’t see Ferrari catching him. Massa needs to win but getting pole may need the Ferrari to go light which won’t do any good for his race. Maybe they can try and use Kimi on a light fuel load although getting him to oblige may be hard work. Keep an eye on Kimi because he is now trading at 8.6 whilst most bookies have him at 5’s.
In the early part of the season BET365 must have got stung badly with their ‘who will top P3’ offers. Nowadays they have runners which used to be 50+ priced in the 10’s so all the value has gone. The offers do go in play and sometimes you can still get a bargain – for some reason I fancy Webber to top this session so hopefully his in-play odds will be significantly higher than the 13 offered now.
Not the greatest start to the weekend but things aren’t looking too bad now.
In the first session Heikki got off to a great start and looked very strong. I backed him at average odds of 17 but after his good start it looked like he continued with heavy fuel runs for the rest of the day. This doesn’t mean he’s slow but I know the odds will depend on the general look of the timesheets and was therefore expecting is his odds to drift. I traded out for a small loss on the basis he’s now likely to trade in the 20’s and may be able to get a better position on him later in the day. Sure enough the highest bookies odds are 19 so I should be able to get at least 20 on Betfair if I want to back him again. (Someone just put in a back order for £100@15 – you can back him at 19 with the bookies????)
I lost the outright on Heikki to top P1 and also tried for Alonso to top P2 @ 17 which also lost, although he was only just shy posting the 2nd quickest time. I don’t mind losses in this market because when you win the rewards are massive and I’ve had a good return so far this year.
I have made one successful trade which puts me in a good position. Lewis was very very quick compared to the others in P2 and with it looking like he would end the day at the top of both sessions, I backed him at 2.8. This is lower than my odds suggested earlier in the week but things change on a Friday. I traded back out at 2.52 because most bookies re-priced him at 2.5. I maybe could have left the liability there overnight but again I need to look into his times more carefully.
The interesting thing from today is the softer tyre doesn’t appear to be much quicker (if at all) than the harder tyre. In the past it’s been tough choice for Hamilton as to which tyre to make the final qualy run on when there’s not much difference between the two - in Turkey this year he lost out because he made the wrong choice of using the harder tyre. It affects all the drivers but for some reason hampers Lewis more.
Looking at last years race there was roughly 0.2 second difference between the two tyres on Friday. As more rubber got put down on Saturday the difference moved to 0.5 in favour of the softer tyre. Maybe the same will happen this weekend but at the moment I would say the difference is 0.1 in favour of the hard tyre, although it all depends on what team and driver you look at I will keep an eye out on all the driver and Bridgestone press releases for comments about this. This may sound trivial but will be vital to who gets pole tomorrow so I don’t want any liability until I get my head around what the situation is.
Quickly looking at the other markets and I still don’t see much of interest. Heidfeld actually looks quicker than I expected so I will forget about laying him to reach Q3 (the odds have now moved to the 1.28 mark as mentioned earlier in the week).
With the weather for Sunday now showing a high chance of rain and storms the safety may be worth a look (currently 2.2). If the teams expect rain on Sunday this also makes a difference to what happens in qualy. Some may use a dry set-up to get up the grid and some may use a wet set-up to have a good race pace. Also, how much fuel do you use in qualy if you expect rain? Heavy would be good but if the track is damp and drying you want to come in early! So many things to think about ! I’m glad I’m not betting on this……
In the first session Heikki got off to a great start and looked very strong. I backed him at average odds of 17 but after his good start it looked like he continued with heavy fuel runs for the rest of the day. This doesn’t mean he’s slow but I know the odds will depend on the general look of the timesheets and was therefore expecting is his odds to drift. I traded out for a small loss on the basis he’s now likely to trade in the 20’s and may be able to get a better position on him later in the day. Sure enough the highest bookies odds are 19 so I should be able to get at least 20 on Betfair if I want to back him again. (Someone just put in a back order for £100@15 – you can back him at 19 with the bookies????)
I lost the outright on Heikki to top P1 and also tried for Alonso to top P2 @ 17 which also lost, although he was only just shy posting the 2nd quickest time. I don’t mind losses in this market because when you win the rewards are massive and I’ve had a good return so far this year.
I have made one successful trade which puts me in a good position. Lewis was very very quick compared to the others in P2 and with it looking like he would end the day at the top of both sessions, I backed him at 2.8. This is lower than my odds suggested earlier in the week but things change on a Friday. I traded back out at 2.52 because most bookies re-priced him at 2.5. I maybe could have left the liability there overnight but again I need to look into his times more carefully.
The interesting thing from today is the softer tyre doesn’t appear to be much quicker (if at all) than the harder tyre. In the past it’s been tough choice for Hamilton as to which tyre to make the final qualy run on when there’s not much difference between the two - in Turkey this year he lost out because he made the wrong choice of using the harder tyre. It affects all the drivers but for some reason hampers Lewis more.
Looking at last years race there was roughly 0.2 second difference between the two tyres on Friday. As more rubber got put down on Saturday the difference moved to 0.5 in favour of the softer tyre. Maybe the same will happen this weekend but at the moment I would say the difference is 0.1 in favour of the hard tyre, although it all depends on what team and driver you look at I will keep an eye out on all the driver and Bridgestone press releases for comments about this. This may sound trivial but will be vital to who gets pole tomorrow so I don’t want any liability until I get my head around what the situation is.
Quickly looking at the other markets and I still don’t see much of interest. Heidfeld actually looks quicker than I expected so I will forget about laying him to reach Q3 (the odds have now moved to the 1.28 mark as mentioned earlier in the week).
With the weather for Sunday now showing a high chance of rain and storms the safety may be worth a look (currently 2.2). If the teams expect rain on Sunday this also makes a difference to what happens in qualy. Some may use a dry set-up to get up the grid and some may use a wet set-up to have a good race pace. Also, how much fuel do you use in qualy if you expect rain? Heavy would be good but if the track is damp and drying you want to come in early! So many things to think about ! I’m glad I’m not betting on this……
I have taken down all the odds available and recorded them in my notes. I done this earlier in the week and will continue to do so for the rest of the weekend. I have records of the odds at every race this year and in 2007. It means nothing now but Lewis was trading at 5.2 last year to get pole –a nice win for me there! It was a perfect example of the value odds you get at some races, unfortunately this weekend seems to be a bit poor.
After going through some more notes and looking at minute details to see if I can find any pattern with which to base a position, I must admit to being at a loss so far this week. Maybe it’s because the championship is so tight and with so much pressure on two drivers who so far this year have not exactly handled that pressure well, everything looks a bit risky.
Maybe this is why both Kimi and Heikki are starting to look a bit more appealing to me. Neither of them has traded at odds I’d want but their not far off. Their odds could shorten if they look strong in practice (but not by a great deal because most people will be backing Lewis and Massa) so I don’t want to miss anything because I was holding out for a few more ticks. On the other hand, taking their current odds could see me trading out for a loss if they don’t look strong and then I will regret taking a position simply because I didn’t want to miss out.
The other problem here is I feel both drivers will be strong in the first practice session so I may not get a chance to back that high for the rest of the weekend. I’m going to keep an eye on them at the start of practice and take anything if there is a sign they look quick.
Bet365 have Heikki at 15 to top first practice which I feel is a value bet. I’ve placed my first bet of the week but because it’s an outright the stake is small. Statistically the Ferrari’s have topped the first practice on tracks with hard tyres but I’m not interested in the 3 and 3.75 on offer for them to achieve this. If Kimi tops first practice I would be interest in the 6.6 currently on offer for pole.
I was hoping to have made a few trades before now so I could have documented them but it’s not turned out that way. Some races are like that and I think a lot of people are holding back until qualy. I’m off to bed now as my alarm is set for 2:30am. See you in the morning when hopefully I will have some liability on at least one runner!
After going through some more notes and looking at minute details to see if I can find any pattern with which to base a position, I must admit to being at a loss so far this week. Maybe it’s because the championship is so tight and with so much pressure on two drivers who so far this year have not exactly handled that pressure well, everything looks a bit risky.
Maybe this is why both Kimi and Heikki are starting to look a bit more appealing to me. Neither of them has traded at odds I’d want but their not far off. Their odds could shorten if they look strong in practice (but not by a great deal because most people will be backing Lewis and Massa) so I don’t want to miss anything because I was holding out for a few more ticks. On the other hand, taking their current odds could see me trading out for a loss if they don’t look strong and then I will regret taking a position simply because I didn’t want to miss out.
The other problem here is I feel both drivers will be strong in the first practice session so I may not get a chance to back that high for the rest of the weekend. I’m going to keep an eye on them at the start of practice and take anything if there is a sign they look quick.
Bet365 have Heikki at 15 to top first practice which I feel is a value bet. I’ve placed my first bet of the week but because it’s an outright the stake is small. Statistically the Ferrari’s have topped the first practice on tracks with hard tyres but I’m not interested in the 3 and 3.75 on offer for them to achieve this. If Kimi tops first practice I would be interest in the 6.6 currently on offer for pole.
I was hoping to have made a few trades before now so I could have documented them but it’s not turned out that way. Some races are like that and I think a lot of people are holding back until qualy. I’m off to bed now as my alarm is set for 2:30am. See you in the morning when hopefully I will have some liability on at least one runner!
Today’s time is spent looking into yesterday’s findings in more detail and comparing them to the odds available.
The longer shots
Yesterday SportingBet.com had Vettel at 81 for pole position and today they have cut his price to 21. My first thought was has the weather forecast changed but after checking a few sites it’s still expected to be dry on Saturday. Maybe I’ve missed something with regards to the track/tyres combination that favours the Toro Rosso? On checking the stats there is nothing outstanding about Toro Rosso on the hard tyres. Monza (where Vettel won) was a hard tyre track but the wets and inters were used for the most part so I don’t think you can count that. I’m going to put this down to them attracting a lot of business on a selection priced much higher than any competitor and they are now balancing their book. I will keep an eye on the weather because maybe they know something I don’t. I stick by yesterday’s comment that he needs to be over 100/1 for it to be worth a look as I expect him to qualify 7th/8th.
Whilst looking into Vettel’s tyre situation I noticed Heikki has been in the top 3 for most tracks where the harder tyres are used. He’s also done better than Lewis on some of those tracks so maybe my price of 25 is slightly too high. If he tops 20’s I will take a look at this again.
The pole contenders
Interestingly SportingBet have lengthened the odds on Lewis and now Betfair is also trading higher on all 3 of my runners. Odds yesterday on Lewis, Massa and Kimi of 2.82, 3.15 and 5.5 respectively can now be found for 3.1, 3.45 and 6.8. Looks like it would have been worth laying them but you probably wouldn’t have got matched and in a low liquidity market there’s not much to stop a price jumping about so you can easily get caught out.
Lewis is starting to look a good price now which causes a problem because I don’t want a position on all three of them. At the moment I’m more inclined to go for Lewis and Kimi if their price drifts a tiny bit more.
With the odds as they are now you could dutch Lewis, Massa, Kimi and Heikki for roughly a 20% return if any of them take pole. Not bad considering they are the four drivers in what are the quickest two cars on the grid.
On the brink
My first bet of the week!....but I don’t expect it to get matched. A lay on Nick Heidfeld @1.06 to make Q3 - he will probably end up trading around 1.3 so this is very hopeful but if you don’t ask you don’t get.
A quick look at the other markets
I don’t like getting money tied up in the race markets before qualy. You can make a great trade if you’re on the right man by getting matched before qualy and then trading afterwards but if you’re on the wrong man it will cost you. In my experience you loose more than you win. I take a look to see if there are any positions which wouldn’t move against me too much and have the potential to go in my favour considerably.
Bourdais for a points finish and Heikki for a podium may prove worthwhile in that respect. It’s too hard to tell at the moment though because there’s no money about. Come Friday things should have picked up so I will look into these later. There is nothing of interest to me in the race winner market – there is a long way to go between now and Sunday afternoon.
Those who trade horses may find it strange I have spent three days looking at these markets and I’m yet to make any real bets/positions. Think of the whole week as one horse race spread out over that time. You wouldn’t take a position on a soon as you open the market – you would watch and get a feel for how the market was moving and the behaviour of the prices. There are over 48 hours to go before the first practice session so I have plenty of time to take a position. Even then there’s another 24 hours to go before the qualifying market goes in-play!
The longer shots
Yesterday SportingBet.com had Vettel at 81 for pole position and today they have cut his price to 21. My first thought was has the weather forecast changed but after checking a few sites it’s still expected to be dry on Saturday. Maybe I’ve missed something with regards to the track/tyres combination that favours the Toro Rosso? On checking the stats there is nothing outstanding about Toro Rosso on the hard tyres. Monza (where Vettel won) was a hard tyre track but the wets and inters were used for the most part so I don’t think you can count that. I’m going to put this down to them attracting a lot of business on a selection priced much higher than any competitor and they are now balancing their book. I will keep an eye on the weather because maybe they know something I don’t. I stick by yesterday’s comment that he needs to be over 100/1 for it to be worth a look as I expect him to qualify 7th/8th.
Whilst looking into Vettel’s tyre situation I noticed Heikki has been in the top 3 for most tracks where the harder tyres are used. He’s also done better than Lewis on some of those tracks so maybe my price of 25 is slightly too high. If he tops 20’s I will take a look at this again.
The pole contenders
Interestingly SportingBet have lengthened the odds on Lewis and now Betfair is also trading higher on all 3 of my runners. Odds yesterday on Lewis, Massa and Kimi of 2.82, 3.15 and 5.5 respectively can now be found for 3.1, 3.45 and 6.8. Looks like it would have been worth laying them but you probably wouldn’t have got matched and in a low liquidity market there’s not much to stop a price jumping about so you can easily get caught out.
Lewis is starting to look a good price now which causes a problem because I don’t want a position on all three of them. At the moment I’m more inclined to go for Lewis and Kimi if their price drifts a tiny bit more.
With the odds as they are now you could dutch Lewis, Massa, Kimi and Heikki for roughly a 20% return if any of them take pole. Not bad considering they are the four drivers in what are the quickest two cars on the grid.
On the brink
My first bet of the week!....but I don’t expect it to get matched. A lay on Nick Heidfeld @1.06 to make Q3 - he will probably end up trading around 1.3 so this is very hopeful but if you don’t ask you don’t get.
A quick look at the other markets
I don’t like getting money tied up in the race markets before qualy. You can make a great trade if you’re on the right man by getting matched before qualy and then trading afterwards but if you’re on the wrong man it will cost you. In my experience you loose more than you win. I take a look to see if there are any positions which wouldn’t move against me too much and have the potential to go in my favour considerably.
Bourdais for a points finish and Heikki for a podium may prove worthwhile in that respect. It’s too hard to tell at the moment though because there’s no money about. Come Friday things should have picked up so I will look into these later. There is nothing of interest to me in the race winner market – there is a long way to go between now and Sunday afternoon.
Those who trade horses may find it strange I have spent three days looking at these markets and I’m yet to make any real bets/positions. Think of the whole week as one horse race spread out over that time. You wouldn’t take a position on a soon as you open the market – you would watch and get a feel for how the market was moving and the behaviour of the prices. There are over 48 hours to go before the first practice session so I have plenty of time to take a position. Even then there’s another 24 hours to go before the qualifying market goes in-play!
After yesterdays research we now need to work out which cars and drivers should be on the pace this weekend. The key to the whole weekend is working out where someone will qualify.
The Groups
I’m not trying to make predictions on who will get pole here – this is just a general overview which I will then look into in more detail. The best way I have found to do this is by breaking the drivers down into groups of expectation and then taking it from there.
Using my notes from previous years and past results this year on similar tracks (ie not making any assumptions)I get the following:
1. The Pole contenders:
Lewis, Massa, Kimi
2. The long shot pole runners:
Heikki, Kubica, Alonso, Vettel
3. On the brink:
Heidfeld, Trulli, Webber, Piquet, Glock, Rosberg, Bourdais
4. Likely to qualy 13th or lower:
Sutil, Fisichella, Button, Rubens, Nakajima, Coulthard
If you follow F1 this may seem fairly obvious but breaking them into these groups allows me to concentrate on certain areas. I can now ignore group 4 until later in the week as my research has shown they should show little promise in qualy. Group 3 are the drivers I will be looking at for the ‘to reach Q3?’ market. This market has poor liquidity so I will also look into this later in the week.
2. The long shot pole Runners
These drivers potentially could get pole in certain circumstances and if the odds are long enough, could well be worth a punt.
Heikki: McLaren could run him light but this now appears to be a tactic they are avoiding. We don’t know how much fuel he had in Japan – I suspect it was more than the other top 6 cars so getting 3rd was a good result. I’d want odds over 25 this time around before I got interested.
Kubica: Still in the title hunt so will BMW finally push for it. The cars outright pace is not there so it would need to be light fuel – in Japan he had 17 laps, the same as Lewis/Kimi and only managed 6th. The harder tyres may not be great for the BMW either. The odds need to be at least 50+ for it to be worthwhile. I debated putting him in group 3 this weekend to be honest.
Alonso: He’s on form and the Renault looks quicker than BMW, but not quite on the top two’s pace. Renault now know they have a good race pace so getting as high up the grid as possible to make use of that may be on Pat Symonds mind. Keep an eye on his practice times as the hard tyres may not suit them so well – if he’s on the pace again take anything over 15’s.
Vettel: Not showing the blinding pace they did in Valencia and Monza but Toro Rosso are still quick. It would need some kind of wonder lap to take pole but there is a chance his odds could top 100/1 before qualy in which case it has to be worth a couple of quid on a back position. He's in this group because I expect him to reach Q3.
1. The pole contenders
I would expect the pole sitter to be one of these drivers.
Lewis: McLarens qualifying pace is what’s kept Lewis in the hunt thanks to the way they use the tyres. His concern will be how those tyres get used during the race as this may affect what strategy he uses and therefore what fuel loads to start with. Keep an eye on the stints in practice and how the tyres hold up. Normally trading at 2.5 – 3 he doesn’t show much value on either the back or lay side.
Massa: Ferrari are very strong on this track but the harder tyres traditionally have not suited them as well as McLaren. Massa did test them before Singapore and was happy with the results so maybe this won’t be such a problem. He managed to qualify 4th in the Sauber back in 2005 which shows he can put a good lap together. Unfortunately the rest of his results here have been patchy. We could see another perfect lap such as the pole in Singapore and in the last races he’s been around 3.25 for pole which may be worth a look.
Kimi: Up until Japan he was in my 2nd group - It looks like the real Kimi decided to turn up for qualy but there’s no guarantee he will be there this Saturday. A bit of a risk sticking him in this category but the reason is simple – in past races he’s been trading as high as 8 for pole. Anything near that this weekend has to be worth a look seeing as he has the car and possibly lighter fuel load to stick it at the front of the grid. I would not want to get involved any lower than 7’s because if he doesn’t show pace on Friday the odds won’t be slow in moving out.
Having now looked at Massa and Kimi, Lewis may be worth a lay if he dips below 2.5.
Finally – a look a t the odds
These groups and runners odds are not set in stone for the rest of the week. I will update them all the time as new information and data comes in. This is simply a good starting point which allows me to look at the odds and start to take any positions I like the look of.
After checking the odds at oddschecker and the exchanges everyone appears to be a bit tight this week! Normally I would find a bet I like the look of however most runners seem priced about right. Saying that, both Massa and Kimi look like they could move into my range. There has also been only £726 matched in the qualy market so it’s still very early days. Worth taking an early look though because sometimes you’ll catch a gem. Anyway that’s enough for today – more about the odds tomorrow.
The Groups
I’m not trying to make predictions on who will get pole here – this is just a general overview which I will then look into in more detail. The best way I have found to do this is by breaking the drivers down into groups of expectation and then taking it from there.
Using my notes from previous years and past results this year on similar tracks (ie not making any assumptions)I get the following:
1. The Pole contenders:
Lewis, Massa, Kimi
2. The long shot pole runners:
Heikki, Kubica, Alonso, Vettel
3. On the brink:
Heidfeld, Trulli, Webber, Piquet, Glock, Rosberg, Bourdais
4. Likely to qualy 13th or lower:
Sutil, Fisichella, Button, Rubens, Nakajima, Coulthard
If you follow F1 this may seem fairly obvious but breaking them into these groups allows me to concentrate on certain areas. I can now ignore group 4 until later in the week as my research has shown they should show little promise in qualy. Group 3 are the drivers I will be looking at for the ‘to reach Q3?’ market. This market has poor liquidity so I will also look into this later in the week.
2. The long shot pole Runners
These drivers potentially could get pole in certain circumstances and if the odds are long enough, could well be worth a punt.
Heikki: McLaren could run him light but this now appears to be a tactic they are avoiding. We don’t know how much fuel he had in Japan – I suspect it was more than the other top 6 cars so getting 3rd was a good result. I’d want odds over 25 this time around before I got interested.
Kubica: Still in the title hunt so will BMW finally push for it. The cars outright pace is not there so it would need to be light fuel – in Japan he had 17 laps, the same as Lewis/Kimi and only managed 6th. The harder tyres may not be great for the BMW either. The odds need to be at least 50+ for it to be worthwhile. I debated putting him in group 3 this weekend to be honest.
Alonso: He’s on form and the Renault looks quicker than BMW, but not quite on the top two’s pace. Renault now know they have a good race pace so getting as high up the grid as possible to make use of that may be on Pat Symonds mind. Keep an eye on his practice times as the hard tyres may not suit them so well – if he’s on the pace again take anything over 15’s.
Vettel: Not showing the blinding pace they did in Valencia and Monza but Toro Rosso are still quick. It would need some kind of wonder lap to take pole but there is a chance his odds could top 100/1 before qualy in which case it has to be worth a couple of quid on a back position. He's in this group because I expect him to reach Q3.
1. The pole contenders
I would expect the pole sitter to be one of these drivers.
Lewis: McLarens qualifying pace is what’s kept Lewis in the hunt thanks to the way they use the tyres. His concern will be how those tyres get used during the race as this may affect what strategy he uses and therefore what fuel loads to start with. Keep an eye on the stints in practice and how the tyres hold up. Normally trading at 2.5 – 3 he doesn’t show much value on either the back or lay side.
Massa: Ferrari are very strong on this track but the harder tyres traditionally have not suited them as well as McLaren. Massa did test them before Singapore and was happy with the results so maybe this won’t be such a problem. He managed to qualify 4th in the Sauber back in 2005 which shows he can put a good lap together. Unfortunately the rest of his results here have been patchy. We could see another perfect lap such as the pole in Singapore and in the last races he’s been around 3.25 for pole which may be worth a look.
Kimi: Up until Japan he was in my 2nd group - It looks like the real Kimi decided to turn up for qualy but there’s no guarantee he will be there this Saturday. A bit of a risk sticking him in this category but the reason is simple – in past races he’s been trading as high as 8 for pole. Anything near that this weekend has to be worth a look seeing as he has the car and possibly lighter fuel load to stick it at the front of the grid. I would not want to get involved any lower than 7’s because if he doesn’t show pace on Friday the odds won’t be slow in moving out.
Having now looked at Massa and Kimi, Lewis may be worth a lay if he dips below 2.5.
Finally – a look a t the odds
These groups and runners odds are not set in stone for the rest of the week. I will update them all the time as new information and data comes in. This is simply a good starting point which allows me to look at the odds and start to take any positions I like the look of.
After checking the odds at oddschecker and the exchanges everyone appears to be a bit tight this week! Normally I would find a bet I like the look of however most runners seem priced about right. Saying that, both Massa and Kimi look like they could move into my range. There has also been only £726 matched in the qualy market so it’s still very early days. Worth taking an early look though because sometimes you’ll catch a gem. Anyway that’s enough for today – more about the odds tomorrow.
This week I’m going to try something different with the blog. As I won’t be doing much else other than catching up on sleep from the weekend, I should have the chance to update the blog everyday. I therefore thought it would be a good idea to go through the process I take before each race weekend. Hopefully this will give a better idea as to what I do and how I trade/bet on the races rather than just explaining it. Lets begin….
Pre-Conceptions
The first thing I do at the start of the race week is try and forget everything I know. It may sound a strange thing to do but biased thoughts can ruin your ability to foresee certain outcomes which would otherwise be blatantly obvious. It also helps from a research point of view because then nothing becomes trivial – everything is important and that way you never miss that piece of information you thought was a small detail, which ends up defining the race. From this moment on I know nothing about Formula One. As far as I’m concerned at this moment in time, Jenson Button has as much chance as winning the next race as Lewis Hamilton!
The race weekend
As the only detail I now know is a race will be held this coming weekend, the first logical step is to find out as much as I can about it.
The first stop is www.formula1.com where I can get a timesheet for the next race which is being held at Shanghai in China (the timetable is on the right and can be changed to your time zone). Looks like I will be getting up early again but at least that means it won’t clash with any other prior engagements and I will be able to watch every session.
The track
Now I know where the event is it’s time to investigate the track. The best way to do this is reading the press releases and views of drivers and team bosses which will be posted on most F1 sites (I use www.autosport.com). These will become available as the weekend draws closer. Normally most would have been published by now but seeing as the last race was yesterday most teams haven’t got round to it yet. I also have notes from last year and can already tell most teams will be using similar set-ups to Fuji. The press releases confirm this, although most say the downforce settings are slightly higher. This means those who went well in Fuji should still go well in China, although that’s not the whole story because the tyres make a bid difference……
The Tyres
In China they will be using the higher end of the scale which means Hard and Medium compound tyres. These were the same tyres as used last year apart from race day when wet tyres were used. The track is hard on the front left tyre and degradation in general is higher than most circuits which is the reason for using the harder compound.
The weather
It’s a bit early for solid weather prediction but it’s vital for how you approach the weekend. Again most F1 sites will have some comment about the expected weather and you can easily google the local weather at the track. Early signs for this weekend are hot and sunny practice and qualy session – with possible light rain on race day. This is Ok because I won’t be looking at race betting/trading until later in the week and by then the forecast should be more accurate – the important thing is qualy should be dry.
The notes
Remember I still know nothing about the drivers or the teams. So far this has just been a data gathering exercise. The most important tool I have is Microsoft OneNote. I am forever taking screen clippings and placing them in my collection of notes which I refer back to during the week. I’ve been using this since the middle of the 2006 season so I now have a healthy set of notes for most races.
All of the above information has now been recorded in individual sections and will be added to as the week progresses.
The timesheet and track picture are placed into my notes along with the TV schedule (www.itv-f1.com for me). These are also placed into my template which is printed and used as a mouse mat for the rest of the week (Honestly! Maybe now you will begin to see I’m slightly obsessed).If you click on the picture you can grab a copy if really want to. It’s nothing special but does work as a good quick reference tool. I just write in the boxes if I want to take notes – the pits section allows me to keep track of who is left to pit (don’t ever trust James Allen if you watch ITV) and I note the quickest laptime sectors - More on these later in the week.
Last years race
I have notes about last years race but I’m not concerned with those at the moment. I have the season review DVD for 2007 and I will watch the highlights of last years race. Again my only concern here is what the track is like – not who was quick and who won the race (although it’s hard to ignore the fact Toro Rosso finished 4th and 6th). I suppose you could do a couple of laps yourself if you have a video game as that would be a good way to familiarise yourself with the track.
That’s it for today. All I have done is gather information about the track and what kind of race we can expect. I haven’t given a thought to who will win and as yet, have not looked at a single betting site.
Pre-Conceptions
The first thing I do at the start of the race week is try and forget everything I know. It may sound a strange thing to do but biased thoughts can ruin your ability to foresee certain outcomes which would otherwise be blatantly obvious. It also helps from a research point of view because then nothing becomes trivial – everything is important and that way you never miss that piece of information you thought was a small detail, which ends up defining the race. From this moment on I know nothing about Formula One. As far as I’m concerned at this moment in time, Jenson Button has as much chance as winning the next race as Lewis Hamilton!
The race weekend
As the only detail I now know is a race will be held this coming weekend, the first logical step is to find out as much as I can about it.
The first stop is www.formula1.com where I can get a timesheet for the next race which is being held at Shanghai in China (the timetable is on the right and can be changed to your time zone). Looks like I will be getting up early again but at least that means it won’t clash with any other prior engagements and I will be able to watch every session.
The track
Now I know where the event is it’s time to investigate the track. The best way to do this is reading the press releases and views of drivers and team bosses which will be posted on most F1 sites (I use www.autosport.com). These will become available as the weekend draws closer. Normally most would have been published by now but seeing as the last race was yesterday most teams haven’t got round to it yet. I also have notes from last year and can already tell most teams will be using similar set-ups to Fuji. The press releases confirm this, although most say the downforce settings are slightly higher. This means those who went well in Fuji should still go well in China, although that’s not the whole story because the tyres make a bid difference……
The Tyres
In China they will be using the higher end of the scale which means Hard and Medium compound tyres. These were the same tyres as used last year apart from race day when wet tyres were used. The track is hard on the front left tyre and degradation in general is higher than most circuits which is the reason for using the harder compound.
The weather
It’s a bit early for solid weather prediction but it’s vital for how you approach the weekend. Again most F1 sites will have some comment about the expected weather and you can easily google the local weather at the track. Early signs for this weekend are hot and sunny practice and qualy session – with possible light rain on race day. This is Ok because I won’t be looking at race betting/trading until later in the week and by then the forecast should be more accurate – the important thing is qualy should be dry.
The notes
Remember I still know nothing about the drivers or the teams. So far this has just been a data gathering exercise. The most important tool I have is Microsoft OneNote. I am forever taking screen clippings and placing them in my collection of notes which I refer back to during the week. I’ve been using this since the middle of the 2006 season so I now have a healthy set of notes for most races.
All of the above information has now been recorded in individual sections and will be added to as the week progresses.
The timesheet and track picture are placed into my notes along with the TV schedule (www.itv-f1.com for me). These are also placed into my template which is printed and used as a mouse mat for the rest of the week (Honestly! Maybe now you will begin to see I’m slightly obsessed).If you click on the picture you can grab a copy if really want to. It’s nothing special but does work as a good quick reference tool. I just write in the boxes if I want to take notes – the pits section allows me to keep track of who is left to pit (don’t ever trust James Allen if you watch ITV) and I note the quickest laptime sectors - More on these later in the week.
Last years race
I have notes about last years race but I’m not concerned with those at the moment. I have the season review DVD for 2007 and I will watch the highlights of last years race. Again my only concern here is what the track is like – not who was quick and who won the race (although it’s hard to ignore the fact Toro Rosso finished 4th and 6th). I suppose you could do a couple of laps yourself if you have a video game as that would be a good way to familiarise yourself with the track.
That’s it for today. All I have done is gather information about the track and what kind of race we can expect. I haven’t given a thought to who will win and as yet, have not looked at a single betting site.
I don’t know where to start with this mornings race!
Once again laying an odds on driver for race win (Lewis was 1.88) would have proved a good bet but this time I didn’t take it up. I felt there was a good chance Lewis would be able to beat Kimi even if Kimi led into the first corner. 1.88 was about the right price so I looked for a bit more value in BET365’s handicap market. Lewis was 4.50 to win this so an outright bet was placed which of course I ended up taking a full loss on.
Never mind though because when Kubica ended up at the front I could hardly believe my eyes as odds of 30 where waiting to be taken. I placed an order in as soon as I could and got just over £10 matched at the last moment before his odds tumbled down to 3’s. If only there was more than the £10 available, what a trade that could have been!
Without the Kubica trade it would have been a poor weekend as I lost on nearly every other market. Positions on Heikki for a podium and fastest lap were destroyed when his engine blew (at the time he was holding the fastest lap) but these things happen and that’s were money management comes into play.
Another interesting trade available after the event was on Bourdais for a points finish. He was under investigation for colliding with Massa and having finished in the points was being traded between 1.15 and 1.30 to keep that position. What made it interesting is the likely penalty (if he was to be penalised) would be 25 seconds added to his finish time – which took him outside of the points. I traded the odds movements greening up to ensure whatever the decision I would win as you never know with the FIA these days!. He did get 25’s penalty but that has no effect on my return.
I did trade a little on Alonso for a small profit when he was leading but missed what would have been another great trade. When you miss trades like this it sometimes feels like a loss. “Dam, why didn’t I get on Alonso” and similar should’a/would’a/could’a thoughts - it feels like you missed out. On the other hand the reason I missed the big Alonso trade is because I caught the big Kubica trade and was looking elsewhere. You can’t be everywhere at once but sometimes you wish you could be!
As for the title, has Lewis blown it again? His progress this season has been very similar to last year with a good first half followed by a faulting second half. I’m not sure if it’s the pressure getting to him or not but you do have to wonder if he can handle it. He is young and I think this gets forgotten – he’s also still very inexperienced compared to Massa and Kimi. For me the biggest surprise today is not that Alonso won again, but the fact Lewis admitted a mistake. I wish he’d do this more often as he would come across better to the media and more importantly it actually lifts the pressure he puts on himself.
After Singapore I said Alonso needs a good car next season. It’s looking likely he will stay at Renault so hopefully they can produce something for him. Singapore was lucky but today he beat the BMW of Kubica in a fair fight so maybe Renault can deliver.
As for Kubica, he’s still in the title hunt – what a story that would be. I also need to thank Kubica as without him I would have lost badly this weekend. It’s strange that I end the weekend in profit because he topped 3rd practice and lead for 15 or so laps and that’s it!
Once again laying an odds on driver for race win (Lewis was 1.88) would have proved a good bet but this time I didn’t take it up. I felt there was a good chance Lewis would be able to beat Kimi even if Kimi led into the first corner. 1.88 was about the right price so I looked for a bit more value in BET365’s handicap market. Lewis was 4.50 to win this so an outright bet was placed which of course I ended up taking a full loss on.
Never mind though because when Kubica ended up at the front I could hardly believe my eyes as odds of 30 where waiting to be taken. I placed an order in as soon as I could and got just over £10 matched at the last moment before his odds tumbled down to 3’s. If only there was more than the £10 available, what a trade that could have been!
Without the Kubica trade it would have been a poor weekend as I lost on nearly every other market. Positions on Heikki for a podium and fastest lap were destroyed when his engine blew (at the time he was holding the fastest lap) but these things happen and that’s were money management comes into play.
Another interesting trade available after the event was on Bourdais for a points finish. He was under investigation for colliding with Massa and having finished in the points was being traded between 1.15 and 1.30 to keep that position. What made it interesting is the likely penalty (if he was to be penalised) would be 25 seconds added to his finish time – which took him outside of the points. I traded the odds movements greening up to ensure whatever the decision I would win as you never know with the FIA these days!. He did get 25’s penalty but that has no effect on my return.
I did trade a little on Alonso for a small profit when he was leading but missed what would have been another great trade. When you miss trades like this it sometimes feels like a loss. “Dam, why didn’t I get on Alonso” and similar should’a/would’a/could’a thoughts - it feels like you missed out. On the other hand the reason I missed the big Alonso trade is because I caught the big Kubica trade and was looking elsewhere. You can’t be everywhere at once but sometimes you wish you could be!
As for the title, has Lewis blown it again? His progress this season has been very similar to last year with a good first half followed by a faulting second half. I’m not sure if it’s the pressure getting to him or not but you do have to wonder if he can handle it. He is young and I think this gets forgotten – he’s also still very inexperienced compared to Massa and Kimi. For me the biggest surprise today is not that Alonso won again, but the fact Lewis admitted a mistake. I wish he’d do this more often as he would come across better to the media and more importantly it actually lifts the pressure he puts on himself.
After Singapore I said Alonso needs a good car next season. It’s looking likely he will stay at Renault so hopefully they can produce something for him. Singapore was lucky but today he beat the BMW of Kubica in a fair fight so maybe Renault can deliver.
As for Kubica, he’s still in the title hunt – what a story that would be. I also need to thank Kubica as without him I would have lost badly this weekend. It’s strange that I end the weekend in profit because he topped 3rd practice and lead for 15 or so laps and that’s it!
Firstly a quick mention about my betting. Started the day off well after backing Kubica at 25/1 to top P3 - it looked as though BMW would need to test a low fuel qualy run to make sure they got into the top 10 and this looked a great value bet.
I was on the wrong team mate for a trade as it looks as though Kimi was given the lighter fuel load at the Ferrari camp and he traded at high 9's then all the way down to evens. Heikki still put in a good lap but it was too late and gave no chance to trade so I suffered a loss there which leaves me with a small profit.
Now onto the title of this post. The Betfair market for 'Overall Qual. Winner' would make more sense if it was called 'Pole Position' - but its not called that for a reason. Pole position refers to the man starting on pole for the race. If you read the rules it states:
This market will be settled on the official times as recorded by the FIA and will not be affected by any subsequent penalties or demotions.
Renault (from what I've heard) have lodged a complaint in relation to Lewis allegedly holding up Piquet in Q2. If found guilty he will get a grid penalty, however today he set the fastest time as recorded by the FIA in the final qualifying session.
For some reason the Betfair market did not settle after the session and was open for another 5 minutes, during which Kimi was being traded (albeit and low amounts) as you can see on the graph below. As far as my understanding goes Lewis wins this event so those backing after the session should have saved their pennies. I don't think anything will come of the appeal - I can't even find any official confirmation there has been one.
I was on the wrong team mate for a trade as it looks as though Kimi was given the lighter fuel load at the Ferrari camp and he traded at high 9's then all the way down to evens. Heikki still put in a good lap but it was too late and gave no chance to trade so I suffered a loss there which leaves me with a small profit.
Now onto the title of this post. The Betfair market for 'Overall Qual. Winner' would make more sense if it was called 'Pole Position' - but its not called that for a reason. Pole position refers to the man starting on pole for the race. If you read the rules it states:
This market will be settled on the official times as recorded by the FIA and will not be affected by any subsequent penalties or demotions.
Renault (from what I've heard) have lodged a complaint in relation to Lewis allegedly holding up Piquet in Q2. If found guilty he will get a grid penalty, however today he set the fastest time as recorded by the FIA in the final qualifying session.
For some reason the Betfair market did not settle after the session and was open for another 5 minutes, during which Kimi was being traded (albeit and low amounts) as you can see on the graph below. As far as my understanding goes Lewis wins this event so those backing after the session should have saved their pennies. I don't think anything will come of the appeal - I can't even find any official confirmation there has been one.
Nothing much happened during Friday's practice, other than two cans of red bull and a packet of biscuits meeting their demise as I tried to stay awake from 2 to 8am.
This liquidity thing is starting to annoy me know. Maybe because I was using stakes half the size last year I didn't notice it, however the air time for this race cannot help. I got matched on Massa @ 3.2ish just in time for his price to fall, but because there's no money about only £10 got matched. I laid it back off at 2.76 but hardly worth it really. This is the kind of trade I want to be making 10+ times over the course of the weekend but I just can't make it pay with such low volumes. The graph to the right is Massa's odds - you can see someone did get a lay bet matched as low as 2.25 before it shot back up again. Why did this happen? Because Massa set a few purple sectors (quick times) and everyone overreacts to what is a after all a practice session. (Ie. The teams go out learn the best set-up and prepare to nail a real lap in qauly). The reason I watch the practice session is because you can piece together what is happening if you look at them as a whole. One quick sector time is irrelevant if the rest of the session was spent lapping 1 second behind everyone else.
As it is, I think Massa looks in a good position and will be able to fight Lewis for pole - I had expected McLaren to have an advantage around here but it doesn’t look to be the case. The two of them are very close on pace and at this time I wouldn't want to call it either way.
Heikki is on the pace but not to the extent I thought he would. He's not set the world alight but is within touching distance. It all depends on how much fuel they choose to go with, however is price is now moving out and if it tops 20 I will be taking a position on him for pole. I would hope to trade out of it during qualy for something less than 10's.
This liquidity thing is starting to annoy me know. Maybe because I was using stakes half the size last year I didn't notice it, however the air time for this race cannot help. I got matched on Massa @ 3.2ish just in time for his price to fall, but because there's no money about only £10 got matched. I laid it back off at 2.76 but hardly worth it really. This is the kind of trade I want to be making 10+ times over the course of the weekend but I just can't make it pay with such low volumes. The graph to the right is Massa's odds - you can see someone did get a lay bet matched as low as 2.25 before it shot back up again. Why did this happen? Because Massa set a few purple sectors (quick times) and everyone overreacts to what is a after all a practice session. (Ie. The teams go out learn the best set-up and prepare to nail a real lap in qauly). The reason I watch the practice session is because you can piece together what is happening if you look at them as a whole. One quick sector time is irrelevant if the rest of the session was spent lapping 1 second behind everyone else.
As it is, I think Massa looks in a good position and will be able to fight Lewis for pole - I had expected McLaren to have an advantage around here but it doesn’t look to be the case. The two of them are very close on pace and at this time I wouldn't want to call it either way.
Heikki is on the pace but not to the extent I thought he would. He's not set the world alight but is within touching distance. It all depends on how much fuel they choose to go with, however is price is now moving out and if it tops 20 I will be taking a position on him for pole. I would hope to trade out of it during qualy for something less than 10's.
This weekends race at Fuji Speedway is the first race in a while were I have had no idea of what to expect as we approach the weekend. Evan Singapore, a completely new track was easier to predict than this event. There are a number of reasons for this and none of them have anything to do with who, on paper, has the fastest car around the mountain track.
Rain is almost guaranteed at some stage during the weekend. It’s no use looking at any forecasts because the mini climate cannot be predicted this far in advance. If it rains people will expect Lewis to be quick, but last year both Ferrari’s made massive progress from the back of the field after starting on the wrong tyres. Ferrari also tested in wet conditions before Singapore and where pleased with their progress.
There’s also the issue of a title fight coming to a climax. Does Lewis attack and go for the win to extend his lead or would he just be happy with second. He’d be happy with second on the grid if his team mate got pole. Heikki finished 3rd last year in the Renault and after a poor Singapore we are back to a track more suited to his style. Will McLaren be inclined to get him on pole to stop the red cars running away with it? I have thought this a number of times lately and I’m convinced they would have done this in Monza if needed. Heikki is 15’s for pole so it may be worth a punt.
With the pressure off Kimi (he’s not expected to win the WDC now) will he come to life and show us the real Kimi Raikkonen. Will Massa decide he needs to be on pole and control the race, or if it rains will he enjoy another Silverstone fairground ride?
What about Vettel? Did Ferrari give Toro Rosso a full spec engine and then take it back from them after Monza or was Singapore just a blip. The last thing Ferrari would need whilst fighting for both championships is a customer engine team taking points from them. Vettel put in a good show in last years rain soaked event to qualify in the top 10 – unfortunately he was also in for a good race finish until he ran into the back of Webber behind the safety car (Hamilton’s fault!).
And BMW? Are they finished for the season or can they spring one last surprise. They don’t seem to have that extra bit of pace for my money and I’ve taken chances on them lately, hoping they would try something different strategy wise but they don’t appear to have the balls – but I’m not writing them off yet.
Alonso? Another wet race with likely safety cars! You never know……
There’s also the liquidity issue -It’s a night/early morning race so it will be crap.
This is not a race to start predicting and getting into large positions before the race weekend. There may be some nice juicy big prices available (other than Lewis and Massa) but I’m not taking the gamble.
I will be up in the early hours watching the times like a hawk to see what the real story is. I do like the 15’s on Heikki though…….
Rain is almost guaranteed at some stage during the weekend. It’s no use looking at any forecasts because the mini climate cannot be predicted this far in advance. If it rains people will expect Lewis to be quick, but last year both Ferrari’s made massive progress from the back of the field after starting on the wrong tyres. Ferrari also tested in wet conditions before Singapore and where pleased with their progress.
There’s also the issue of a title fight coming to a climax. Does Lewis attack and go for the win to extend his lead or would he just be happy with second. He’d be happy with second on the grid if his team mate got pole. Heikki finished 3rd last year in the Renault and after a poor Singapore we are back to a track more suited to his style. Will McLaren be inclined to get him on pole to stop the red cars running away with it? I have thought this a number of times lately and I’m convinced they would have done this in Monza if needed. Heikki is 15’s for pole so it may be worth a punt.
With the pressure off Kimi (he’s not expected to win the WDC now) will he come to life and show us the real Kimi Raikkonen. Will Massa decide he needs to be on pole and control the race, or if it rains will he enjoy another Silverstone fairground ride?
What about Vettel? Did Ferrari give Toro Rosso a full spec engine and then take it back from them after Monza or was Singapore just a blip. The last thing Ferrari would need whilst fighting for both championships is a customer engine team taking points from them. Vettel put in a good show in last years rain soaked event to qualify in the top 10 – unfortunately he was also in for a good race finish until he ran into the back of Webber behind the safety car (Hamilton’s fault!).
And BMW? Are they finished for the season or can they spring one last surprise. They don’t seem to have that extra bit of pace for my money and I’ve taken chances on them lately, hoping they would try something different strategy wise but they don’t appear to have the balls – but I’m not writing them off yet.
Alonso? Another wet race with likely safety cars! You never know……
There’s also the liquidity issue -It’s a night/early morning race so it will be crap.
This is not a race to start predicting and getting into large positions before the race weekend. There may be some nice juicy big prices available (other than Lewis and Massa) but I’m not taking the gamble.
I will be up in the early hours watching the times like a hawk to see what the real story is. I do like the 15’s on Heikki though…….