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Today’s time is spent looking into yesterday’s findings in more detail and comparing them to the odds available.
The longer shots
Yesterday SportingBet.com had Vettel at 81 for pole position and today they have cut his price to 21. My first thought was has the weather forecast changed but after checking a few sites it’s still expected to be dry on Saturday. Maybe I’ve missed something with regards to the track/tyres combination that favours the Toro Rosso? On checking the stats there is nothing outstanding about Toro Rosso on the hard tyres. Monza (where Vettel won) was a hard tyre track but the wets and inters were used for the most part so I don’t think you can count that. I’m going to put this down to them attracting a lot of business on a selection priced much higher than any competitor and they are now balancing their book. I will keep an eye on the weather because maybe they know something I don’t. I stick by yesterday’s comment that he needs to be over 100/1 for it to be worth a look as I expect him to qualify 7th/8th.
Whilst looking into Vettel’s tyre situation I noticed Heikki has been in the top 3 for most tracks where the harder tyres are used. He’s also done better than Lewis on some of those tracks so maybe my price of 25 is slightly too high. If he tops 20’s I will take a look at this again.
The pole contenders
Interestingly SportingBet have lengthened the odds on Lewis and now Betfair is also trading higher on all 3 of my runners. Odds yesterday on Lewis, Massa and Kimi of 2.82, 3.15 and 5.5 respectively can now be found for 3.1, 3.45 and 6.8. Looks like it would have been worth laying them but you probably wouldn’t have got matched and in a low liquidity market there’s not much to stop a price jumping about so you can easily get caught out.
Lewis is starting to look a good price now which causes a problem because I don’t want a position on all three of them. At the moment I’m more inclined to go for Lewis and Kimi if their price drifts a tiny bit more.
With the odds as they are now you could dutch Lewis, Massa, Kimi and Heikki for roughly a 20% return if any of them take pole. Not bad considering they are the four drivers in what are the quickest two cars on the grid.
On the brink
My first bet of the week!....but I don’t expect it to get matched. A lay on Nick Heidfeld @1.06 to make Q3 - he will probably end up trading around 1.3 so this is very hopeful but if you don’t ask you don’t get.
A quick look at the other markets
I don’t like getting money tied up in the race markets before qualy. You can make a great trade if you’re on the right man by getting matched before qualy and then trading afterwards but if you’re on the wrong man it will cost you. In my experience you loose more than you win. I take a look to see if there are any positions which wouldn’t move against me too much and have the potential to go in my favour considerably.
Bourdais for a points finish and Heikki for a podium may prove worthwhile in that respect. It’s too hard to tell at the moment though because there’s no money about. Come Friday things should have picked up so I will look into these later. There is nothing of interest to me in the race winner market – there is a long way to go between now and Sunday afternoon.
Those who trade horses may find it strange I have spent three days looking at these markets and I’m yet to make any real bets/positions. Think of the whole week as one horse race spread out over that time. You wouldn’t take a position on a soon as you open the market – you would watch and get a feel for how the market was moving and the behaviour of the prices. There are over 48 hours to go before the first practice session so I have plenty of time to take a position. Even then there’s another 24 hours to go before the qualifying market goes in-play!
The longer shots
Yesterday SportingBet.com had Vettel at 81 for pole position and today they have cut his price to 21. My first thought was has the weather forecast changed but after checking a few sites it’s still expected to be dry on Saturday. Maybe I’ve missed something with regards to the track/tyres combination that favours the Toro Rosso? On checking the stats there is nothing outstanding about Toro Rosso on the hard tyres. Monza (where Vettel won) was a hard tyre track but the wets and inters were used for the most part so I don’t think you can count that. I’m going to put this down to them attracting a lot of business on a selection priced much higher than any competitor and they are now balancing their book. I will keep an eye on the weather because maybe they know something I don’t. I stick by yesterday’s comment that he needs to be over 100/1 for it to be worth a look as I expect him to qualify 7th/8th.
Whilst looking into Vettel’s tyre situation I noticed Heikki has been in the top 3 for most tracks where the harder tyres are used. He’s also done better than Lewis on some of those tracks so maybe my price of 25 is slightly too high. If he tops 20’s I will take a look at this again.
The pole contenders
Interestingly SportingBet have lengthened the odds on Lewis and now Betfair is also trading higher on all 3 of my runners. Odds yesterday on Lewis, Massa and Kimi of 2.82, 3.15 and 5.5 respectively can now be found for 3.1, 3.45 and 6.8. Looks like it would have been worth laying them but you probably wouldn’t have got matched and in a low liquidity market there’s not much to stop a price jumping about so you can easily get caught out.
Lewis is starting to look a good price now which causes a problem because I don’t want a position on all three of them. At the moment I’m more inclined to go for Lewis and Kimi if their price drifts a tiny bit more.
With the odds as they are now you could dutch Lewis, Massa, Kimi and Heikki for roughly a 20% return if any of them take pole. Not bad considering they are the four drivers in what are the quickest two cars on the grid.
On the brink
My first bet of the week!....but I don’t expect it to get matched. A lay on Nick Heidfeld @1.06 to make Q3 - he will probably end up trading around 1.3 so this is very hopeful but if you don’t ask you don’t get.
A quick look at the other markets
I don’t like getting money tied up in the race markets before qualy. You can make a great trade if you’re on the right man by getting matched before qualy and then trading afterwards but if you’re on the wrong man it will cost you. In my experience you loose more than you win. I take a look to see if there are any positions which wouldn’t move against me too much and have the potential to go in my favour considerably.
Bourdais for a points finish and Heikki for a podium may prove worthwhile in that respect. It’s too hard to tell at the moment though because there’s no money about. Come Friday things should have picked up so I will look into these later. There is nothing of interest to me in the race winner market – there is a long way to go between now and Sunday afternoon.
Those who trade horses may find it strange I have spent three days looking at these markets and I’m yet to make any real bets/positions. Think of the whole week as one horse race spread out over that time. You wouldn’t take a position on a soon as you open the market – you would watch and get a feel for how the market was moving and the behaviour of the prices. There are over 48 hours to go before the first practice session so I have plenty of time to take a position. Even then there’s another 24 hours to go before the qualifying market goes in-play!
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