The markets get a bit stale towards the end of the season. Everyone thinks they know what will happen and jumps in early or they are cautious and hold back till the Friday, which means there’s not much action in the meantime. I normally have a flutter on the first practice session which has done so so over the course of the year so with not much happening I’ve had a closer look at what’s on offer for ‘Who will top first practice?’

Lewis has topped the first practice session for the last 3 races (China, Japan and Singapore). Is it a case of those tracks suiting the car or him, or is there a trend here? I have noticed of late that Lewis tends to do a short stint at some point in the first session which is usually the one which sets him the fastest time (I’m talking 3/4 laps at most when most others will do 5-7 lap stints in P1). This seems to be some kind of testing pattern the team have been using. Maybe there is some technical reason for it or maybe its purely physiological and they/Lewis want to get off to a good start.

I would have expected his odds to be around 2.5 to top the first practice session but most bookies have him at 2.75. This is expected to be a Ferrari track so that may have something to do with it – no doubt the long up hill climb will benefit the red cars better, but with less fuel on a 3 lap stint it may not matter. I’m not really that interest in 2.75 but Coral are offering 3.25 which look’s interesting given the above.

Don’t take this as a tip – I’ve not yet taken the bet on myself as the weather is a concern. The weather is expected to be wet which could be to Lewis’ benefit should it be a light drizzle, but will mean anyone could top the session with heavy rain.