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Yesterday I said Massa will lead from start to finish if there is no safety car. That was a big ‘if’ and at the time the market for race win hadn’t opened.
If you read the blog regularly you will know I don’t like drivers under evens. It’s not that I don’t like short odds (I backed Vettel for points today @1.65 which was great odds) but because there is no value at all on tracks like this. There are so many factors which can ruin the race it’s always worthwhile to have a lay position on them. A lay on Massa didn’t even need to be traded out of today thanks to what’s becoming a self destruct season for Ferrari.
It’s funny how Piquet finished 2nd thanks to a safety car and then today it was Piquet who crashed out at just the right time for Alonso to take the lead. Credit to him as he drove well and is still one of the best (if not the best) driver out there – he needs to be in a good car next year.
I’m a bit guttered because although I made a profit I could have made a lot more today. Just as the safety car came out my Firefox browser crashed so I lost the live timing. Then ITV cut to a break so I was playing blind without knowing who had pitted etc. These are the times when you can make a mint so this cost me big time. I had to piece it all together again later in the race.
I couldn’t work out why Rosberg was trading over evens for a podium when he was running in 2nd. I thought I must have missed something when I lost my timing etc but it turned out to be a true place and I’m glad I trusted myself rather than the odds and placed a back bet on him.
Of course it would have been nice to have had a back on Alonso for race win but really his race was heading for being his worst of the season. I had layed him for a points place because his strategy meant he was never going to get anywhere near the top 10 - I traded out quickly when the safety car came out. Although the safety car rules make good trading opportunities I would rather they changed them for something which would mean fairer result.
So it’s another profit from the weekend and with just 3 races to go I need to find something else to fund my nights out over the winter!
If you read the blog regularly you will know I don’t like drivers under evens. It’s not that I don’t like short odds (I backed Vettel for points today @1.65 which was great odds) but because there is no value at all on tracks like this. There are so many factors which can ruin the race it’s always worthwhile to have a lay position on them. A lay on Massa didn’t even need to be traded out of today thanks to what’s becoming a self destruct season for Ferrari.
It’s funny how Piquet finished 2nd thanks to a safety car and then today it was Piquet who crashed out at just the right time for Alonso to take the lead. Credit to him as he drove well and is still one of the best (if not the best) driver out there – he needs to be in a good car next year.
I’m a bit guttered because although I made a profit I could have made a lot more today. Just as the safety car came out my Firefox browser crashed so I lost the live timing. Then ITV cut to a break so I was playing blind without knowing who had pitted etc. These are the times when you can make a mint so this cost me big time. I had to piece it all together again later in the race.
I couldn’t work out why Rosberg was trading over evens for a podium when he was running in 2nd. I thought I must have missed something when I lost my timing etc but it turned out to be a true place and I’m glad I trusted myself rather than the odds and placed a back bet on him.
Of course it would have been nice to have had a back on Alonso for race win but really his race was heading for being his worst of the season. I had layed him for a points place because his strategy meant he was never going to get anywhere near the top 10 - I traded out quickly when the safety car came out. Although the safety car rules make good trading opportunities I would rather they changed them for something which would mean fairer result.
So it’s another profit from the weekend and with just 3 races to go I need to find something else to fund my nights out over the winter!
Just a quick post before I head out. I hope Kubica has a good amount of fuel on board. I said he should be in the top 4 on the grid which he did, just, but he never looked threatening enough to make a decent trade so I lost out in the end. If Kubica has got a full tank then I have a problem with BMW’s ambitions! I did get back bets on him for podium and race win so I’ve not given up on him yet.
In Q2 I felt Massa looked strong and Lewis would struggle with the choice of what tyre to use. I backed Massa in the mid 3’s just enough to cover my liability on Kubica so today I’ve lost nothing (down on the weekend though because of the Vettel bet).
As for the race tomorrow my first thoughts are Massa will lead from start to finish. Unless there’s a safety car or something then I can’t see anyone challenging him in the race - I don’t think he’s that light on fuel it – it was just another perfect qualy lap from the soon to be WDC leader!
In Q2 I felt Massa looked strong and Lewis would struggle with the choice of what tyre to use. I backed Massa in the mid 3’s just enough to cover my liability on Kubica so today I’ve lost nothing (down on the weekend though because of the Vettel bet).
As for the race tomorrow my first thoughts are Massa will lead from start to finish. Unless there’s a safety car or something then I can’t see anyone challenging him in the race - I don’t think he’s that light on fuel it – it was just another perfect qualy lap from the soon to be WDC leader!
Well I lost the Vettel to top P1 bet but I’m pleased I done the right thing. Sometimes it is actually better to make an outright bet than make a trade as the risk/return can be better.
When looking into the odds for Vettel to get pole he was trading at 25. My thoughts were if he looks good the price would come down to maybe 15’s and then lower if he still looks good through P3 and Q1,Q2. To make a green with those odds I would need a hefty stake to begin with seeing as the hedge would be at 10+ odds. However if he’s not on the pace his odds would move out sharply and with the low liquidity in the F1 markets these days I would maybe struggle to get out. As it was he put in a poor show and his odds doubled quickly – here is his graph.
If we were talking about one of the top runners the opposite is true. If Hamilton looks good there’s not much resistance to his price coming down and if he’s poor, the odds won’t drift too much because plenty of people will still want to back him at the longer odds. For Vettel it made sense to ignore any trade and place an outright bet on the factor which I would have been relying on to make the trade – the factor being him being near the top in P1. With odds of 21 to achieve top spot the return was much higher than the trade would have made and with the e/w bet the top 3 places were covered. Of course he finished way down the order but you can’t win them all.
It will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow. Toro Rosso made great progress of the last few months and you don’t loose it all in the space of a week. Maybe as the track rubbers in they will improve so I will keep a close eye on his performance and his odds.
The Kubica trade looks to be in a good position. With him there will be some resistance to the price getting any lower than 15 without some kind of display of speed on track. He looked good in practice (actually looking better than I expected) and I’m confident at some point tomorrow those odds will be pushed way down. If he’s not in the top 4 on the grid I will be very disappointed.
When looking into the odds for Vettel to get pole he was trading at 25. My thoughts were if he looks good the price would come down to maybe 15’s and then lower if he still looks good through P3 and Q1,Q2. To make a green with those odds I would need a hefty stake to begin with seeing as the hedge would be at 10+ odds. However if he’s not on the pace his odds would move out sharply and with the low liquidity in the F1 markets these days I would maybe struggle to get out. As it was he put in a poor show and his odds doubled quickly – here is his graph.
If we were talking about one of the top runners the opposite is true. If Hamilton looks good there’s not much resistance to his price coming down and if he’s poor, the odds won’t drift too much because plenty of people will still want to back him at the longer odds. For Vettel it made sense to ignore any trade and place an outright bet on the factor which I would have been relying on to make the trade – the factor being him being near the top in P1. With odds of 21 to achieve top spot the return was much higher than the trade would have made and with the e/w bet the top 3 places were covered. Of course he finished way down the order but you can’t win them all.
It will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow. Toro Rosso made great progress of the last few months and you don’t loose it all in the space of a week. Maybe as the track rubbers in they will improve so I will keep a close eye on his performance and his odds.
The Kubica trade looks to be in a good position. With him there will be some resistance to the price getting any lower than 15 without some kind of display of speed on track. He looked good in practice (actually looking better than I expected) and I’m confident at some point tomorrow those odds will be pushed way down. If he’s not in the top 4 on the grid I will be very disappointed.
I have stayed clear of Vettel so far this week because I think his price will be hyper-sensitive. By that I mean if he looks good his odds will shorten but there will still be some resistance to the price getting too short – if he looks poor his odds will drift out quicker than he could lap Monza. In other words, from a trading point of view it’s one to avoid because the risk far outweighs the potential reward. It would be far better to have an outright punt but then I’m not convinced he will be able to manage pole again and 4th-5th is a more realistic target for him.
Practice however is a different story and Vettel hasn’t been shy in doing lighter fuel runs on softer tyres. With more comments being made comparing this track to Valencia (I hope they are wrong because that was one of the most boring races in years) I can’t ignore the fact Vettel was one of the quickest cars around that track, setting fastest times in P1, Q1 and Q2. With BET365 setting his price at 21 to top the first practice session I have placed a small bet on each way terms for him to achieve this.
That way if he’s looking good I will profit a lot more than I would from a trade whilst using a stake I’m happy to loose.
As for the Kubica position, the exchange has come back to the mid 20’s. If he doesn’t set the world alight today I would expect that price to move out to mid 30’s maybe 40’s. If it does I may be backing more on the exchange because BMW rarely look good on the Friday. Of course if there are legitimate reasons for the price drift I will trade out but if he’s anywhere in the top 10 I’d be happy he’s on the pace.
Practice however is a different story and Vettel hasn’t been shy in doing lighter fuel runs on softer tyres. With more comments being made comparing this track to Valencia (I hope they are wrong because that was one of the most boring races in years) I can’t ignore the fact Vettel was one of the quickest cars around that track, setting fastest times in P1, Q1 and Q2. With BET365 setting his price at 21 to top the first practice session I have placed a small bet on each way terms for him to achieve this.
That way if he’s looking good I will profit a lot more than I would from a trade whilst using a stake I’m happy to loose.
As for the Kubica position, the exchange has come back to the mid 20’s. If he doesn’t set the world alight today I would expect that price to move out to mid 30’s maybe 40’s. If it does I may be backing more on the exchange because BMW rarely look good on the Friday. Of course if there are legitimate reasons for the price drift I will trade out but if he’s anywhere in the top 10 I’d be happy he’s on the pace.
With Hamilton’s penalty appeal being dismissed it means Kubica still has to be classed as a title contender. If he’s to mount any serious charge on the WDC he needs to win or at minimum stand on the podium come Sunday, but can he deliver?
Lets take a look at what (according to press releases and general opinion) will be needed around Singapore and the betting situation:
Street Tracks
Generally street tracks mean lots of braking, slow corners and high downforce. One of Kubica’s strengths is his breaking so you would expect him to do well on such tracks. If we look at tracks such as Melbourne (kind of street track and has high number of braking zones), Monaco and Valencia, how well did Kubica do this year?
(Track, Qualy Result, Race Result)
Melbounre = 2nd, Retired
Monaco = 5th, 2nd
Valencia = 3rd, 3rd
Not too shabby. Add to this Monaco was a wet weekend which according to reports is likely in Singapore its fair to say he’s been at the sharp end these weekends.
Tyres
The soft and super soft tyres will be used for the night race so how have BMW faired on these. Heidfeld had an awful time mid season with these tyres and ended up outside the top 10 in qualy a couple of times. He seems to be over those issues now and Kubica never really had as big a problem and I don’t see this being an issue. In fact, the races which have featured the Super soft tyres are both Monaco and Valencia (see above) and…
Canada = 2nd, 1st (although Lewis and Kimi failed to finish)
Hungary = 4th, 8th
Canada looks good but Hungary was a strange one. BMW looked good before Sunday but in the race they had some issues with the tyres. Kubica was also one of the first to pit which makes 4th a fairly poor showing in qualy. It may be down to a combination of tarmac and tyre – Canada was good but Hungary poor. Seeing Canada has some normal road sections we could assume Singapore may be similar but that may be to big a leap of faith. This is an unknown until we hit Friday’s practice session.
Engine
Street tracks tend to be an engine leveller as they don’t get a chance to fully open up. Reliability is important as the short bursts from corner to corner are a pain for the engine. BMW have had very few issues with the engine this year - it’s powerful and reliable enough to get Kubica to the top.
The competition
It’s a new track but expect the same faces at the front. I’m undecided how well Vettel will do in Singapore however I believe he will be in the mix again. McLaren and Ferrari should be evenly matched and I don’t see much advantage to either team. The risk for Kubica lies in the team games between the big two- will Heikki go for pole with light fuel, will Kimi turn up for once, or will the title contenders want the front row to themselves. If I had to predict just one driver for pole I don’t think I could - it’s going to be extremely close.
Kubica’s and BMW ‘s title hopes
There’s been comments this week about Kubica being unhappy with the team and feeling like he’s the only one who wants to win the championship within BMW. There’s talk of unrest but I don’t see it that way –as Mario Theissen said – he’s competitive and wants to win and the team are behind him.
If Kubica really does want to win and BMW are really behind him then this weekend is not about being conservative and racing for points – he needs pole and he needs at lest a podium.
The important part- The Odds
For each race I do my research and usually find a driver who I think will be most likely to get pole. I then compare my expectation with the odds to see if it’s worth backing/laying. This being a new track I have no history to compare with and as you get to the back end of the season, it’s not always the fastest driver who set’s the pole lap due to championship tactics. This all means picking a winner is almost impossible for this race.
In these cases I stick to simply backing a driver who I think has the most incorrect odds. By that I mean the one who the bookies have not paid attention too, the driver who has been priced higher than his realistic chances – the driver with value. For this weekend that man has to be Kubica who is trading at 26 for pole (SportingOdds), 25 for race win and 5 for a podium.
I was hoping to get matched on Betfair but it already looks like some people are thinking along the same lines as me. At the time of writing you could back him for 15.5 and get matched on a lay of 22. I’ve had to go with SportingBet’s 26 for pole (much higher than the closest bookie) which is still available if you want snap it up.
I’m not sure if Kubica will manage pole or a race win but then my aim here is to lay the bet if for a profit/loss later in the weekend, hopefully before the third qualy session has started. Hopefully the market will come round to my way of thinking and realize he is priced wrongly (which looks like it’s happening already). Better still Kubica may deliver and make this an interesting end to the championship.
Lets take a look at what (according to press releases and general opinion) will be needed around Singapore and the betting situation:
Street Tracks
Generally street tracks mean lots of braking, slow corners and high downforce. One of Kubica’s strengths is his breaking so you would expect him to do well on such tracks. If we look at tracks such as Melbourne (kind of street track and has high number of braking zones), Monaco and Valencia, how well did Kubica do this year?
(Track, Qualy Result, Race Result)
Melbounre = 2nd, Retired
Monaco = 5th, 2nd
Valencia = 3rd, 3rd
Not too shabby. Add to this Monaco was a wet weekend which according to reports is likely in Singapore its fair to say he’s been at the sharp end these weekends.
Tyres
The soft and super soft tyres will be used for the night race so how have BMW faired on these. Heidfeld had an awful time mid season with these tyres and ended up outside the top 10 in qualy a couple of times. He seems to be over those issues now and Kubica never really had as big a problem and I don’t see this being an issue. In fact, the races which have featured the Super soft tyres are both Monaco and Valencia (see above) and…
Canada = 2nd, 1st (although Lewis and Kimi failed to finish)
Hungary = 4th, 8th
Canada looks good but Hungary was a strange one. BMW looked good before Sunday but in the race they had some issues with the tyres. Kubica was also one of the first to pit which makes 4th a fairly poor showing in qualy. It may be down to a combination of tarmac and tyre – Canada was good but Hungary poor. Seeing Canada has some normal road sections we could assume Singapore may be similar but that may be to big a leap of faith. This is an unknown until we hit Friday’s practice session.
Engine
Street tracks tend to be an engine leveller as they don’t get a chance to fully open up. Reliability is important as the short bursts from corner to corner are a pain for the engine. BMW have had very few issues with the engine this year - it’s powerful and reliable enough to get Kubica to the top.
The competition
It’s a new track but expect the same faces at the front. I’m undecided how well Vettel will do in Singapore however I believe he will be in the mix again. McLaren and Ferrari should be evenly matched and I don’t see much advantage to either team. The risk for Kubica lies in the team games between the big two- will Heikki go for pole with light fuel, will Kimi turn up for once, or will the title contenders want the front row to themselves. If I had to predict just one driver for pole I don’t think I could - it’s going to be extremely close.
Kubica’s and BMW ‘s title hopes
There’s been comments this week about Kubica being unhappy with the team and feeling like he’s the only one who wants to win the championship within BMW. There’s talk of unrest but I don’t see it that way –as Mario Theissen said – he’s competitive and wants to win and the team are behind him.
If Kubica really does want to win and BMW are really behind him then this weekend is not about being conservative and racing for points – he needs pole and he needs at lest a podium.
The important part- The Odds
For each race I do my research and usually find a driver who I think will be most likely to get pole. I then compare my expectation with the odds to see if it’s worth backing/laying. This being a new track I have no history to compare with and as you get to the back end of the season, it’s not always the fastest driver who set’s the pole lap due to championship tactics. This all means picking a winner is almost impossible for this race.
In these cases I stick to simply backing a driver who I think has the most incorrect odds. By that I mean the one who the bookies have not paid attention too, the driver who has been priced higher than his realistic chances – the driver with value. For this weekend that man has to be Kubica who is trading at 26 for pole (SportingOdds), 25 for race win and 5 for a podium.
I was hoping to get matched on Betfair but it already looks like some people are thinking along the same lines as me. At the time of writing you could back him for 15.5 and get matched on a lay of 22. I’ve had to go with SportingBet’s 26 for pole (much higher than the closest bookie) which is still available if you want snap it up.
I’m not sure if Kubica will manage pole or a race win but then my aim here is to lay the bet if for a profit/loss later in the weekend, hopefully before the third qualy session has started. Hopefully the market will come round to my way of thinking and realize he is priced wrongly (which looks like it’s happening already). Better still Kubica may deliver and make this an interesting end to the championship.
I received an e-mail from Betfair today stating the introductory offer of a £25 free bet has been reduced to £10 and could I please remove any adverts and copy from my site which may state otherwise. I was happy to oblige and have replaced the Betfair adverts with more appropriate ones.
If the purpose of the premium charge was to offset the costs of ‘winners’ who do not put new money into the market, why reduce the bait with which to introduce new ‘losers’ into the market. Unless of course those new customers are winners and managing to turn their £25 free bet into £1000+ returns…..
Part of me thinks maybe Betfair are happy to loose some customers to Betdaq. If the customers who are leaving are the ones which cost more to administer than they provide in commission returns then are Betfair loosing out if you jump ship to Betdaq?
I’m actually looking forward to a period of change which at the end of it could see us traders/punters better off. If Betdaq can improve their game then the competition can only be a good thing. Yes liquidity may be an issue but I think there’s plenty about to be evenly split amongst the two (maybe even room for a third). Take typical premier league football game with 2 million plus matched on Betfair. It’s not a problem if that’s split evenly across the two exchanges – you can easily get matched with those levels. Ok, for Formula One their may be issues but unless Betdaq offer more markets then the money will stay with Betfair. Some events will be better on one exchange and some on the other.
When it all washes out (liquidity is good and tools/bots available on all exchanges) I truly believe people like me will be better off. Having a choice as to which exchange to use has to be better than being forced to use just one.
If the purpose of the premium charge was to offset the costs of ‘winners’ who do not put new money into the market, why reduce the bait with which to introduce new ‘losers’ into the market. Unless of course those new customers are winners and managing to turn their £25 free bet into £1000+ returns…..
Part of me thinks maybe Betfair are happy to loose some customers to Betdaq. If the customers who are leaving are the ones which cost more to administer than they provide in commission returns then are Betfair loosing out if you jump ship to Betdaq?
I’m actually looking forward to a period of change which at the end of it could see us traders/punters better off. If Betdaq can improve their game then the competition can only be a good thing. Yes liquidity may be an issue but I think there’s plenty about to be evenly split amongst the two (maybe even room for a third). Take typical premier league football game with 2 million plus matched on Betfair. It’s not a problem if that’s split evenly across the two exchanges – you can easily get matched with those levels. Ok, for Formula One their may be issues but unless Betdaq offer more markets then the money will stay with Betfair. Some events will be better on one exchange and some on the other.
When it all washes out (liquidity is good and tools/bots available on all exchanges) I truly believe people like me will be better off. Having a choice as to which exchange to use has to be better than being forced to use just one.
For some reason I’m really looking forward to next weekends Singapore Grand Prix. It will be something slightly different with it being a night race, but also we are now getting to the business end of the Championship and the pressure will be intense.
Here’s an interesting clip about how McLaren are preparing for the race (found thanks to www.f1fanatic.co.uk)
There are a number of uncertainties about this race and I’m currently doing some research to see if I can find some answers. What will the weather be like? What will the track temperatures be? What is the track like in terms of setup? (everyone’s talking about the night feature but lets not forget this is a completely new track as well) , are Torro Rosso genuinely one of the quickest cars and will that translate to Singapore?.....
At the moment I haven’t got a clue about who the weekend will work out – maybe that’s why I’m looking forward to it so much.
Here’s an interesting clip about how McLaren are preparing for the race (found thanks to www.f1fanatic.co.uk)
There are a number of uncertainties about this race and I’m currently doing some research to see if I can find some answers. What will the weather be like? What will the track temperatures be? What is the track like in terms of setup? (everyone’s talking about the night feature but lets not forget this is a completely new track as well) , are Torro Rosso genuinely one of the quickest cars and will that translate to Singapore?.....
At the moment I haven’t got a clue about who the weekend will work out – maybe that’s why I’m looking forward to it so much.
Trading is a pain in the…. back
0 Comments Published by John on Thursday, September 18, 2008 at 9:12 PM.
My holiday period is over and it’s back to work. I’ve been suffering stomach/groin pains for a while and the doctors haven’t been able to work out what it is so they sent me to a physio. He thinks the problem is nothing to do with my stomach and is caused by bad sitting posture. My day job is a 9-5 desk job so with that and my trading out of work I do spend hours sat at a PC. I ‘m also lazy and sit like a slob so I think he may be onto something! Trading should therefore come with a health warning – not a mental health warning (although sometimes this may be needed!) but a physical health warning. So now I’m sitting straight I will begin…
I couldn’t really trade the last two races as I would have liked because of being on holiday etc but I did still make a profit on each of them. I feel like I missed out on Monza as there would have been a couple of great opportunities, however if I can spend the week away from home and still make some money I’m not going to complain.
The drivers championship is still a close run thing but given the tracks we have left will suit the McLaren better then Hamilton has got to feel he has the best chance. Will he throw it away like last year again? Kubica is still in the hunt and although I can’t really see him winning many (if any) races, finishing 2nd here and there could mean he ends up on top if the other fail to score at some races. Has anyone ever won the championship after winning only 1 race in the season. I never bet on the season long markets but I did have a cheeky £2 bet on Kubica at 85 just for a bit of fun.
The new race at Valencia didn’t get me very excited beforehand and in the end it was the dullest race of the year, however I hope Shanghai will be a different story. The night racing under floodlights is going to be great to watch and the possibility of rain again!
As for the Betfair premium charge I have no choice but to continue using the exchange for F1 trading because the others are poor. WBX only have a race win market and the liquidity on both WBX and Betdaq for these events is terrible. As the charge will not effect me just yet because I partake in a very few number of markets (F1 only) I don’t need to make much change. However, to any Betfair employees out there who may be reading this, even though I’m not affected by the charge I’m still looking elsewhere for when I begin in the football markets. I have a long term plan with the football trading and I see no point in switching exchanges when the charge becomes applicable - I therefore may as well start off on an exchange which will not take the piss when I start winning. This may have been something Betfair didn’t think about when setting the charge – it may only effect 0.5% of customers now, but how many customers are within touching distance of the charge (like me) and will now look elsewhere.
Oh yeah, almost forgot about the Elise. Well I didn't win it, dam it. I was 13th in queue for a key and the bloke in 5th managed to pick the right one out of the bag. He was really happy about it and I would have probably crashed it whilst trying to find the limit so probably a good thing in the end.
I couldn’t really trade the last two races as I would have liked because of being on holiday etc but I did still make a profit on each of them. I feel like I missed out on Monza as there would have been a couple of great opportunities, however if I can spend the week away from home and still make some money I’m not going to complain.
The drivers championship is still a close run thing but given the tracks we have left will suit the McLaren better then Hamilton has got to feel he has the best chance. Will he throw it away like last year again? Kubica is still in the hunt and although I can’t really see him winning many (if any) races, finishing 2nd here and there could mean he ends up on top if the other fail to score at some races. Has anyone ever won the championship after winning only 1 race in the season. I never bet on the season long markets but I did have a cheeky £2 bet on Kubica at 85 just for a bit of fun.
The new race at Valencia didn’t get me very excited beforehand and in the end it was the dullest race of the year, however I hope Shanghai will be a different story. The night racing under floodlights is going to be great to watch and the possibility of rain again!
As for the Betfair premium charge I have no choice but to continue using the exchange for F1 trading because the others are poor. WBX only have a race win market and the liquidity on both WBX and Betdaq for these events is terrible. As the charge will not effect me just yet because I partake in a very few number of markets (F1 only) I don’t need to make much change. However, to any Betfair employees out there who may be reading this, even though I’m not affected by the charge I’m still looking elsewhere for when I begin in the football markets. I have a long term plan with the football trading and I see no point in switching exchanges when the charge becomes applicable - I therefore may as well start off on an exchange which will not take the piss when I start winning. This may have been something Betfair didn’t think about when setting the charge – it may only effect 0.5% of customers now, but how many customers are within touching distance of the charge (like me) and will now look elsewhere.
Oh yeah, almost forgot about the Elise. Well I didn't win it, dam it. I was 13th in queue for a key and the bloke in 5th managed to pick the right one out of the bag. He was really happy about it and I would have probably crashed it whilst trying to find the limit so probably a good thing in the end.
Its always satisfying to make a trade and profit from a situation where outright betting would have given you a loss.
I traded out of the Massa position @ 3.9 for a small profit. Kimi was not on the pace at all and I had to take a loss on him (was only a small stake and I let it run) but the Heikki trade turned out to be a nice ride. I had backed him @17 which was a good price considering he goes well at tracks like Monza and there was a good chance McLaren would want to lock out the front row. Of course it didn’t turn out like that as the other big guns never made it through to Q3. Even if it had been dry I would have expected the odds to come in however the fact he didn’t have much of a challenge for Q3 meant his odds dropped to 2.3. I traded out for a green before Q3 because the weather was too random and it proved a good move as he only managed to get 2nd in the end. During Q3 his odds moved out slowly as it became apparent nobody could improve their lap times as the rain was coming down harder.
A nice profit and as I said it’s pleasing given the ‘bet’ would have lost. It’s also pleasing I hit (near enough) the top and bottom of the swing – I couldn’t have made a better trade.
I bit annoyed I didn’t get on Vettel – I mentioned last week his odds always trade lower in qualy but for some reason I just didn’t think of it this weekend. He was available for over 100 earlier in the week.
A lay on Lewis for race win @ 2.8 now looks a good move, I placed the bet just before qualy – he’s good in the wet but the weather is such a random factor that 2.8 was too low given we could have a muddled up grid – which is what we got. That will be my only position for the race – as I’m out all day I can’t keep an eye on the weather so anything else would be too risky.
I traded out of the Massa position @ 3.9 for a small profit. Kimi was not on the pace at all and I had to take a loss on him (was only a small stake and I let it run) but the Heikki trade turned out to be a nice ride. I had backed him @17 which was a good price considering he goes well at tracks like Monza and there was a good chance McLaren would want to lock out the front row. Of course it didn’t turn out like that as the other big guns never made it through to Q3. Even if it had been dry I would have expected the odds to come in however the fact he didn’t have much of a challenge for Q3 meant his odds dropped to 2.3. I traded out for a green before Q3 because the weather was too random and it proved a good move as he only managed to get 2nd in the end. During Q3 his odds moved out slowly as it became apparent nobody could improve their lap times as the rain was coming down harder.
A nice profit and as I said it’s pleasing given the ‘bet’ would have lost. It’s also pleasing I hit (near enough) the top and bottom of the swing – I couldn’t have made a better trade.
I bit annoyed I didn’t get on Vettel – I mentioned last week his odds always trade lower in qualy but for some reason I just didn’t think of it this weekend. He was available for over 100 earlier in the week.
A lay on Lewis for race win @ 2.8 now looks a good move, I placed the bet just before qualy – he’s good in the wet but the weather is such a random factor that 2.8 was too low given we could have a muddled up grid – which is what we got. That will be my only position for the race – as I’m out all day I can’t keep an eye on the weather so anything else would be too risky.
Today things went almost as expected apart from the BMW’s putting in what looks a strong performance.
Last night I took the following positions in the pole market:
Kimi, Back @5.9
Massa, Lay @ 3.15
Heikki, Back @17
As it stands all of those positions are moving in my favour but what has annoyed me is Kubica. I stated in my last post I was not going to back him because the BMW’s normally fuel heavy for practice and the odds were likely to drift – que a blinding session for BMW and Kubica’s odds dropping from 34’s to 13’s. I did take some at 23 on the way down but decided to trade back out at 14 because I don’t think there’ll be many people wanting to back him to keep the price that low. I wont be able to get a good price on him again now but should he put in another good performance in P3 then anything above 10 would still be a good bet.
Heikki was not quite on the pace but I think he’s on a different testing program – I will keep a close eye on that position during P3 as it’s the only one which may go against me as things stand.
Quickly looking at the race markets and I took a lay on Alonso for points @ 1.68. If both BMW’s are looking quick there are realistically only two points positions to race for. Given the performances of the Torro Rosso’s I can see them getting 1 (if not both) of those places leaving the under powered Renault out in the cold.
This weekend is another bit of a muddle for me in terms of lack of time. I’m now of out for the rest of the day and will also be out all of Sunday (because I will be winning a Lotus Elise!). Will try to post when I get the chance but my not be able to do one until after the weekend. Good luck and if you run out of ideas, just lay Hamilton to win at anything under 3!
Last night I took the following positions in the pole market:
Kimi, Back @5.9
Massa, Lay @ 3.15
Heikki, Back @17
As it stands all of those positions are moving in my favour but what has annoyed me is Kubica. I stated in my last post I was not going to back him because the BMW’s normally fuel heavy for practice and the odds were likely to drift – que a blinding session for BMW and Kubica’s odds dropping from 34’s to 13’s. I did take some at 23 on the way down but decided to trade back out at 14 because I don’t think there’ll be many people wanting to back him to keep the price that low. I wont be able to get a good price on him again now but should he put in another good performance in P3 then anything above 10 would still be a good bet.
Heikki was not quite on the pace but I think he’s on a different testing program – I will keep a close eye on that position during P3 as it’s the only one which may go against me as things stand.
Quickly looking at the race markets and I took a lay on Alonso for points @ 1.68. If both BMW’s are looking quick there are realistically only two points positions to race for. Given the performances of the Torro Rosso’s I can see them getting 1 (if not both) of those places leaving the under powered Renault out in the cold.
This weekend is another bit of a muddle for me in terms of lack of time. I’m now of out for the rest of the day and will also be out all of Sunday (because I will be winning a Lotus Elise!). Will try to post when I get the chance but my not be able to do one until after the weekend. Good luck and if you run out of ideas, just lay Hamilton to win at anything under 3!
The title race may now be looking like a battle between Lewis and Massa but this weekend’s race could be a different story. Again there will be little to choose between the top two manufactures, McLaren will make better use of the tyres (harder range will be used again) but Ferrari’s power unit may make up for that slight edge around the track with the highest top speed.
So who will get pole? Massa or Lewis? Well for me it’s a case of ignore the two of them. Their odds have no value but also we could see their teammates, the two Finnish drivers aiming to start on pole.
Kimi is not out of the title race and will still want to win. Ferrari also seems to be delaying any kind of team orders until its mathematically impossible for him to win the Championship. Heikki is quick on tracks with high speeds and fast corners such as Silverstone were he got his first pole and last year in Monza he put in a great qualy performance for Renault.
There’s also the issue of the team game. From McLarens point of view the worst case scenario for them is having a Ferrari on the front row. I backed Heikki last week because I felt McLaren would want to lock out the top 2 grid slots and this weekend will be no different. Heikki getting pole is not a bad situation for Lewis for a number of reasons – either Ferrari getting pole is a bad situation. Same applies for Ferrari: If Kimi still thinks he can win it, why not finally go for the lighter fuel load and try to stop the McLarens locking out the front row. Massa and Lewis now have to think about the long game and as long as they can qualy 2nd/3rd they are still in the race if it’s their teammate on pole.
So with very poor odds available on Massa and Lewis I will be backing their longer odds teammates with an eye to trading out during Q3.
The other driver to look out for is Kubica. Heidfeld had the better of him in Spa but this was track specific. In Monza you have to be good on the brakes and this is something Kubica excels at. All the teams bring special ‘one-off’ aero packages to Monza and BMW are usually good with this sort of thing. The BMW power unit shouldn’t be too far down on power either.
Don’t back Kubica yet though! I still haven’t done my post about the evolution of an F1 weekend but the chances are Kubica’s odds will be longer Friday night than they are today. They tend to run heavy fuel on Friday which gives the impression they are slow and pushes their odds out.
Alternatively a lay position on Massa for pole may be the way to go. I would suspect at some point during the weekend you could trade out of that for a small loss if he’s going well or a big profit if McLaren or Kimi look stronger - this is not one of Massa’s best tracks (but then neither was Monaco!)
So who will get pole? Massa or Lewis? Well for me it’s a case of ignore the two of them. Their odds have no value but also we could see their teammates, the two Finnish drivers aiming to start on pole.
Kimi is not out of the title race and will still want to win. Ferrari also seems to be delaying any kind of team orders until its mathematically impossible for him to win the Championship. Heikki is quick on tracks with high speeds and fast corners such as Silverstone were he got his first pole and last year in Monza he put in a great qualy performance for Renault.
There’s also the issue of the team game. From McLarens point of view the worst case scenario for them is having a Ferrari on the front row. I backed Heikki last week because I felt McLaren would want to lock out the top 2 grid slots and this weekend will be no different. Heikki getting pole is not a bad situation for Lewis for a number of reasons – either Ferrari getting pole is a bad situation. Same applies for Ferrari: If Kimi still thinks he can win it, why not finally go for the lighter fuel load and try to stop the McLarens locking out the front row. Massa and Lewis now have to think about the long game and as long as they can qualy 2nd/3rd they are still in the race if it’s their teammate on pole.
So with very poor odds available on Massa and Lewis I will be backing their longer odds teammates with an eye to trading out during Q3.
The other driver to look out for is Kubica. Heidfeld had the better of him in Spa but this was track specific. In Monza you have to be good on the brakes and this is something Kubica excels at. All the teams bring special ‘one-off’ aero packages to Monza and BMW are usually good with this sort of thing. The BMW power unit shouldn’t be too far down on power either.
Don’t back Kubica yet though! I still haven’t done my post about the evolution of an F1 weekend but the chances are Kubica’s odds will be longer Friday night than they are today. They tend to run heavy fuel on Friday which gives the impression they are slow and pushes their odds out.
Alternatively a lay position on Massa for pole may be the way to go. I would suspect at some point during the weekend you could trade out of that for a small loss if he’s going well or a big profit if McLaren or Kimi look stronger - this is not one of Massa’s best tracks (but then neither was Monaco!)
Ok, first of all this is not in defence of Betfair…….
I’m back home and after reading my e-mails I’m as surprised as everyone else about Betfair’s move to ‘tax’ high winners 20%. My e-mail explained I won’t be affected by this and after looking at the charging structure I can see why.
Because the only markets I participate in are the F1 markets (footy is still in a research phase) there are simply not enough events for me to make consistent profits over 60 weeks. Some weeks I won’t trade at all and some weeks I will make a loss so it’s unlikely I will ever incur this charge if I continue trading only the F1 markets.
Of course when I begin to trade football this may change (with a bit of luck!) but all I would have to do is use another exchange for football trading. The football requires no quick software applications and there plenty of liquidity on the like of Betdaq for this sport.
That doesn’t mean I wont be affected by this in a round about way. If some of the bigger players out there decide to cut the involvement or go elsewhere I could find some difficulties in getting matched. As I’ve mentioned recently the liquidity in F1 markets has reduced lately and I don’t want to see it getting any smaller. If some decide to jump ship to Betdaq, we will end up with what was already a low liquidity market spread over two exchanges. It would just fall apart – as I write this at 3pm on Wednesday, Betdaq is only offering 3 markets on F1 (Win/Podium/Points) and even worse; there is not one single bet available on any of these markets – ZILCH!
However this is in defence of Betfair…….
To those on Betfair who thought they were going to get their Hamilton Race winner bets settled in their favour – I hate to say I told you so but it’s always worth reading the rules and knowing the sport you are betting on!!
My last post was done from memory which is why I stated it was a grey area but my memory didn’t fail me and I got the logic of the settlement correct. I stated the race result was not announced until after Lewis was given the penalty. The FIA race classification there states Massa won the race and any penalties or appeals after that are ignored. This is now how Betfair settled the market. These are the rules of the market – if you don’t like them don’t bet. It’s as simple as that.
I suspect what caught some people out here is normally the classified race result is given, then later on in light of some other evidence a penalty may be given. In such a case the ‘race winner’ is the one who was classified even if they are given a penalty at a later date. In this case it worked the other way – Lewis was under investigation before the race was classified, therefore delaying an official result until this was completed.
First rule of betting: Read the rules….
Second rule of betting: Read the rules…..
If you didn’t read the rules, don’t blame Betfair for your mistake.
EDIT: I didn’t really make it clear but this last bit in defence of Betfair is to those on the BF forum who are moaning and complaining about how unfair the settlement is. I had money on Lewis and I lost but I accept the result because they are the rules.
I’m back home and after reading my e-mails I’m as surprised as everyone else about Betfair’s move to ‘tax’ high winners 20%. My e-mail explained I won’t be affected by this and after looking at the charging structure I can see why.
Because the only markets I participate in are the F1 markets (footy is still in a research phase) there are simply not enough events for me to make consistent profits over 60 weeks. Some weeks I won’t trade at all and some weeks I will make a loss so it’s unlikely I will ever incur this charge if I continue trading only the F1 markets.
Of course when I begin to trade football this may change (with a bit of luck!) but all I would have to do is use another exchange for football trading. The football requires no quick software applications and there plenty of liquidity on the like of Betdaq for this sport.
That doesn’t mean I wont be affected by this in a round about way. If some of the bigger players out there decide to cut the involvement or go elsewhere I could find some difficulties in getting matched. As I’ve mentioned recently the liquidity in F1 markets has reduced lately and I don’t want to see it getting any smaller. If some decide to jump ship to Betdaq, we will end up with what was already a low liquidity market spread over two exchanges. It would just fall apart – as I write this at 3pm on Wednesday, Betdaq is only offering 3 markets on F1 (Win/Podium/Points) and even worse; there is not one single bet available on any of these markets – ZILCH!
However this is in defence of Betfair…….
To those on Betfair who thought they were going to get their Hamilton Race winner bets settled in their favour – I hate to say I told you so but it’s always worth reading the rules and knowing the sport you are betting on!!
My last post was done from memory which is why I stated it was a grey area but my memory didn’t fail me and I got the logic of the settlement correct. I stated the race result was not announced until after Lewis was given the penalty. The FIA race classification there states Massa won the race and any penalties or appeals after that are ignored. This is now how Betfair settled the market. These are the rules of the market – if you don’t like them don’t bet. It’s as simple as that.
I suspect what caught some people out here is normally the classified race result is given, then later on in light of some other evidence a penalty may be given. In such a case the ‘race winner’ is the one who was classified even if they are given a penalty at a later date. In this case it worked the other way – Lewis was under investigation before the race was classified, therefore delaying an official result until this was completed.
First rule of betting: Read the rules….
Second rule of betting: Read the rules…..
If you didn’t read the rules, don’t blame Betfair for your mistake.
EDIT: I didn’t really make it clear but this last bit in defence of Betfair is to those on the BF forum who are moaning and complaining about how unfair the settlement is. I had money on Lewis and I lost but I accept the result because they are the rules.
Well I have extended my weekend away so I’m still on holiday at the moment and haven’t had a chance to read fully about what’s happening with the Hamilton race penalty which has cost him the win.
I did get the chance to watch the race in the end and thanks to betfair mobile I was able to do some very (very) basic bets over the phone. I traded out of the Vettel position (winner w/o big 6) and saved a few pennies in the fastest lap market.
When the rain was expected to come before the end the of the race I decided to lay Kimi and had a small back of Lewis. Of course I didn’t expect Kimi to crash out but I knew the rain would muddle things up and it sure did.
As it stands the Kimi bet has been settled but the back of Lewis is still awaiting settlement. As I still have limited internet connection I’m guessing this is because McLaren are appealing – I’m guessing anyone with Massa race win bets are also still waiting for settlement. In a way I’m glad I didn’t trade the event because I would have a large sum of money tied up awaiting settlement when there is another race this weekend which I could use it for. On the other hand I think I would have seen plenty of opportunities to trade what was an amazing race.
As for Nick Heidfeld, I don’t know why, but when things get muddled up (be it safety car or rain) he is always there at the end. Finishing 3 (or 2nd!) was a great result – I doubt had I been trading I would have got the chance to trade out at lower odds because it all happened so quick right at the end. The fastest lap bet on Nick was not so good (he was 7th fastest) and the same for Heikki (4th). All in all I’m happy with the return from my experiment – roughly £40 from a £50 bank.
If Lewis is given the win then I can add another £5 to that total but this is a grey area and Betfair are going to have complaints whatever way they settle these markets. As far as I can remember the market is settled on the official race classification given by the FIA. As Lewis was under investigation before the race result was announced – then given a penalty – then the official race result was given, It would have been my understanding the market should be settled with Massa as the winner – even if the McLaren appeal is successful and Lewis is given the win back, but as I say this is a bit of a grey area.
I try to avoid the politics of F1 on this site as everyone has different opinions and I want to keep this about the betting side of things. Personally I enjoy some of the politics as it adds an extra bit of ‘fun’ to the proceedings but other times it’s a joke and this is one of the those times. All I will say is if it was a Ferrari that cut the chicane there is no way it would have been given a penalty (and for reference I am neither a neutral –I like both Ferrari and McLaren)
We head to Monza this weekend and I will have to cram in my research when I get home. Unfortunately I may not get the chance to trade the race on Sunday again as I may be attending a Lotus open day. They are celebrating their 60th birthday and along with a local radio station ran a competition to win a Lotus Elise for 6 months and £1000 cash. There are 60 keys handed out, one of which will open the car – and guess who has one of those 60 keys!!!
I did get the chance to watch the race in the end and thanks to betfair mobile I was able to do some very (very) basic bets over the phone. I traded out of the Vettel position (winner w/o big 6) and saved a few pennies in the fastest lap market.
When the rain was expected to come before the end the of the race I decided to lay Kimi and had a small back of Lewis. Of course I didn’t expect Kimi to crash out but I knew the rain would muddle things up and it sure did.
As it stands the Kimi bet has been settled but the back of Lewis is still awaiting settlement. As I still have limited internet connection I’m guessing this is because McLaren are appealing – I’m guessing anyone with Massa race win bets are also still waiting for settlement. In a way I’m glad I didn’t trade the event because I would have a large sum of money tied up awaiting settlement when there is another race this weekend which I could use it for. On the other hand I think I would have seen plenty of opportunities to trade what was an amazing race.
As for Nick Heidfeld, I don’t know why, but when things get muddled up (be it safety car or rain) he is always there at the end. Finishing 3 (or 2nd!) was a great result – I doubt had I been trading I would have got the chance to trade out at lower odds because it all happened so quick right at the end. The fastest lap bet on Nick was not so good (he was 7th fastest) and the same for Heikki (4th). All in all I’m happy with the return from my experiment – roughly £40 from a £50 bank.
If Lewis is given the win then I can add another £5 to that total but this is a grey area and Betfair are going to have complaints whatever way they settle these markets. As far as I can remember the market is settled on the official race classification given by the FIA. As Lewis was under investigation before the race result was announced – then given a penalty – then the official race result was given, It would have been my understanding the market should be settled with Massa as the winner – even if the McLaren appeal is successful and Lewis is given the win back, but as I say this is a bit of a grey area.
I try to avoid the politics of F1 on this site as everyone has different opinions and I want to keep this about the betting side of things. Personally I enjoy some of the politics as it adds an extra bit of ‘fun’ to the proceedings but other times it’s a joke and this is one of the those times. All I will say is if it was a Ferrari that cut the chicane there is no way it would have been given a penalty (and for reference I am neither a neutral –I like both Ferrari and McLaren)
We head to Monza this weekend and I will have to cram in my research when I get home. Unfortunately I may not get the chance to trade the race on Sunday again as I may be attending a Lotus open day. They are celebrating their 60th birthday and along with a local radio station ran a competition to win a Lotus Elise for 6 months and £1000 cash. There are 60 keys handed out, one of which will open the car – and guess who has one of those 60 keys!!!
I didn’t see any of the qualy session yesterday and have only read about it since, but sounds like it worked out more or less how I would have expected. A bit annoying in a way because had I of been doing my usual trading during the event I would have been able to make a good return. As it is I’m happy with the win for minimal effort thanks to Lewis’ pole position. Unfortunately the Glock not to reach Q3 bet never got matched because that would have been a winner too. Looks like Vettel never traded as low as 10 so that didn’t work either but it was worth a try.
I have a very limited internet connection were I am (there’s no mobile signal or anything around here!) so researching today’s race has been a bit tricky.
For me the best speculative bet looks to be Nick Heidfeld on both the Race Winner (95) and Fastest Lap (36) markets. If the weather turns nasty he can always seem to grind out a half decent result and while I don’t think he will win, he could threaten for a podium so those odds for me are worth £2 on each from my ‘experiment pot’. I also fancy Heikki on the fastest lap market at 14.5.
Without being able to look at much data or have access to my usual spreadsheets and notes I would produce over the course of a weekend it’s hard to tell much else. Hamilton is odds on at 1.75 for the race win and I would usually be tempted to lay at that price (or after he leads the fist lap at about 1.4) but if the rain comes I wouldn’t bet against him winning it – he’s probably about the right price. Massa may be worth a punt but I can’t really see him winning it and again there’s not much value in his price and Heikki should only win Lewis fails to finish (otherwise McLaren will engineer it so Lewis wins out of the two in order to help his championship attempt).
Vettel looks to be fuelled heavy and with possible safety car appearances that may prove a good strategy for him. He is 8.2 on the Winner W/O big 6 market so again, a minimum stake of £2 on that.
I’m going to leave it at that. I’ve only put down £10 from the pot which now stands at about £80, which means if I loose everything today the experiment still produced a profit of £20ish. If was trading this would have been the approach I would have taken. Because the weather is an unknown factor a few speculative bets before the start, leaving most of the bigger positions free so I can dip in and out as I please whilst in-play would be by usual way to attack this situation.
Sounds like it will be an interesting race, shame I’m going to miss it.
I have a very limited internet connection were I am (there’s no mobile signal or anything around here!) so researching today’s race has been a bit tricky.
For me the best speculative bet looks to be Nick Heidfeld on both the Race Winner (95) and Fastest Lap (36) markets. If the weather turns nasty he can always seem to grind out a half decent result and while I don’t think he will win, he could threaten for a podium so those odds for me are worth £2 on each from my ‘experiment pot’. I also fancy Heikki on the fastest lap market at 14.5.
Without being able to look at much data or have access to my usual spreadsheets and notes I would produce over the course of a weekend it’s hard to tell much else. Hamilton is odds on at 1.75 for the race win and I would usually be tempted to lay at that price (or after he leads the fist lap at about 1.4) but if the rain comes I wouldn’t bet against him winning it – he’s probably about the right price. Massa may be worth a punt but I can’t really see him winning it and again there’s not much value in his price and Heikki should only win Lewis fails to finish (otherwise McLaren will engineer it so Lewis wins out of the two in order to help his championship attempt).
Vettel looks to be fuelled heavy and with possible safety car appearances that may prove a good strategy for him. He is 8.2 on the Winner W/O big 6 market so again, a minimum stake of £2 on that.
I’m going to leave it at that. I’ve only put down £10 from the pot which now stands at about £80, which means if I loose everything today the experiment still produced a profit of £20ish. If was trading this would have been the approach I would have taken. Because the weather is an unknown factor a few speculative bets before the start, leaving most of the bigger positions free so I can dip in and out as I please whilst in-play would be by usual way to attack this situation.
Sounds like it will be an interesting race, shame I’m going to miss it.
After looking into this a bit more I’m going to take a slightly different approach to the Monaco Experiment.
At this point in time it’s extremely hard to pick race winner given there’s a high chance of rain in both qualy and the race. Even without the rain threat none of the 3 realistic candidates for a race win (Massa, Kimi, Lewis) are appealing at their current odds of 3s. I’m therefore going to leave the race markets alone completely until after qualy. I will still be in the UK this weekend and will get the chance to put other bets on before the race, so it makes sense to leave those alone for the moment. In Monaco I had to place all bets before I left home so I couldn’t have done this.
Turning my attention to qualy, my big position (relative to the size of my £50 experiment pot) is £15 on Lewis to take pole @ 3.35. He just missed out on pole last week whilst feeling under the weather and I still believe the McLaren is quickest over 1 lap. I don’t want to rule out Heikki using a slightly lower fuel strategy and decided to just cover him with £2 @ 19. The best bookies odds are currently 3.3 and 17 for these two runners; offered by Sportingbet (more about them later.) I think the true odds should be around the 2.6-2.7 mark which is what most bookies have Lewis at and 12-15 for Heikki.
As a bit of ‘fun’ I’m going to see if I can make the easiest trade I’ve made all season by backing and laying a runner at lower odds with the keep bet function. Vettel is 100 to get pole – probably a bit on the long side but realistically he shouldn’t get the top spot. He did impress in Valencia and could make a similar impression this weekend so without being to greedy I have backed him for £2 @ 100 and placed a lay of £20 @ 10 to get me a green of £18 should he threaten. He was trading at under 10 in Valencia during Q2 but then never looked like getting pole with the heavier fuel load. I feel 10 may just get matched if he looks on form again – worth a try innit!
I have one other bet currently un-matched. It’s a lay of £5 on Glock to reach Q3 @ 1.62. Anyone care to take me up on that ?!? I’m not sure Toyota will show the promise they have been recently around this track and Glock will be on the brink of reaching Q3. What am I saying! – he will easily get through and 1.62 is a great price to back him at – you should log on to Betfair now and snap up that price…….
That’s it for the moment. The liquidity is again very poor and I can’t get matched on some of the other positions I was looking at. I have used £19 (£24 if Glock gets matched) of the £50 pot so whatever happens in qualy I won’t be wiped out.
The most absurd bet offered this weekend comes from Sprotingbet. They have Kimi, Massa and Lewis all at 3.00 to win the race but in their specials they have a bet classed ‘Lewis GP win and Fastest Lap’ and the same for Massa. What is absurd is both these bets are also 3.00. So for your money you can either place a bet on Lewis to win and get 2/1 – or make life harder for yourself and add in the requirement for him to get fastest lap as well with no extra reward for your troubles. Wonder how many people have taken up those 2 bets? Kimi logically is 4.6 for Win and fastest lap and not 3.00.
At this point in time it’s extremely hard to pick race winner given there’s a high chance of rain in both qualy and the race. Even without the rain threat none of the 3 realistic candidates for a race win (Massa, Kimi, Lewis) are appealing at their current odds of 3s. I’m therefore going to leave the race markets alone completely until after qualy. I will still be in the UK this weekend and will get the chance to put other bets on before the race, so it makes sense to leave those alone for the moment. In Monaco I had to place all bets before I left home so I couldn’t have done this.
Turning my attention to qualy, my big position (relative to the size of my £50 experiment pot) is £15 on Lewis to take pole @ 3.35. He just missed out on pole last week whilst feeling under the weather and I still believe the McLaren is quickest over 1 lap. I don’t want to rule out Heikki using a slightly lower fuel strategy and decided to just cover him with £2 @ 19. The best bookies odds are currently 3.3 and 17 for these two runners; offered by Sportingbet (more about them later.) I think the true odds should be around the 2.6-2.7 mark which is what most bookies have Lewis at and 12-15 for Heikki.
As a bit of ‘fun’ I’m going to see if I can make the easiest trade I’ve made all season by backing and laying a runner at lower odds with the keep bet function. Vettel is 100 to get pole – probably a bit on the long side but realistically he shouldn’t get the top spot. He did impress in Valencia and could make a similar impression this weekend so without being to greedy I have backed him for £2 @ 100 and placed a lay of £20 @ 10 to get me a green of £18 should he threaten. He was trading at under 10 in Valencia during Q2 but then never looked like getting pole with the heavier fuel load. I feel 10 may just get matched if he looks on form again – worth a try innit!
I have one other bet currently un-matched. It’s a lay of £5 on Glock to reach Q3 @ 1.62. Anyone care to take me up on that ?!? I’m not sure Toyota will show the promise they have been recently around this track and Glock will be on the brink of reaching Q3. What am I saying! – he will easily get through and 1.62 is a great price to back him at – you should log on to Betfair now and snap up that price…….
That’s it for the moment. The liquidity is again very poor and I can’t get matched on some of the other positions I was looking at. I have used £19 (£24 if Glock gets matched) of the £50 pot so whatever happens in qualy I won’t be wiped out.
The most absurd bet offered this weekend comes from Sprotingbet. They have Kimi, Massa and Lewis all at 3.00 to win the race but in their specials they have a bet classed ‘Lewis GP win and Fastest Lap’ and the same for Massa. What is absurd is both these bets are also 3.00. So for your money you can either place a bet on Lewis to win and get 2/1 – or make life harder for yourself and add in the requirement for him to get fastest lap as well with no extra reward for your troubles. Wonder how many people have taken up those 2 bets? Kimi logically is 4.6 for Win and fastest lap and not 3.00.
I’m away for the weekend so there will be no trading on the F1 for the Belgium grand prix. I won’t even get to watch it because I will be out all day on the Sunday. When I went away for the Monaco grand prix I tried a little experiment with small stakes on outright bets placed early in the week and I’m going to do the same this weekend.
My pot will be £50 and from that I need to make choices which won’t wipe me out completely if one driver/team do not perform as expected. I'm not fully matched as yet on most of the positions I want so I will post up the final selections before I leave on Thursday night.
A lot of talk has been about engines and how Ferrari has increased its power even though we are under an engine freeze. There’s no doubt about it - Ferrari do have a more powerful engine than the rest of the field, but that’s no good if the tyres aren’t working for you. I have doubts about Ferrari’s performance this weekend for two reasons. Firstly they are using the hardest range of tyres available (the ones which Ferrari claim, favour McLaren) and secondly the expected low temperatures and possible rain forecast, which combined with the harder tyres is not ideal for the red team.
This shouldn’t be a big problem for them but could be just enough to hand the qualy advantage back to McLaren. Lewis manages to get the most out of his tyres in the cooler conditions and if it rains he will be the man to beat. Heikki ran well here last year and although I don’t think he will be quick enough to beat Lewis, he is a threat and at long odds I may as well include him (McLaren may want to lock out the front row of the grid).
There are a couple of other positions which may be of interest too me depending on where the odds settle.
This is a tough one to call and Sporting Odds have Lewis, Massa and Kimi all on 3.00. There is no clear favourite going into this race and as the weekend progresses through Friday practice I don’t expect the picture to become any clearer. Going by Kimi's recent performances you would expect his odds to be longer after each race, but this being one of his favourite tracks nobody wants' to write him off. Maybe a lay of Kimi is the way to go if I was trading this race? He's @3.4 on Betfair and unless he tops one of the Friday practice sessions I can’t see there being much resistance to that price drifting out. I would look to trade out of that before qualy though - it would take a brave man to oppose Kimi around Spa.
A bit of a pointless post really because I can't tell you what I've selected but it's usually around this time I start to post my thoughts for the weekend ahead. So thought I'd better get something posted or you will all think this has turned into another one of those 'never updated anymore' blogs ;-)
My pot will be £50 and from that I need to make choices which won’t wipe me out completely if one driver/team do not perform as expected. I'm not fully matched as yet on most of the positions I want so I will post up the final selections before I leave on Thursday night.
A lot of talk has been about engines and how Ferrari has increased its power even though we are under an engine freeze. There’s no doubt about it - Ferrari do have a more powerful engine than the rest of the field, but that’s no good if the tyres aren’t working for you. I have doubts about Ferrari’s performance this weekend for two reasons. Firstly they are using the hardest range of tyres available (the ones which Ferrari claim, favour McLaren) and secondly the expected low temperatures and possible rain forecast, which combined with the harder tyres is not ideal for the red team.
This shouldn’t be a big problem for them but could be just enough to hand the qualy advantage back to McLaren. Lewis manages to get the most out of his tyres in the cooler conditions and if it rains he will be the man to beat. Heikki ran well here last year and although I don’t think he will be quick enough to beat Lewis, he is a threat and at long odds I may as well include him (McLaren may want to lock out the front row of the grid).
There are a couple of other positions which may be of interest too me depending on where the odds settle.
This is a tough one to call and Sporting Odds have Lewis, Massa and Kimi all on 3.00. There is no clear favourite going into this race and as the weekend progresses through Friday practice I don’t expect the picture to become any clearer. Going by Kimi's recent performances you would expect his odds to be longer after each race, but this being one of his favourite tracks nobody wants' to write him off. Maybe a lay of Kimi is the way to go if I was trading this race? He's @3.4 on Betfair and unless he tops one of the Friday practice sessions I can’t see there being much resistance to that price drifting out. I would look to trade out of that before qualy though - it would take a brave man to oppose Kimi around Spa.
A bit of a pointless post really because I can't tell you what I've selected but it's usually around this time I start to post my thoughts for the weekend ahead. So thought I'd better get something posted or you will all think this has turned into another one of those 'never updated anymore' blogs ;-)