A good finish to a good weekend with a further profit from the race. It feels like I’ve done half the work I did last week when I made a small loss but I guess it’s just the way things go. Last week every trade/bet seemed to go against me whereas this week everything went my way and I could sit back watching the money roll in.

Massa is a great qualifier but I had doubts about his race pace so I waited for the odds to drop after the first lap then layed him for race win. Turned out well because Kimi passed him in the pits and for the 2nd time in succession he dropped it in a corner to spin out of the race.

I took advantage of Bet365’s offer of 3.75 on Kovalainen to finish the first lap less than 3rd place, which was being offered whilst the McLaren’s were under investigation by the stewards. With a 5 grid slot penalty the bet became an almost sure thing – wish I’d have put more down on it know but with the race stewards and FIA you never know what decision they will come to.

The only trade not going my way was on Alonso for podium as it looked at one stage like he could be 1 stopping. He didn’t and I had to take a loss but nothing major.

Several other trades went my may in-play to give me a nice looking profit so far this season. With a two week break till the next race I may post a bit more about my thoughts on F1 betting next week.

I’m off down the pub to spend my winnings and watch the super Sunday football.

Well the Massa predictions came good and he nailed an almost perfect lap to take pole position. My only disappointment is with the threat of rain I decided to lay off my liability in-play. It still left a sizeable chunk for a Massa pole but it’s always annoying when that happens – but if the rain had turned up I don’t think he would have been able to achieve top spot, so I can be pleased in the knowledge it was probably the right thing to do.

The graph below shows his odds over the week. The blue line is my entry point with the yellow line being the time I layed for a ‘free bet’ on Massa to get pole. At this time rain was expected in 10 minutes time but in Malaysia you never know. Had it rained I would then have greened-up but Massa went on to win.

I also had a smaller trade on Massa race win – the graph for this looks similar allowing me to trade out for another green. As too did a points finish bet on Trulli.

Time now to look at the race and with the chance of rain it could mean some great in-play betting which means I will leave most of my funds available for this rather than tie them up in pre race bets. I am now in a position whatever happens in the race I will not make a loss this weekend and have made more than enough to cover last weeks loss.

A good start to the weekend with the outright bet on Massa topping P1 coming in. He also set the 2nd fastest time in P2 so it’s currently looking good for my trade on pole position. The only problem is the odds haven’t yet come down as much as I expected. At 5.60 I feel it still offers value so don’t really want to trade out at this point.

This does cause an issue as I think Hamilton may be slightly quicker on one lap pace and if he tops P3, Massa’s odds could start to drift out again. Having some money in the bank already helps because I could afford to let the bet run and accept a small loss if he doesn’t nail it. I may have to trade the bet in-play but if it rains then all hell will break loose and who knows what will happen. Decisions, decisions……

Massa’s P2 time was at the end of a 9 lap stint whereas Lewis’ time was at the start of a 5 lap stint on softer tyres. Kimi set his best time in a 14 lap stint so it looks like the Ferrari everyone expected to turn up at Australia has arrived. But then Ferrari also looked good last Friday so this could all change tomorrow.

It looks like this weekends Malaysian Grand Prix is going to be a tough one to predict, probably even harder than the first race. The problem is Ferrari. The problem with Ferrari is, do they themselves, have a problem!

Although their weekend in Melbourne was poor, it was at the same time not so bad. They showed pace through the weekend (clearly fastest on Friday) and Kimi was probably the third quickest driver in the race behind Kovalainen and Lewis. So the question is: Are Ferrari on the pace of Mclaren? It’s hard to tell because their weekend had so many interruptions due to reliability – which is the problem. I would expect them to be far better this weekend but will they be good enough. It’s worth noting Ferrari tend to be happier on the harder end scale of tyres which will be used in Malaysia.

Looking through the odds one thing stands out. Massa has been trading at above 8 and is still in the 7’s as I write so there is possibly some value here. Last year at this race he sat on pole and before the event he was 2.80 (ish) to get it. This was in different circumstances to this year with Ferrari having won the first race (albeit in the hands of Kimi) but…..

1. Last year Massa was quicker than Kimi all weekend. He was fastest in P1 & P2 and 2nd to Hamilton in P3.
2. He did throw the race away, spinning off while battling with Lewis and showed his race craft is not quite what it could be – but this is a bet for pole – not race win.
3. Funnily enough, just as in last weeks race, the last time Ferrari failed to finish both cars was Australia 06. Meaningless fact I know but in the race which followed new boy Massa showed Mr Schumacher how to drive this track. Starting at the back he made his way though the pack to beat Schumacher and finish one place above him in 5th. He only started at the back because of an engine change so we don't know what he could have achieved in qualy.
4. In 2005 he outperformed another championship winning team mate (but then anyone could have beat Villeneuve that year) in the Sauber. He also clocked quickest time in P2.

Anyway I could go on. What I’m getting at is he’s no slouch around this track. It’s a fast long high speed corner kind of track – just the kind Massa goes well on.

I don’t think he will get pole if I’m completely honest. But I do believe he’s in with a shot and anything around 7 has to be value right? I’m sticking my neck out here and could look a fool but I don’t care. I’m sure at some point this weekend those odds will be shortened and I can make a trade and then it won’t make any difference as to whether he gets pole or not.

A small outright bet has been placed with BET365 who are offering 7.00 on Massa to top first practice.

The biggest risk I’m running is booze related. It’s Easter weekend which means I will be out most nights and with another night time/early morning race, my trading ability may not be what it should!

Most of my betting will therefore be done in-play as I don’t want positions ruined because I slept in and missed a practice session. A headache and a red book will not make me happy.

Well a loss is not the best way I would have liked to start off this blog but never mind. I’m reasonably happy as the loss is minimal and after the way qualifying went I knew it would be hard to get much from the weekend.

As soon as Lewis got pole the race was his to loose. As odds on favourite I didn’t see much point in backing him. For me the return compared to the risk of engine/mechanical failure, being taken out by another car or an unfortunately timed safety car is not worth it. He won easily but as Kovalainen found out the safety car can ruin your race as what looked like a guaranteed 2nd place for him turned into 5th. I therefore prefer to take the position of laying an odds on driver with view to greening it in-play. I never got the chance in this race as nobody could put up a decent fight and his odds just shortened.

I claimed some back by laying selected drivers not to finish. This may be an interesting market in the future now driving aids are removed and the market has been made available in-play. All the spreads and outright bets before the race indicated around 15/16 cars would finish, as was the case in most races last year. Only 7 cars actually made it to the end!

A few other bets and trades reduced the loss on Hamilton’s win to comfortable amount. As I said in the previous post I normally loose on the first race which is why I use reduced stakes for what is the toughest one to predict all season. The only reason I show an interest at all is because if you can get it right the return should be big.

Time to review the stats, find out where I went wrong and what I can do about it for the next race in Malaysia which is only a week away.

After qualifying I took a look at the race win market and noticed someone had used the new ‘keep bet’ function and there were bets ready to be taken when the market re-opened. I’ve never used keep bet because it wouldn’t really help with my style of betting and I can only see it as bad thing such as in this example.

I was hovering over the odds with my one-click software (I use Fairbot) refreshing at a high rate, ready to pounce, but someone beat me to it. (unless the bet was cancelled while the market was suspended – if you can do that – looking at the graph I think it was matched though)

So the question is why on earth you would use keep bet in this instance. The only way the bet would have been matched is if Kimi had put in a real poor show in qualy, but then why accept those odds? As Kimi had technical problems his odds immediately went far higher. Some lucky person with a quicker internet connection than me managed to lay £85 @ 2.42. Some unlucky (or sloppy) person(s) could have had their £85 backed @ 27.

Phew! How did I get out of this with a very small loss.

All the pre-season talk was about how quick Ferrari are, how McLaren would be quick but distracted from last years spy scandal and how BMW have taken a step back. It was therefore a bit of a surprise to see Ferrari off the pace, McLaren on song and BMW looking far better than even they expected.

At the start of the week I was backing Kimi for pole. The odds weren’t great but it looked like a done deal, especially when he set the fastest time in Friday’s practice. On Saturday things seemed to change for the worse and I’m still not sure why, so I took a small green. Massa’s odds were high at 5 and as he now looked slightly quicker than Kimi it was him I decided to back. A good move in hindsight because Kimi had a fuel pump problem and retired from the session. This caused Massa’s odds to drop to into the 2’s and would have been I nice green if I decided to take it….which I didn’t. I felt, as had everyone pre-season that Ferrari had the quickest package.

At the end of Q2 Massa didn’t look as quick as everyone expected and the odds drifted quickly. I took a small loss when I exited at 5.5 but quickly got a covering bet on Lewis while he was still at 2.4. This was enough to cover most of my losses without to much risk on the ‘outsiders’.

I did have money on Kubica and he really should have taken pole but clipped the grass- loosing a few tenths. It would have been a nice win, and again maybe I should have greened up, but at the end of the day a loss of just over a measly £3 feels more like a win. I got it completely wrong and yet I didn’t pay for it.

Click picture to enlarge

There's another long night ahead so just passing the time by writing a post about my setup. I took this picture last night and it shows how I like to have things.

The three screens which are required for all the information you need to see at one time. Normally the TV pictures would take up half a screen as I would have further information for the qualifying and race. The laptop is also used as back-up should the main PC crash or if there’s a power cut. Of course a power cut would take out the broadband but I have a mobile which comes in handy as the laptop can connect through this if needed.

A crash of either the PC or laptop has happened on more than one occasion so the back-up comes in handy. I don’t want to spend hours on research, slogging away for ticks here and there only to see a black screen at a vital point or, typically, in the middle of a quick trade.

The most essential tool for me is probably my calculator!

Today the F1 season starts for me. The odds for a race weekend are usually available the Monday/Tuesday beforehand and that’s were my work begins. With the Australian GP in Melbourne this Sunday I’ve been taking a look at what’s on offer.

The first race of the season is always a toughie because there are so many unanswered questions. From a betting perspective there’s also a few other issues to take into account…

• Nobody, not even the team’s, have an idea of the comparative speed. Some know they are quick but until they go full throttle against each other they won’t know if they are quick enough.
• The rookies can always spoil it for someone in their first race.
• With the race in Australia the timing means you have to get up in the night to watch it. This means low liquidity on the in-play markets.
• Again as it’s an Australian market, I’m sure the casual punters are put off by some of the restrictions (even though it’s simple)
• The casual punters tend to be brought to markets as things develop. I doubt many of them will currently be thinking about placing wagers on the first race – most of them probably don’t even realise the first race is this weekend. The more it’s on TV and the news of Lewis is rammed down our throats (those in the UK that is!) more punters will appear.
• Simply because there are so many unanswered questions most bookies a tighter than normal and it’s really hard to find any value.

Out of the last 3 opening races I have only profited from one. So it’s small stakes and mainly watching and learning – seeing what I can pick up for the second race.

As far as the odds go, as I mentioned above, there’s little to be had at the moment. Kimi is the favourite at around 2.65 on both race win and pole position markets.

It’s good to see Super Aguri made a deal to secure their future and have made to Melbourne. I always like an underdog and it would be great to see them beat the Honda team!

3 seasons ago I started trading on the Formula 1 markets. I followed the sport for many years before this and would sit there on a Sunday afternoon trying to work out the strategies of the teams - reading a F1 race for me is what it’s all about.

There are drivers and teams I prefer to the others, but I wouldn’t say I support anyone. I mainly enjoy a good race regardless of who wins. The politics off the track can also be as interesting (if not more) than the on track action.

F1 until now appears to be low on the list of a bookmaker’s priorities and generally I believe their books are poor in comparison to say their Football markets. Lewis Hamilton last year may change this as towards the end of the season a few new markets emerged. The Hamilton affect may bring about more punters and force the bookies to pay more attention.

Value is the basis of my strategy. As I follow the sport anyway and read anything I can get my hands on I get a good picture in my mind as to how things may pan out. I then look for what I believe to be good value odds and take a back or lay position on them. Some will be left to run if things go well and others will be traded for profit or loss.

There is always at least one driver who represents value in each race. Usually it’s the same culprit throughout the season who is always underestimated for one reason or another. Montoya and Massa are two names in recent years which spring to mind. They have tracks where they go well but the odds never seem to reflect this. As an example in 2006 Massa convincingly won the Turkish Grand Prix and in 2007 was available at odds of 5.1 before the race weekend. He put the car on pole and led from start to finish never really looking like loosing - Alonso, Kimi and Hamilton were all shorter odds.

So there’s no big, complicated strategy which ‘guarantees’ me a win each race. Lots of research and a good knowledge of the sport have enabled me to make a profit of over those 3 seasons.

So after 3 years of profit why am I cautious?

3 seasons (or 3 years) may sound a long time to but there have only been 54 races in this period. I don’t win on each race but most losses are smaller than my winning weekends and I end the season in profit. 54 is not a very big sample and there’s nothing to say my strategy has only worked so far because of luck. Let’s say I was doing the same with football and bet on every premiership team each weekend – my three seasons would be the equivalent of about 3 weeks football betting. For horse racing it would probably equate to 3 or 4 days. I could hardly claim to have a winning system if all I had done is returned a profit after 3 days.

I don’t actually remember how I found it or what lured me to it, but flutter.com is what got me started in betting, or as I like to call it ‘sports trading’. People always look at you funny when you say you like ‘betting’, as though you are a fool who’s throwing his money away, which if I was a ‘gambler’ I would completely agree with!

Imagine someone who has very rarely bet in their life - and I mean rarely – such as an adventurous £2 bet on the Grand National each year. That was me, so how and why I found flutter, looking back on it, is a bit of a mystery.

As a very risk adverse person (£2 was the maximum I would like to stake on the national) again I don’t know why I investigated flutter any further when I did find it. I had no other on-line betting accounts but something about flutter intrigued me. On first look I was convinced there must be some way to profit from this if you can take either (or both) sides.

Of course these days flutter is better known as the king of exchanges…Betfair.

For the first 4 or 5 years I was playing as a bit of a hobby. Again I would always use £2 stakes (only because this was the minimum) and generally spend very little on what was just a bit of entertainment. It’s fair to say today my ‘sports trading’ is far from a hobby.

Over the years I’ve probably dabbled in most sports one way or another. Outright betting on football (what a fool!), football trading (still can’t get a winning strategy!), horse and greyhound racing (to risky for my liking and I know nothing of them), Golf (one I may look at again in the future) and so on. Out of all the sports there are to bet on, only one has ever given me consistent profit. This sport also happens to be my favourite and the one I follow religiously...
....Formula One.

It was a month ago I made my first post but with the F1 season just over a week away I should be here more frequently.

Over the coming blogs I will post more about my strategy and thoughts on F1 ‘trading’.

In the meantime I’m off to place £2 on Kimi Raikkonen to win the drivers championship.