Should Massa be in a Ferrari seat? That’s a hot topic if you look around forums and message boards in the F1 world. Seems to be a lot of people are voicing there opinions and most of it negative for the Brazilian. I’m undecided on his race craft and agree this could be better, but as a far as I’m concerned he’s one of the best qualifiers out there at the moment – a bit like a young Trulli, who with age has also improved what used to be debatable race performances. I’ll let the kids in the forums have their fun because for me it’s the stats which do the talking.

This season’s stats for Massa in qualifying read 6 front rows out of 10 races, with 3 of them being poles. Of the other 4, Silverstone (9th) should be ignored because of a pit error causing him to miss the lap. Canada (6th) is the only real poor show considering the other two were 3rd and 4th.

I don’t have data for this but I remember a few times were Massa had also set the fastest lap in the first round of attempts causing his odds to plummet, only to be piped at the post (I think these were Bahrain and Germany.) That means of the 6 front rows out of 10 races you would have been shown an opportunity to trade out at odds of evens or less.

It’s hard to see past a McLaren pole but with Lewis @ 2.4 there’s no interest for me there. Heikki may be real threat to him in what he described as his best race last season. Never write off the Ferrari’s and Kubica could also pose a threat.

By Wednesday the markets are usually met in middle for the top runners but this time round there seems to be a big divide. Both Massa and Kimi are available to back at 4.5/4.9 and lay at 5.9/6.6 respectively. The bookmakers odds don’t show as much variance so what’s going on? - nobody’s seems to want to trade the Ferrari’s. As I type a total of £6486 has been matched in the Market with £4625 of that on Lewis! The Ferrari drivers are roughly responsible for £400 each and interestingly £750 on Kubica.

I have been matched for 5.6 on Massa to get pole. For me, once again the opportunity is too good to miss. He was quicker the Kimi at this track last year but missed Q3 because somehow Ferrari forgot to fuel his car! I will also keep an eye on Kubica’s performance and fuel loads in practice.

It’s looking like Heidfeld’s odds to reach Q3 are going to be a reasonable price so I will leave this alone, unless they increase beyond 1.4’s in which case I would want to back him.

There’s not much else to look at for now so I will wait to see what Friday practice brings.

Last season Betfair opened the Formula One markets on the Tuesday before each race weekend. I would usually place a few optimistic bets in at prices I felt were over/under value but not so much so that they wouldn’t get matched. I’ve been caught out the last 4 races by how early the markets have been opened (sometimes 2 days after the last race) which gives me no time to research and get things prepared (I work full time and this is all done when I get a spare moment). Not wanting to miss out on an opportunity I made sure I was ready this time around and got in early – and it paid off. A lay of Hamilton for pole @ 1.78 got matched. Unfortunately it was only partially matched (£10) but I’m not complaining because it still easy money. Now the market has settled he’s trading at 2.2 – 2.5 range so I will just back him for £10 for a small free bet which gets me off to an easier start. Every £ helps at the end of the day.

Apologies if it was you who backed me @ 1.78, but what the hell were you thinking? It really does make me wonder what some of the users on Betfair are doing. Because the markets opened so early there are no bookies prices available as a reference – maybe this person thought 1.78 was going to be a great price. Having watched these markets for the last 4 years I know, no matter how good someone was at the last race, drivers are very, very rarely priced odds on to get pole – and if they are I would still want to lay them as there would be no value in such a price.

With over 1 week to go until the race wouldn’t it have been better to hold on a bit and wait to see what the market settled at? It seems a bit like desperation – wanting to get in early and make sure you are matched, without even thinking about what odds you are getting. Maybe it was just a new to the sport British fan who just loved Lewis so much he was willing to throw away £10 on a silly bet.

Of course Hamilton may get pole and this punter will win their bet. Which I hope he does because that just means I’m likely to get matched on another equally ludicrous bet in the next race ;-)

For anyone new to betting the first thing you need to understand is value. Read as many books and articles on the subject as you can find until it’s ingrained in your brain. Keep reading and trying to understand it until you begin to have dreams about value odds!!

Sorry to sound like a nagging school teacher here but it’s something which took me ages to understand properly and I never made any long term profits until I did. If you’re starting out with betting don’t place a single bet until you understand the concept.

Normally I spend the weekend looking for value in the back side of the odds but this weekend there didn’t seem to be much about. It was the short priced odds that caught my attention and ultimately gave me a profit thanks to a few twists of fate.

I didn’t do much at the start of this race and left things alone for the first 5 or so laps.
Then at lap 12 when Hamilton’s odds were at 1.25 I decided to Lay him for race win. I know he was about 10 seconds in front at this stage but I can’t see how any driver can be these odds after 12 laps. He could have pitted anytime soon and been on a 3 stopper, could have had a problem at any of his pit stops, could have lost an engine (although getting rare these days) or some other mechanical problem …..or have his race ruined by a safety car.

It is lucky for me a safety car did make an appearance but I’m also glad I had the sense to green up this time and take the profit because he did go on to win. This was after his odds moved out to mid 3’s after rejoining 3rd. I wonder how may people were the other way around – backing low at 1.25 then taking a loss at 3’s, only to see him make two passing moves and go on to win anyway?

The Heidfeld Q2 bet came in on Saturday, not because of my theory but because he made a mistake. Both of these bets could easily have gone the other way and resulted in losses so I’m pleased to end the weekend in profit.

The other successful lay, which was not down to luck, was Kimi on fastest lap. He never looked on it all weekend and I just felt 2.72 was too low. That’s not to say I didn’t have the fastest lap market open for nearly the whole race waiting to trade out of it - you never know with Kimi as he can sometimes pull a lap from nowhere – He only won 1 of the last 6 races in which he set fastest lap.

During a race I tend to keep notes of what laps drivers stopped on mainly in case of a safety car. As soon as the safety car came out and I’d worked out the positions I placed £2 back bets on Nick and Piquet, both at 140. I then wanted to double check my notes were correct before placing more on them but it was too late. My notes were wrong for Nick but I still managed £5 green and for piquet….£35 green from a £2 stake! Dam I wish I’d put more on it….but then I think I’ve rode my luck enough this weekend.

During P3 it looked like Kimi was off the pace so I made a small green on the Lewis Pole/Kimi Winner market before qualy instead of letting it run which looks to have been a good move.

It’s a bit strange that we didn’t see the usual midfield runners top P3. Either the softer compounds didn’t give them much advantage at the time or McLaren are running light – either way I made a small loss here.

I mentioned in an earlier post I wanted to back Massa if things stayed dry. They did and his odds were a nice juicy 4.4. During Q2 I layed off the stake. Unfortunately I thought he’d bagged pole so didn’t green-up and was surprised to see Hamilton take it at the last second. He never set a purple sector on his qualy lap which is probably why I didn’t notice it – at least I didn’t loose anything though.

The Heidfeld bet came in and a Lay of Rosberg @ 1.6 to reach Q3 also came in to end the day in profit.

I had also taken a small back on Massa for race win at 5.2 which I have now traded for another free bet.

Looking ahead to today’s race and the weather is looking like it will stay dry meaning we have a good old pit strategy battle on our hands. The first problem for 10 of the cars will be getting off the line reasonably well and try to hold their positions. Past races have shown those starting on the clean side do have an advantage going into the first corner which will worry Massa. I’ve placed some bets for driver positions at the end of lap 1 - Heikki better than 3rd @ 2.75 and Kimi worse than 5th @ 2.10 (seeing as he’s starting 6th on the dirty side he has to make a position for this bet to loose).

With Massa starting on the dirty side I don’t want any liability so I will leave it as a free bet and see what happens. I have a feeling he may have slightly more fuel than the McLarens. Even if it’s 1 lap more it should be enough for him to win the race if he can keep within touching distance. The advantage being he can see how much fuel the McLarens put in and then adjust his accordingly if he stops later. That’s IF he is heavier.

Kimi’s fastest lap record looks under threat this weekend as he’s really not been on the pace at all. The track may come to him but for the moment I have a Lay @ 2.72 on him for fastest lap. If he starts to pick up I should be able to trade out for little loss.

If Trulli can hold his place off the line he should be in for a good race. Renault seem to be happy with Alonso’s fuel loads so he also could be one to watch for a podium. Vettel starting 9th on the clean side may be in with a chance of some points and @ 2.44 could be worth a shout.

It’s fair to say Nick Heidfeld’s qualifying performances this season have not been great. Whereas he team mate has achieved 1 pole and regularly achieving 1st, 2nd or 3rd row starts, Nick has been all over the place – but is it his fault?

I decided to look into this and gathered some data from my notes to form the table below. This may not be very accurate (its all from my notes and done quickly) but it’s good enough for me to get an idea of what the problem is and confirm what was expected. These are the qualy places he managed during Q2 – not the final qualy position at the end of the day.



As Nick has been saying the problem clearly is getting temperature into his tyres. In the cold races his qualy performance has been poor and has seen him fail to make the top ten twice out of the 9 races so far.

In Silverstone the temperature was around 20/21 and he managed to qualify a solid 5th and in Turkey he just scrapped in with 9th in slightly cooler conditions Both these tracks used the same tyre range as Germany will use. Therefore it could be a combination of cooler weather and softer tyres which hurts the BMW, or maybe the other cars make better use of the softer compounds, or maybe a combination of all these factors.

So far this weekend he’s looked reasonable and I would expect him to get into the top 10….but his odds are 1.15 to reach Q3. For me that’s too low.

The weather today is overcast and with a high possibility of rain this throws even more luck into the mix. The temperatures are likely to be a low of 13 and high of 23 according to reports. BMW are the most daring team when it comes to rain, leaving runs until the last minute instead of getting in a banker lap. So given all these factors I’m having a punt (not a trade - so small stake) on a lay of Nick to reach Q3. I expect to loose but the odds in my opinion are too good.

I haven’t yet done my usual dutch of q3 as I want to see what the weather’s like. I noticed last week that Bet365 were offering shorter odds before P3 because of the rain threat, which then lengthened in-play when it was dry – I will hold to see if I can get better odds later on.

Predictions for the top end of qualy are still the same as before. If its dry then the McLarens have the one lap pace and Hamilton looks to have the upper hand on Heikki this weekend.

In Silverstone I was hoping for a dry weekend for a number of reasons. It’s getting hard to tell the outright pace of each car because of the changing conditions and rain means volatility – which can be a very good thing, or very bad thing if you get caught on the wrong side of something. I’m hoping for the same in Germany this weekend but the weather forecasts predict another varied climate and possible rain. I can’t remember so many wet races in a row for a long time.

I have to base pre-race positions on the assumption it will remain dry but at the same time I can’t avoid the possible rain threat. For example it looks like there’s an overreaction to Massa’s poor performance last time out and he’s trading at odds slightly higher than I would expect – but if it rains I don’t want a back position on him (which may be a reason for the slightly longer odds)

Kimi is hoping for a dry weekend as he thinks (and I agree with him) the Ferrari is fastest in hotter conditions. Much like Silverstone, if it’s dry he will be the man to beat but the McLaren’s could prove quicker in qualy trim. That shouldn’t bother Kimi to much as he can win from 2nd/3rd if the conditions are favourable so again I could be looking for a Lewis pole/ Kimi winner strategy which is currently 8’s on betfair.

Over the last couple of years the Fastest Lap market has been a good earner for me but this year seems to be a flop. Mainly because Kimi keeps setting it and he starts off with low odds so there’s little to trade on. I won’t be using the market before the race this weekend and will only choose to enter if I think Kim’s succession of fastest laps is under threat and some good odds are on offer for other runners.

For the rest of the field we should see similar performance to Mangy-Cours which means Toyota and Renault will be looking for good points places and maybe even podiums if the front runners continue with their ‘self-destruct’ tendencies.

You would think with a chance of rain the safety car may make an appearance but I wonder if the race directors are looking to use it as minimal as possible. The run off area at Silverstone is generous which may have been the reason for a no show there, but the teams are unhappy with the current rules surrounding the use of the pits under the safety car. Until the tests on the new system are complete (which as far as I know they aren’t) I think they will look to cover most incidents under yellows/double yellows unless the accident is a big one. I shall be leaving this market alone as well unless it comes down to the 1.25 levels which were on offer in-play two weeks ago.

There are a few other interesting bets available but I shall have to keep these to myself for the moment as I’m not matched yet!

Money Management has never been a strong point of mine. It’s not because I don’t understand it or because I’m not disciplined enough to stick to a plan, but because I’ve never really had the need for it – I seem to be doing just fine without it.

My approach to trading is not that of a day trader/scalper/cold trader whatever you want to call it. All trades on Formula One are entered through knowledge of the sport and because I think the price is wrong. I have a set amount of money I’m happy to loose over the course of a race weekend (never happy to loose but you get what I mean). From that I base stakes on each individual trade based on instinct and nothing more. The more confident I am the price is wrong, the more I lump on it and vice versa. Sometimes I will get close to my limit and other times I will be nowhere near it. It’s probably an amateurish method but it works for me. There’s so much variation in my methods I have probably have an argument for not using a staking system or management strategy.

The more I look into trading football the more I’m beginning to think money management will be critical for a return in these markets. Luck is far more influential in football trading so managing the pot of money you trade with could make the difference between profit or loss – it’s possibly more important than the strategy itself. This should be a warning light to me and I really ought to be thinking about why I’m going to bother trading football at all. Not wanting to give up that easily I will continue researching, but with about 1 month to go before kick-off and still no idea of what my ‘plan’ is things aren’t looking great.

In all honesty it’s not looking like I will be able to trade football but I feel I should at least test some methods before I give in. I have a few ideas so I’m off to look for articles on money management to find the best way to put those into practice and avoid loosing my pot before the end of August. Who knows, I may even find a money method which will improve my F1 trading, which had I of used before, would have made me a millionaire by now!

I said in a previous post it will take a great drive from Lewis to win this race. I really didn’t think he would do it this year and after overdriving the car in qualy yesterday it looked like he had his work cut out. Winning the race was a great answer to his critics and trouncing the opposition was an even better one.

I have in the past favoured laying Lewis in most cases. His odds tend to be on the short side and he is prone to mistakes as every rookie is, but I will tread with more caution in the future. Some will say Kimi lost this race on the wrong tyre choices but I don’t think he would have been able beat Lewis anyway as his pace was so much quicker than everyone else. The win will have lift some of the pressure which has been building and was probably the cause of a poor race in France. It’s a 3 way tie in the championship but I can now see Hamilton going on to win it.

As for the trading I made a small loss. From the moment the race started I was on the back foot. A green up of the Heikki bet after the first lap gave me a return on race winner but the big looser for me was fastest lap. Kimi set the fastest lap once again (I think that’s 6 in a row now) and because the rain then slowed the times I had no way of exiting backs on Heikki, Lewis, Alonso and Webber.

I thought about backing a safety car but luckily I didn’t. With so many spins and rain it’s surprising it didn’t make an appearance. The trouble with rain is you can either win big or loose big so it was a conservative and quiet race for me from a trading perspective.

After yesterdays win I still end the weekend in profit so it’s been another good weekend for me.

Sometimes you have to accept you were wrong and move on (something Lewis should do) because clinging to a belief which the facts in front of you are saying otherwise is not a good idea. I was wrong about how things would pan out this weekend but it’s a good job I realised it early, otherwise I would be steering at a loss and not a nice green. I would have been tied into outright bets and lost the lot so trading comes up trumps again.

In my post earlier today I mentioned I was trading Heikki’s odds and in the end decided to leave a small back bet open @ 13.5. He was showing great pace all through qualy and I was still tempted to back him at the mid 4’s on offer before Q3. At this stage it was only going to be a battle between him and Lewis with the only unknown being fuel loads. I kept a close eye on things with the mouse hovering over the submit button, ready to hedge should the odds drift. I always set up very short lay’s of drivers I’ve backed in case of a last second switch in positions (it’s happened a couple of time this season) This is the result –






With this mornings win on P3, the qualy win and the back bet @ 15.5 on Heikki to win the race I’m in a good position for the race.

I did loose a little on lays for Heidfeld and Vettel in the ‘to reach q3’ market, but a back of Piquet put me back in profit.

I don’t think any predictions on tomorrow’s race would be wise until the weather is known.

A good start to the day as Alonso topped P3 to get me off to a winning start. Bet365 drastically cut their odds on ‘to top p3’ but I still managed to find value. I cut down on the amount of runners I selected and just backed Alonso, Webber, Kubica and Rosberg. Alonso and Webber came in 1st and 2nd so a good bet in the end.

Ferrari look off the pace but I can’t help thinking they are hiding something. I have exited all of my previous positions as it looks like I was wrong – firstly I’m no longer convinced Lewis will get pole on pure pace and Massa looks to be the quicker of the two Ferrari’s. Luckily I held out for good odds when I entered the market and have been able to make a small green from them.

What’s strange is Heikki’s odds. Very rarely do you see so much volatility in F1 odds – they tend to gradually go down or up, but Heikki has been constantly trading between 10 and 14 on the pole market. I’ve been using small stakes and trading these prices to get a small free bet on him. I’m considering just entering the market and leaving the bet to run in-play with this one as Heikki has looked quicker the Lewis all weekend, but will McLaren give him more fuel than Lewis to allow the britt a better chance at pole? Maybe that’s why there’s so much variation because although he’s quicker he could still end up behind Lewis on the grid. A heavier fuel load would mean a good race strategy for him so I have now backed Heikki to win the race. Watch out for Alonso putting in a good qualy performance too, maybe not pole but 3rd row at least.

The set-ups could also play a key part in this qualy session. Do you go for wet or dry set-up? Get a good grid slot and struggle in the race or settle for the a (hopefully) good race.

Taking a photo of a moving F1 car is not easy. At Monaco it could be done because the speeds are slower but Silverstone – no chance! I gave up in the end and just recorded some clips, one of which is below. I was Just having a little play with youtube as I’ve never uploaded any videos before. It’s of Piquet going through Maggots up to Becketts. I was trying to give an idea as to the speeds they go through that section of the track but it just doesn’t translate to TV/video. (and filming piquet probably wasn't the best move either! Saying that I have money on him to finish in the points, doh)



The other thing I missed today was the drop in Heikki’s odds from 20 to 12’s on pole position. Looks like I backed him a race to early as he’s looking a serious contender. As for Kimi – what going on? Are they expecting rain and testing 1 stop fuel loads? Who knows….. It’s getting late now after a long day so I will have to get up early and look into what really happened tomorrow morning. The weather conditions will also be better known in the morning so everything’s on hold for the moment.

I don’t know what I mean by that title but it sounds good. A few friends asked me if I was serious about my Silverstone prediction seeing as this is what happened last year, “are you really going to back the same thing to happen again?” – yes is the simple answer.

I can understand the thinking because the same thing happening twice in a row would on the surface appear to be unlikely – but this is not really what I’m doing. If I was to back Lewis getting pole and the Kimi winning the race before the 2007 race and at the same time placing the same bet on the 2008 race, I would agree it’s a bit absurd. What I am doing is backing on the 2008 race what I believe is the most likely outcome, which just happens to be what happened last year as well.

Looking into it a bit more deeply you could say what happened last year is also quite likely to happen again this year. It’s likely to be a fight between Ferrari and McLaren again because they are the fastest cars and the two drivers who look quickest at this track are Kimi and Lewis. I don’t want to write off Massa but I think he’d be fairly happy coming home second to Kimi around here as this would be his best result at Silverstone and he’d only drop 2 points to him.

I therefore don’t believe I should ignore the most likely outcome just because it’s what happened last Year. If it’s the most likely outcome, that’s what I want to take a position on (if the odds are value) regardless of whether its’ happened the last 10 years or never at all.

The problem so far is the odds are not of any value. Kimi is a good favourite for the race and Lewis’ pole odds are too short because the British punters are throwing their money at him. I can’t get matched at anywhere near a decent price. Saying that I did spot Kimi’s pole odds were a little high and backed him @ 3.55 which has now come in to 3.2.

Alonso is trading at some good prices in most markets so I’m trying to get involved there and what about Heidfeld not making the top 10 in qualy again – that may be an interesting one to watch?

If you are going to Silverstone tomorrow make sure you say hello. I will be the one wearing a Vodafone McLaren t-shirt…..

I was hoping for a nice clean fight this weekend with no penalties etc, but it looks like the weather may play a part once again. A 60% chance of rain on raceday and possible rain in qualy means this may turn into a lottery – in which case in-play betting is the way to go.

I will have to cut my stakes down and play on the basis it won’t rain, leaving a pot behind in case it does. I normally like rain to spice things up and provide some volatility in the odds – you can make some great trade in the right places. Last race I backed Rubens at 1000 when he pitted first of everyone for wet tyres. Unfortunately the rain didn’t continue but I still managed to green up that bet for £5 - if it had continued to rain the green up would have been much much more.

This time around though I would prefer no rain. It’s been a while since we’ve been able to compare the top teams in a ‘fair’ fight (no penalties or no rain) and it would have been interesting to see what progress had been made in testing.