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E-mailF1 is great for me but with only 18 races I spend allot of the year with nothing to do but research. This is not such a bad thing as I work full time (mon-fri, 9-5) and F1 alone takes up much of my spare time. So I’ve decided these are the criteria for the sport/market I need.
- Ideally a sport televised in the UK/Sky
- Preferably a sport I would enjoy following and watching (there’s no point if you don’t enjoy it!)
- Has to have adequate liquidity. Doesn’t have to be massive but enough to get matched when needed.
- The event is outside of work hours – evenings or weekends - and not on too late so that rules out most
- It is tradable! Some sports/markets don’t lend themselves to trading
To help me decide has anyone got any suggestions? Don’t worry, I’m not after tips or trading strategies! I’m just interested to here what sports people are trading and the pros/cons for each. Feel free to leave a comment or e-mail: mail@flutterfly.co.uk
When I’ve decided on my selection I will use this blog to document my progress from complete newbie at trading a sport to (hopefully) successful trader.
Not much to report after today’s race. A small profit but not enough to cover yesterday’s loss means I end the weekend down.
Successful trades on Kimi for fastest lap came in thanks to one quick lap from
Not a great weekend for me but that’s the game. As long as I can keep losses to a minimum I’m happy.
I mentioned yesterday that Lewis was trading in the 9’s for pole. I decided not to back him then because it was likely neither McLaren or Ferrari would shine in P3 due to fuel loads so his odds were likely to drift further for no real reason. Drift they did and all the way out to a tempting 13.5 which is were I entered the market. A strange thing happened as soon as the market went in-play – within 4 minutes of the start of Q1 (remember nothing really matters in Q1) and even before Lewis had turned a wheel the odds dropped and began trading as low as 6. You can see on the graph how erratic the trading was during a time when nothing had happened at all. Traded for a nice free bet with the intention of greening this if the odds came down ( I thought it would be close but ultimately he wouldn’t get pole) – but a dismal Q3 for McLaren means I never got the chance and the trade was wasted. No loss but disappointing not to get anything from this.
Quick Nick is not so quick
It looked as though BMW were switching strategies between the drivers each race. One would have roughly 17 and the other 21 laps of fuel and it would have worked out for Nick to get the lighter fuel load this weekend. I placed the outright on Nick to beat Kubica early in the weekend and had it been a trade I would have got out quickly as it was evident from P1 Nick was struggling. His 9th place is a poor showing and its possible BMW decided to give Kubica the lighter load rather than waste it on Nick who was never going to threaten the front row of the grid.
I’m annoyed with this because I should have seen it coming. Alonso’s showing is (and his fans will disagree) clearly a low fuel glory run. May not be that low but even 2 or 3 laps would have given him the edge he needed to please the fans and a Renault team in need of a lift (I want to point out at this stage this is not a criticism. I respect Alonso and think he's a great driver but both he and Pay Symonds have in as many words admitted to a low fuel load - nothing wrong with going light IMO) He was trading at big odds and was around 48 when he started his flying lap – would have been a great trade but…….
Betfair screw-up
When Alonso set the fastest lap for some strange and absurd reason the market suspended! This was a critical time with seconds to go in qualy and they suspend it. In all honesty I was both lucky and unlucky at the same time. I put a back order in but the market suspended and it was cancelled. It was suspended from the moment Alonso set provisional pole to the moment Kimi stole it from him. Had I been matched I would never been able to trade out. Take a look at the graph and it appears nobody managed to trade out their position as trading stopped from the moment he set the fast lap - with 48 being the last matched amount. I would have been seriously peeved if my bet did get matched – although I’m equally peeved I couldn’t back Kimi when he was setting a quick lap. Earlier in the week they had to reset the ‘reach Q3’ market and void all bets. www.punt.com made a good post about trusting Betfair and I know F1 is not their biggest money maker – but if you are going to offer a service then a service you should offer.
So I ended with a small loss on the qualy market. Although the Nick bet was free bet money I’m still going to count that on top of this loss. I got things wrong but once again the loss is minor compared to the returns I’ve been getting, however I can’t see much opportunity for good returns on the race tomorrow.
I have resisted temptation so far and kept my money in my pocket. If the Ferrari’s are quick its tough to call which one will get pole, let alone take into consideration possible low fuel attempts from BMW and even maybe McLaren. Lewis’ odds have drifted to 9 which is almost interesting me so I will keep an eye on him in P3 – if the track comes to him tomorrow morning those odds could shorten to about 4-5 ....but that’s a big IF which is why I haven’t taken a position yet.
I have done a small outright on some midfield runners to top P3. If the top 3 teams continue to test 15-20 lap fuel qualy runs and with the grid covered by a few seconds, anyone trying a 3 lap qualy run could find themselves at the top of the timesheet.
Update: I had a £25 free bet with an online bookie which I have just placed on Heidfeld to qualify higher than Kubica @ 2.5.
I have taken a small position on a couple of markets but most of my funds will be kept aside for in-play bets. I class the time during practice sessions as ‘in-play’ even though technically its not, but again these stakes will be minimal. There are a couple of trends I want to keep an eye on this weekend and I want to have funds available if they look to be happening again.
So it’s a slow build up to the race weekend but better to be ready to pounce than be pounced upon. Many times in the past I have taken a position for the sake of just getting some money on the race. Sometimes you will be lucky but most times you will see the market go against you – only to realise you then can’t take the position you should be taking because it would involve to high stakes.
I’ve been looking up some other blogs over the last few weeks and found a couple of interesting ones which I added in the link section. I’m looking for another sport to start trading so reading these blogs is a great help - I just need to find a sport that’s right for me and I will keep you posted on my progress.
It hardly ever rains in Spain and that was the outlook for this race, but a few reports have started to creep in showing possible showers. I think it’s mainly people hopeful of a bit of excitement in what usually is a precession race… but we will see.
Click on picture to enlarge
That’s me sitting in an old Nigel Mansell car. Unfortunately it was just the shell but it didn’t matter because as you can see I was struggling to reach the peddles anyway!
The last picture is an ‘official timing’ log from the Zeltveg GP in 1982. These days I sit at a PC in my room, watching the times for every driver on every lap just seconds after the lap time was set. I will never complain again when the live timing is ‘slow’ or the ITV practice feed fails.
Here is the graph I posted earlier but this time I have shaded some area’s to show what was happening.
Click picture to enlarge
As explained most of my trades are entered because I’ve done some research and I feel the odds are either over or under valued. In this is case I felt the odds being offered when the market first opened where far too high so a back bet was placed. It’s important to look at this as a trade and not a bet – in other words I’m looking to get out at some point and I want the minimum amount of risk possible. The start of the blue line shows when I entered the market and at what price (7.8)
What are the risks before a wheel is turned?
Not much in this case. It would have been very hard for the odds to have drifted at this price and if they did it would have been a slow and steady move outwards giving me plenty of time to re-evaluate and make a choice on whether to exit or not. Any exit would have been for a small loss if the odds did drift.
As you can see from the graph the odds came in slightly before the start of first practice which is a good start.
Practice 1
A good performance in the practice session causes the odds to drop further as Massa is 1.067 seconds quicker than anyone else. I could exit but a lot of resistance in the market is keeping the odds at a high level (I don’t know why people thought he was not capable of getting pole?). A bit of an over reaction during testing and the entrance of some layers after the session causes the odds to end up around 5.5. I know the afternoon session will be similar and other than Massa crashing and causing an injury to himself (car damage is almost irrelevant on Fridays) I felt safe for the rest of the day so no action is taken.
I could have taken a small green at this time but I was confident in my research and felt these odds still represented great value – I don’t want to get out if I would still be happy to back the runner had I already not already taken a position.
Practice 2
Massa’s looking strong finishing the just behind Hamilton in the timing. Still the odds are not coming down as much as I would hope and end the day slightly higher than the day’s lowest point. Due to F1 being a world wide event the odds can change over night as people in other parts of the world drag themselves out of bed to their PC screens. The bet is therefore left to run until the next day, knowing any movement in odds should be in my favor (otherwise I have seriously miss-read the situation!)
Practice 3
You start to run a risk now because car/engine damage could dramatically change things if grid penalties are handed out or the team don’t have enough time to repair damage. As you can see the graph is a lot more erratic during this session as the drivers and teams are trying different set-ups and fuel loads – all of which gives a distorted view of what’s actually going on. If I have no position on a driver I will try some small and quick trades during this session – usually to get ‘free bets’ on runners and improve my overall book.
Massa ends up 3rd but having watched his times I still feel confident. In hindsight the point I have marked with a grey arrow shows what was probably the best time to exit. Qualy has not even started but I could have locked in a nice free bet on Massa to get pole.
I didn’t take any action because there’s a good chance Massa will top one of the qualy phases and lower the odds further….so I hang on in there.
Qualy
Massa didn’t top either of the first two qualy sessions – no panic! I’m still confident he’s got what it takes and the odds seem to be holding steady around the 4.0 mark. As nobody has even attempted a qualy run at this stage I hold on. Unfortunately the weather in Malaysia is unpredictable and the TV pictures suddenly display the message ‘rain in 6 minutes’. Rain would cause this to become a lottery so its my signal to exit this trade. The yellow line shows when and what price (about 3.55). I layed off my liability at this stage to get a free bet rather than green-up as the rain had not actually started – notice how the odds start to drift as people loose confidence in him nailing a lap in possible wet weather. The cars go out to make their first pole attempts and Massa come’s out on top – shown by the sudden drop in odds to 2.
The rain is yet to surface so they come in to change tyres and all go out for another try. As people fail to beat his time the odds come in further until he shows them the way with a final lap which nobody looks like beating. The rain never came and Massa takes pole meaning I could gave just let the bet run – but that would be gambling and not trading. If anyone else had looked like beating him I would have changed the free bet to a greened book but it didn’t need to happen.
Its easy after the event to look at this and say “you could have won a lot more on an outright bet” which is true. Look at the time I exited and what happened to the odds – what if Massa hadn’t set a great lap – that sudden drop would have become a sudden jump upwards – he could have spun off or had mechanical problems – what if the rain everyone expected had started?. At the following race in Bahrain most people had Massa down for pole because of this performance. His graph would have looked similar apart from two things. It started much lower but did continue to drop as he set good times. The other difference is the end of the graph suddenly shoots up and not down as Kubica steals pole from him – an outright bet would have been worthless in this case.
I wanted to make a post about trading F1 and my strategy etc but as soon as I started I realised it would be a massive post. I’ve decided to break it up into a series of posts, each concentrating on specific area. This first post will be a kind off ‘dummies guide’ to the make up of an F1 race weekend, because this alone gives you some advantages over other sports.
An F1 weekend consists of the following.
- The teams arrive at the circuit during the week and by Thursday each team will have made a press statement about their hopes for the race and what they think about the track. Also an official press conference is held with selected drivers and team officials.
- Friday consists of two practice session, each 90 minutes long. Here the teams will try to ‘dial’ the cars into the track. The data from these sessions is analysed over night so they can start to make a plan of attack for the rest of the weekend.
- Saturday morning has another practice session which is 60 minutes long. This will allow them to fine tune the cars, making changes based on yesterdays data etc. They will also practice their qualifying runs.
- Saturday afternoon holds the qualifying session. These days it consist of three parts with the worst 6 cars being eliminated from the first and second.
- Sunday is race day. For the teams and drivers this is the only thing that matters as the race is the only event from which points can be scored.
So how does all this help with trading and betting? Well apart for the press conference for obvious reasons you can bet on all of the events independently. More importantly, as each event happens it has a direct reflection on the odds available.
Imagine a football game where everyone watched the teams in the 15 minute warm up. Imagine if the odds on Liverpool moved from 2.1 to 3.1 before kick-off because Torres missed 7 shots out of 10 in his warm-up.
As F1 is also about technology there is lots of data freely available which, if used correctly, can provide a good insight into how things may unfold. Torres missing 7 shots out of 10 in a WARM-UP is not a reason for the odds to drift – Ferrari being over 1 second quicker than McLaren in practice would be a good reason for the odds to change (unless this was expected). In my opinion too much is made of the practice results in terms of odds movements but I’m not going to complain – they should move at times but you will often see an over reaction followed by a correction.
Unfortunately you can’t trade on the outcome of practice sessions, but any qualifying and race markets can be. Therefore anything that happens in on the preceding events will move their odds. As you have nearly a day to review the data and do some research between the events you have plenty of time to make your choices. It also gives you time to scan all the bookies/exchanges to find the best odds. I have tried trading other sports but I’m not really one for making quick decisions based on a hunch. With F1 I can take my time and base choices on hard facts.
In total you have 3 practice sessions and the first 2 qualifying phases before anyone makes an attempt for pole position. It’s like football teams playing a few games as a warm-up before they play the ‘official’ one. You have all of the data from these sessions to help you make a prediction as to who will get pole – and therefore be in the best position to win the race.
Of course things sometimes don’t happen as you would expect and last weeks pole from Kubica was probably one of those times for a lot of people. I mentioned the press conference above because you can pick up some great tips from the teams and drivers. If you then go back and review past races at the track along with the seasons data so far, you can learn huge amounts about team’s strategies.
For those wanting to just dip in and out of markets trading the odds without doing research or understanding F1, there are some markets which will allow this (I will post about these later). For the majority of my ‘betting’, hours of research and a good understanding of F1 are the basis for most of my trades.
To round –up:
- If a team’s technical director says “our car will suit this track” he’s saying it because the car probably will. It may not mean it will win but if, for example, it’s a car on the brink of points in each race, it may be worth looking into entering the ‘points finish’ market. Used with your own research it will help you make a choice.
- F1 is as much a technology as a sport. This means any data/stats provided are usually a good indicator (unlike possession in a football game which has no direct link to the score line)
- The F1 weekend provides loads of data and stats which you can use to enter/exit from trades before anything has actually happened in terms of that market.
- If you get things wrong you can (sometimes) exit the market with a small loss. Apart from a retirement form the race, the odds will generally move in one direction or the other and not jump erratically all over the place. If you are quick enough you should be able to minimise losses and let winning trades run. Comparing this to football again, a goal not in your favour will cause the odds to instantly drift to a much longer price and may mean an instant loss on some markets.
This is just a simple overview so future posts will select one market and explain them in more detail.
It all stems back to not having a ‘plan’ for the race. Although I thought Kubica may attempt a low fuel pole position, I didn’t think about what this would mean for the race. With no plan I just traded randomly on whatever I fancied - maybe the good wins I have had put me in a cocky mood where I thought I could just wing-it.
The loss is again small so I’m not too concerned and as ww.punt.com would say - I have paid a small price for my tuition fees. Yesterdays win far out ways today’s loss, but it’s still disappointing to take a hit.
It all started with a simple theory which went wrong. As Massa started on the dirty side and given his showing in races, I decided a lay on race win would be a good move pre race at 2.4. Not once in the Bahrain grand prix has the 2nd place man taken the lead into the first corner but that’s exactly what Massa did. Not only content with ruining my race win position I also layed him to lead in the first lap – a market which is almost impossible to trade out of if things go against you. I realised it wasn’t my day when Massa stayed out longer than Kimi, proving what a great qualifier he is. At this point I traded out for a loss.
A few times it looked like Kimi may pass him in the pits (I clawed a little more back trading his odds) but he never really threatened. It would have been interesting to see if he would have pushed Massa harder had Lewis also been in a good points scoring position – he still has to see Lewis his main rival and with Lewis not scoring anything why risk loosing 8 points to get another 2.
To make things worse, an accidental click of the mouse button caused a one-click bet to be placed which I really didn’t want to be, on the fasted lap market. These things will happen – it’s just bloody annoying when they do! Of all the places my mouse could have been when I clicked it, it’s sods law it was not a favourable one. I spent the second half of the race trading back to a position of -£2 thanks to a few exchanges of fastest lap in the later part of the races. I was in a good position before wrongly placing the bet which makes it more annoying as the trading I done afterwards would have moved that position even further – possibly giving a return from the race instead of a loss.
Button started in 9th and I also decided to trade on him on a points finish, so typical of today’s luck he had an incident on the first corner which as good as put an end to his race.
A three week break until Barcelona gives me plenty of time to look at what I done wrong today and get fully prepared for next time. With 3 races gone I’ve made a small loss on the first and then two big profits. If the season carries on this way I will be more than happy.
Bahrain Qualy: Of course there’s also BMW…….
4 Comments Published by John on Saturday, April 5, 2008 at 1:51 PM.
Well things went almost perfectly for me today even though I may have got a bit lucky – but then you’ve got to be in it to win it.
I had a feeling BMW would go light (Which I think Kubica is) to try and get pole this week. To be honest I originally backed Heidfeld but after a poor showing in P1 I layed this bet and backed Kubica instead. He took pole, just beating Massa. Massa was unlucky with traffic as he could have gone quicker but his bad luck was my good luck and another good win comes my way.
Because I was concentrating so much on Kubica I missed a good chance to lay off the liability on my Lewis bet. As this was a matched free bet I’m not too concerned – the Kubica trade also made much more than this anyway. Again though I think he could be slightly on the lighter side. They had to do something to stop the Ferrari’s walking away with it this weekend and low fuel was the obvious option.
Two new markets on Betfair also proved profitable. I used smaller stakes but bets on Trulli and Rosberg to reach Q3, as well as a lay of Massa/Massa on the pole/Win market gave reasonable returns.
One nice win was a successful dutch on ‘who will top practice’ with BET365. I backed Rosberg @ 80 to top P1 which he missed out by 0.1 sec but recovered that loss with a back of Massa in the dutch. P3 is very interesting because the top teams have no reason to try a low fuel run – they know they can get through to Q3 so why waste time on this, they are far better testing race fuel runs. This gives a good opportunity for ‘midfield’ runners to top the session. These runners are usually priced around 30 to 80 so can make a great ducting bet. Rosberg came good in P3 @ 34!
So another successful qualy session for me and now in a good starting position for the race as I layed Kimi at low odds. I would not want to make a call on who will win tomorrow though!
I’m taking a different approach this weekend as I believe the pole sitter will not be the best driver or the best car, but the one who goes for the lowest fuel load. It will be far closer between Ferrari and McLaren than in Malaysia and I have taken a punt on Hamilton for pole.
His odds on Betfair have been equal to the best bookies odds available (4.3). It just so happens one of the bookies offering 4.3 is Betdirect, who are one of the few I don’t have an account with. For good measure there also offering a free £50 matched bet. I may lay off the liability on Betfair if the odds drop at any point or I may let it run.
A big factor in my choice is the tyres which will be used this year compared to last. They will use a slighter softer tyre (Softs/Medium’s instead of Medium/Hard’s) and McLaren can sometimes make better use of these. Ferrari find it harder to get good one lap pace out of the softer tyres. Also looking at last years fuel loads, Lewis opted for the lowest to give him a good grid slot (2nd) and keep a faster race pace Kimi behind him. With Ferrari looking like they could be quicker this weekend I see no reason why he wouldn’t try the same again.
Of course there’s also BMW…….
I had a small stakes attempt at trading some of the weekend’s premiership games and failed miserably. I thought Liverpool would beat Everton, mainly because without Cahill I don’t think Everton can create much, plus being at Anfield an all, I thought a lay of Everton would be a good choice. Why then did I back Everton once I had seen the odds? (Liverpool went on to win)
With F1 I can get a good indication of the ‘correct’ odds and spot value – with football I’m hopeless.
Back to the F1 and I’m not yet sure how I want to ‘play’ this weekend’s race. On the surface it looks like Ferrari should win it, but dig a little deeper and things don’t seem so clear cut. There’s no doubt this race will be closer than Malaysia. In Australia Ferrari screwed up and handed the win to McLarern – McLaren then screwed up and handed the win to Ferrari in Malaysia. So if they both get it right this weekend who’s going to come out on top?
It’s good to see Betfair have created a new market for ‘Qualifying Round 3 – top 10’. This should be an interesting market with some good possibilities. Only problem is with most new markets they take a while for people get confident with them meaning the liquidity is usually poor for a while. The liquidity so far on the other F1 markets hasn’t been great but this is expected. Firstly it’s the start of the season and both races have taken place during the night in Europe. Hopefully this race will see an improvement now we are back to ‘normal’ start times.