Before I go any further I want to make it clear I’m not in any kind of money trouble – Mum, don’t worry! I do however have bills like everyone else and over the last couple of months I’m noticeably worse off than I used to be. I would guess for many a Betfair punter things are not as good as they used to be and the disposable income used on Betfair may be starting to dry up.

It’s been noticeable over the last couple of races the liquidity on some of the F1 markets has deteriorated quite badly. There could be a number of reasons for this: Its summer time so people are out and about at the weekend, the football season has started and diverted peoples attention, people are on holiday and last weekend was a bank holiday…etc. The race win and pole markets have been OK but it’s the likes of the points and podium markets which I have really struggled to get matched in.

Anyway, more crucially there’s been a change in my attitude. If you have been reading this blog through the season you would have noticed I got off to a great start and continued this until 2 or 3 races ago. The annoying thing is (apart from no appearance of the safety car in Valencia) I have been able to read the weekend and predict the movement of odds quite well. Lewis was clearly not himself in the press conference after qualy and it was mainly his body language etc that made me take the lay position on him. Others put it down to the fact he was not happy because he missed out on pole, but if you watched him it was different to that. Turns out he was ill and nearly didn’t race at all. Yet still made a loss this weekend. This is a worry.

I have always found in the past my trading is far better when I don’t need to win. That may not make much sense because we always want to win otherwise what’s the point – but needing to win is a different matter. There has been a definite change in my psychology lately and where I used to take small green I’m now letting trades run longer – even to point they become losers. I’m not playing the market anymore, I’m chasing the market and chasing a big win. A big win that will pay my latest bill so I can still go out on the town and not have to worry about money I’m pissing up the wall!

All of my pre race weekend preparation is still good and I’m happy with that part of things. It’s when things go in-play I start to make silly decisions. Last weekend I didn’t really think Kubica would actually get pole but 30 was too long and I felt he would be at the sharp end of the grid. He was – he qualified 3rd and I could have taken green (not sure how much but I think around £20) but I didn’t. The £*** sum staring me in the face should he have got pole was too big an juicy for me - it would have paid a couple of bills this month so I let it run – and I lost £20 instead. Easy to say with hindsight but this is what I would have done earlier in the season.

I am in profit, in fact massively in profit (I may post my results some time: as things stand I have about a 700% return on my initial investment). I managed that through taking greens when I could and when I felt the risk outweighed the return. Taking whatever I could when I could because at the end of the day they all add up. £20 is not a bog deal, but added together with 4 other similar trades and you have £100. Do that on 3 or 4 markets over the race weekend and I’d be a happy bunny!

In short I’m becoming greedy. Maybe it’s nothing to do with the ‘credit crunch’ and is because of the big returns I’ve had so far and now £20 hear and there doesn’t seem worth it – but of course it is worth it, especially when the other choice is a loss……

Where to go from here then? Well this all may sound a bit overboard considering this weekend was my first real loss for 6 races. It was also small and within my limits so at the end of the day I didn’t do much wrong from that point of view. However I can tell I’m not trading like I used too and don’t want things to carry on like this as they will only end in a loss. I sure as hell don’t want to waste the money I have won so far this year and I think the best thing would be to have my very own credit crunch!

I have taken every penny out of my betting accounts. The return I made has been pocketed and it’s back to square one. I will treat it like the season has started over again and to make profits I need to go back to how I was – trading properly, trading logically and making a profit!

I will put money back in my account before the next race but it will be smaller than what I have been using. I therefore won’t be able to chase big wins because the big win won’t be possible. Also with the thought in mind I won’t be topping it up again the emphasis will be put back to ‘not loosing’ rather than ‘winning big’. This is my credit crunch but this credit crunch will hopefully make me better off!

That was the most boring race I’ve seen in ages. The field spread resulted in 2 things , A) the cars could not overtake because they never got close to each other and B) no overtaking resulted in no accidents and no safety car. No safety car meant my strategy of holding back on the front runners never resulted to anything. I may has well taken my normal approach and concentrated on the front end.

I did lay Lewis which was a good move but had to take a small green instead of a big win amongst the confusion of a possible Massa drive through penalty. They had better not penalise him to the extent the race win is taken away – he drove a great race and deserves the win –The only reason James Allen and ITV are making such a big issue of it is because it means Lewis would win the race.

The only market I won on this weekend was the fastest lap market. I didn’t play much else and I’m glad because my whole ‘game plan’ for the weekend was wrong. By not playing I kept my losses to a minimum!

When I watched the GP2 race this morning alarm bells started ringing about the possibility of no safety car. I very rarely play the safety car market and I’m glad I didn’t this week – I think it was 1.25 for it to make an appearance before the race.

I am a bit annoyed about making a loss this weekend and I don’t really know how I managed it! The two main trades I made were backing Kimi for pole and Laying Lewis for the race. I traded both for greens but lost too much money on smaller positions which with hindsight I can now see where wasteful.

From memory this is the first time the 3 first drivers on the start grid have finished in that order which tells you something about the race and the track. Oh well – today was a learning experience and next year I will know what to expect.

Hope you did better than me this weekend, if you didn’t – give up!

Yesterday didn’t quite go to plan with Alonso and Glock both failing to reach Q3. That left me with only Kubica as one of my backed runners. I still had no liability at this point and I thought Hamilton looked good so took some of his odds in the high 3’s. It wasn’t to be but because of my Kimi trade earlier in the week the loss is small.

My thoughts yesterday were Massa may have trouble getting off the grid and into the first corner given the position of the pole position slot. I also fancied Kubica but as he would be starting on the dirty side he would be handicapped as well. However the grid slots have now been swapped around and now Massa will have the advantage (as he should on pole).

Ferrari should have a good race pace and with Lewis starting on the dirty side he will have to drive a great race to win this. His tyres were also a bit worn after qualy so this combined with his demeanour in the press conference lead me to believe he hasn’t got as much fuel on board as he would like. This along with his dirty grid slot lead me to believe 2.8 is too short for him to win the race and I have taken a lay position. Even if he somehow manages to take the lead I won’t trade out straight away – it depends on when he pits as to how quick he really is and also the safety car may change things.

The outside bet for me is Kubica. I always take a small back of one driver with long odds who I think will qualy near the top end. I got 38 on Kubica earlier in the week and starting 3rd I’m hoping he may be able to get ahead of Hamilton on the first lap or at least stick with him until the pit stops.

I’m still concerned a safety car will shuffle the pack at some point so I had placed £2 orders on a number of midfield runners @ 1000. So far only Nakajima has been matched but as we go in-play I will look to find others in good positions (mainly 1 stoppers) who may be able to take advantage of any such situation

A good punt pointed out by F1Punter is Heidfeld on the fastest lap spread. Read about it here.

I’ve just watched the start of the GP2 race and it’s easy for people to get through the first corner but there’s then a concertina effect at turn 2 which causes problems for the midfield pack. Interestingly when one of the drivers hit the wall the car was craned away under waved yellows and not safety car conditions.

I waited as long as possible on the Kimi trade but in the end had to get out at 3.9 during 3rd practice. I still think he’s got a great chance and mid 3’s would probably be a fair price but the usual over reaction to PRACTICE times was in full swing. He’s now trading back at 5’s even though he’s still looking good. I would be tempted to jump back in the marked if it wasn’t for one thing….possible rain.

As it stands I have no liability and 3 free bets on runners in the pole market (Kubica, Alonso and Glock). For me the most interesting market this weekend will be ‘to reach q3’. The liquidity usually picks up in-play and with possible rain it will be a frantic session. A Lay on the fringe runners are the ones to look out for, the likes of Rosberg, Vettel, Piquet, Rubens and Coulthard (maybe add Heidfeld to that list also). I have been matched on some of these at odds on and if you consider they are all fighting for 3, maybe 4 slots then the can’t all make it through.

The other factor in qualy will be the ability to set a lap in the first place. There’s a high chance of someone hitting/clipping a wall and if it happens near the end of a session may rule out the chance for someone to even attempt a qualy lap.

On a green track I thought McLaren would have a slight advantage and in P1 Lewis should have topped the times if it wasn't for a spin on his last lap. I found it strange BET365 had him at 4/1 to top the first session so I placed an outright bet. I lost but I'm happy because 4/1 was too long and had he not made that mistake I would have been proven right.

I have been meaning to do a post for while about the evolution of a race weekend. I will try and do it next week some time but it all tie’s in with my decision to get on Kimi this morning before practice and not wait to see what happened. In simple terms his comments meant he would be quicker in practice so if I was going to back him I had to do it before practice. He topped P2 and looks to be on it this weekend. I missed the 5.1 for Kimi to win the race I mentioned earlier in the week but there's a long way to go between now and the finish flag so I'm still holding steady on the race winner market.

I managed to get backs of Alonso and Trulli (pole position) before practice, however Glock has once again impressed and I swapped the Trulli liability over to Glock. Looking at the time sheets at the end of the day you wouldn’t think Kubica is looking like a challenger but he did show good pace at times – whether it’s enough to get pole I don’t know but his odds are long enough to include him in my book.

So I know have backs on 4 runners for pole, all of which are heading in the right direction in terms of their odds are currently shorter than what I backed them for, but not yet reaching their full potential for it to be worth taking a green at this stage.

Heidfeld seems to be struggling again and could be worth a lay in some markets if you can get matched. The liquidity is poor this weekend – maybe it’s the new track, maybe it’s the holiday season ….or maybe the credit crunch! It will be very tight in the midfield and the ‘to reach top Q3’ market would give some great opportunities if there was any money flying about.

Tomorrows first session will be interesting. I won't be dutching any midfield runners this time out and will probably not have any bet on it at all as anyone could top the session. Keep an eye out for Renault driving slowly in the first half of the session in order to scrub tyres for the race. They think they have found a way to make the tyres work better and will be interesting to see if anyone else tries it.

I also expect some penalties to be handed out for blocking drivers on hot laps.

I mentioned in my last post that Kimi may be happy with a carrying a tiny bit more fuel as long as he can get on the front to rows. I’ve just read comments from him saying he now see’s qualy as crucial and is prepared to compromise some race pace in return for a higher qualy slot.

This changes things slightly and I have decided to take a back @ 5.9 for pole position. I was tempted to back him anyway as I expect him to be the stronger of the two Ferrari’s this weekend so this not based on just this comment but a number of things I have looked into. Unless things go badly wrong I should be able to get out for a small loss at that price as he can’t really afford to drift out much longer than 7’s, whereas I should be able to trade out under 3’s if he looks like he can challenge during Q2 and Q3.

I also mentioned the threat of Renault and Toyota trying a low-ish fuel attempt so I have covered my arse with small stakes on Alonso and Trulli’s long odds. I haven’t backed Glock at the moment but will keep an eye on his progress in practice.

On a green track I would think McLaren are going to be strong to begin with but as the weekend progresses things should become close. It will be interesting to see what BMW can do around here – there’s a mixed opinion as to whether they are dropping back or just had a few bad races. The crucial thing for BMW around here is how they manage the softer tyres which my stats point out to be a slight disadvantage for them. However they won in Canada on super softs so maybe it depends on the tarmac or combination of that and the higher temperature (expecting a hot dry weekend in Valencia).

Bridgestone are concerned about the bridge section. Not because a car may go flying off it but because the track has a 15mm bump which may cause punctures on the super soft tyres. Lets hope we don’t have another tyre fiasco on our hands.

This weekend see’s the F1 circuit visit the first of two new tracks this season. Valencia may be classed a street race but with newly laid tarmac one of the highest top speeds on the calendar, it’s not going to be a Monaco style street track. The talk from the teams is this will be similar to Canada, with a set-up not much different to Hockenheim.

Normally in the build up to a race weekend I take a look through the history books, check out recent form and build up a picture of how things may pan out. Obviously this time around I can only use recent form as a measure of what may happen but this is something I use very loosely. In fact recent form in F1 can often be misleading and is one of the ‘errors’ I look to take advantage of when scouting the odds. Pat Symonds (the brains at Renault) made a great comment in his race preview when asked what he thinks the pecking order is. Read it here. The media and some F1 fans are often far to fickle when it comes to changes in the pecking order. After the French GP it was all "Ferrari have the fastest car", then when McLaren went and won the next two races it was "McLaren have the fastest car" - then Massa showed the Ferrari was very quick in Hungary and everyone gets all confused about who has the fastest car. In reality the performance of the car depends on a lot of factors (downforce levels required, tyres used, brake usage, did the driver have a skin full last night?) and things will chop and change. What you should look at is the general trend over a number of races and that’s something I try to do with a couple of excel sheets I use to collect data.

I will be entering very few positions before the weekend starts on Friday with the practice sessions. Usually practice sessions can be taken with a pinch of salt but this weekend they will play a crucial role as teams try to dial in their set-ups.

At first look you would have to say the McLarens look favourite for pole, with Massa (still can’t believe he nailed Monaco pole) likely to be in the hunt as well. Kimi needs to improve his qualy performances but I think he would still be happy with anything on the front two rows as long as he can carry more fuel. Could we see some low fuel runs from the likes of Renault and Toyota? Nobody seems to want to take that gamble this year – maybe because the safety car rules mean you don't want to be caught short on fuel, but this is a home track for Alonso and we all know what they tried in Barcelona.

As for the race I'm going to stay away from this market for the moment. The only thing catching my eye is Kimi at 5.1 but there’s too much risk involved. There’s a high chance of a safety car around a track like this which could shuffle the order at anytime in the race. Although it doesn’t make for a great result (an artificial winner because of a safety car) it would be nice to see one of the 999/1 runners come in first!

All of this probably sounds a bit vague and that's intentional. I made the mistake last race of looking for something which wasn't there and I paid the price. It's not just me being cautious though. A quick look on oddschecker will show only half the bookie's have put their odds up (at time of writing) when they usually have them ready be now. This is a risky race but with higher risk hopefully will come higher reward.

I've been looking at why I made a loss in Qualy for the Hungarian GP and have decided it was down to looking for opportunities that just weren't there. Yes I could have taken a profit so a bit of greed crept in as well but let me explain what I mean.

With F1 being the only sport I trade the event's come around every 2 weeks or so. In between races I don't trade any other event and with only 18 races in a season I feel the need to trade on each and everyone of them, making as much as possible in the progress.

If for example there was a race each week I would have been more inclined to keep my book at the small green I had managed before qualy. There's was not much about and I had no real clear idea's, so knowing I only had to wait 1 week for another chance may have caused me to avoid looking for a bigger win. There is a 3 week break until Valencia which is a long period to wait. Add to this the fact it's a new track so my stakes will be smaller and thus likely a lower return and I will be away for the following race, it will be about 7 weeks before I can really get back into trading F1 properly. With that thought in the back of my mind I wanted to get in a good win - which of course caused me to be a bit greedy and lose.

The good news is the football season will be kicking off and I can concentrate on my new challenge. Hopefully having another sport to trade in between the breaks will help me avoid this kind of mentality in the future. With football there are so many games played you can afford to leave the ones which you don't find any opportunities in. With more opportunities you also don't need to be greedy - just take what you can as the next chance won't be far away.

As for the race today, I'm pleased to say I learnt from yesterdays mistakes and made enough to put me back in profit for the weekend. It's tempting to look for one trade that can win you back a loss in one go but I avoided the temptation and just took every penny I could.

I've said it many times before and I stick by opinion that no driver should be much shorter than evens before a race. Maybe on the odd occasion such as when Schumacher had won a number of races in a row and nobody could touch Ferrari it could be justified - but not in the current situation where the teams are close and the current safety car rules can change a race. I had a lay on Lewis @ 1.39 for a number of reasons - Ferrari I thought would have the better race pace, Heikki may have more fuel if Ferrari didn't have the pace and in yesterdays GP2 race the pole sitter got swamped into the first corner. Thinking about I maybe should have backed Massa to lead 1st lap @ 30+ but then hindsight is a great thing.

I greened up after the first round of stops as it looked like it would be close for the second stops. I needn't have done it though because a puncture for Lewis put an end to his race win hopes and it was Massa's for the taking. I feel sorry for Massa because he drove a great race and deserved a win but it was his engine failure which further increased my winnings. After everyone's pitted for the final time I will sometimes make a small lay if the odds are under 1.1. The small lay has little impact on my overall book so if doesn't come off I hardly notice it, but occasionally it will pay off with a nice return.

I traded 5 of the markets today and made a profit from all of them so it's put me in a good mood for the break that's now coming up. I mainly have Timo Glock to thank for this who put in a great performance all weekend and made me profits on points and podium places.

As for the this season's drivers championship it seems like nobody wants to win it! A couple of weeks ago I said Lewis looked like he would go on to claim it but between him, Massa and Kimi or wouldn't like to say who has the best chance now.

With the 3 week break I will also have a break from this section of my blog so don't expect many updates (if any at all). I may do a kind of season review post from a betting perspective but it all depends on how much spare time I can find.

I'm now going to find some value in football, if there is such a thing.

God dam it! How did I throw that away. It’s only a small loss but it’s still annoying seeing as I had a green book before the start of qualy.

I don’t know how Lewis is all of a sudden so much quicker than everyone else. I know he was quick before but never was the gap to everyone else so big. One possible reason is the competition. Kimi may as well clear his desk and retire now. We didn’t see Massa’s final lap but it was poor (maybe traffic) and I hope Heikki has more fuel otherwise he should not be that much slower than Lewis. As for BMW they seem to have decided this year is over and are putting there energy into KERS for 2009. Toyota…. you spineless fools! You had the pace to get pole but it looks like you screwed that up by taking the safe option of reasonable fuel levels. Nobody wants to take a chance these days.

Were to go from here then? I had backed Heikki for race win and if he does have more fuel then he’s in with a good chance. It’s looked like he can manage the tyres better of the long runs so he just needs to stick with Lewis and then jump him in the pits if he does have more fuel.

I know the reason for my loss – the title of my last post says it all. I had no real idea of what my plan was. I could have taken good greens in-play on Massa when I backed him at 9.6 (later traded in the 3’s) but his final runs didn’t work out. There were a number of positions (such as Trulli @ 240 later traded 40’s) I was in but just let them run because my overall liability was small. If I has concentrated on one position, knowing what conditions I would exit under etc I would have easily made a profit and that the annoying part.

I’m out tonight so I will have to look at things in the morning.

Just a quick post to say I have taken a green before qualy. I have no real strong feeling that either Heikki or Massa will get pole after seeing Q3 so the best thing to do for the moment is hold my position on a green book.

As we go into qualy the odds tend to be far more volatile and if I see anything good I may make a change. If it looks like Hamilton will get pole I will just leave it as things are. His odds have now come down to 1.8 and this time they are probably justified to be that low – but there’s no way they should have been that a week before the event. If they get much lower (say 1.5 during Q1/2) I will take a lay position on him. There’s a big threat of some low fuel attempts which would make that price worth laying. I’ve still not given up on Massa and if there’s a good price on him during Q1/2 I will take another back position.

As for the practice session I made a small loss on P1 & P2. I didn’t do the usual midfield dutch on P3 because of late the top teams have increased their pace so much, even a low fuel run from the midfield can’t beat them. It’s funny because now bet365 have tightened up on these runners they’re offering higher odds on the top drivers. The tables have turned and now you can get 4’s and 6’s on Lewis, Massa Kimi etc. Unfortunately I went for Massa who managed to get 2nd so another loss made there. The total loss on practice is almost equal to my current green on qualy so things aren’t too bad.

So far what we have seen is almost a repeat of last year. Take a look at last years practice time sheets compared to this years and you will see a lot of similarities.

I have therefore seen enough though to believe McLaren may just have a bit too much 1 lap pace for Ferrari to get pole. Massa’s odds dropped to 3.5 but I expected him to go well in P2 so didn’t trade out. He was slightly off the pace in the afternoon and I ended up trading out in the mid 4’s. A nice green still and I haven’t given up hope on him yet. I will see how the track rubbers in tomorrow (and if there was any overnight rain) before possibly jumping back on the Massa queue.

Another lay on Lewis for pole @ 1.86, means that’s twice I’ve got low odds and traded back out when the market settled, this time @ 2.06. There was no luck here as it was all down to knowing my market and being able to price up the runners. I’ve been reading Graeme’s blog over at ‘The Experiment’ as he’s been wondering if his knowledge sometimes hinders his trading. Sometimes it probably does but at the end of the day I don’t think there’s any substitute for knowing your stuff. As long as you are disciplined with your trading the knowledge can only be a help. It’s when you get big headed and don’t trade out when things go against you that it comes back to bite you in the arse. (And yes I have been bitten in the arse a few times, as have most of us Betfair users I imagine). My edge is my knowledge combined with the trading – neither would bring much success on their own (unless I was lucky), but together they make a great team!

The trading I have done so far has put me in a good position but I’ve not won a penny yet. I have now taken a position on Heikki and have achieved average odds of 28. He’s currently trading @9.8 so I could take a green but the liability is small thanks to the early trading and I think he’s a real threat. From what I gather he ran a new aero package in P1 which Lewis didn’t and he looked very strong. Lewis then used this package in the afternoon to set the fastest time in that session, however in Heikki’s own words “I was able to find a particularly good balance and focused on conserving the tyres rather than going for a laptime [in P2]”.

As for the race it will depend on whether a Ferrari can get on the front row. If they can I think they would have the long distance pace to beat the McLaren around this track. As for which Ferrari it’s hard to tell at the moment but I’m not sure Kimi has the desire anymore – I hope he proves me wrong.

Glock looked impressive in P1 so I snapped up the 4.2 for points finish that was on offer. Williams hyped themselves up for this weekend but they’re yet to show much promise. As for Piquet setting the 2nd fastest time in P2 – If you looked at last years practice times Heikki also made 2nd in P2 with Renault……he also failed to make it into Q3. I’m hoping it was just a poor car and he can do a lot better this year!