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This morning put me in profit for the weekend so far, but only just and it wasn’t easy going.
Webber
The day started with a loss in 3rd practice. The odds on Webber did move out to 50/1 in-play and I think he would have had a good chance had his engine not blown up!
This is the worst case scenario when betting/trading on F1. For those who don’t know, a blown engine before the race means you receive a ten place grid penalty - ie the position I took on Webber for a points finish before 3rd practice now looked awful.
Luckily practice was in the early hours for most European countries and not many people were trading. I had to lay Webber at a price higher than my entry and therefore taking a loss. However the price was not reflecting the fact he would be penalised so I layed more than I needed and then backed again for £1 loss when the market reacted later on. Lucky to get away with that one although if more money was about I may have made a profit!
Kubica
I originally had him in my group as a long shot for pole but after watching the practice sessions it was evident he couldn’t find the right set up. Firstly he was complaining over the radio and secondly his team mate Heidfeld was looking quicker than him. Fair enough Heidfeld could just have been quick but seeing as I had him in my ‘on the brink’ group things didn’t look good for Kubica. I traded his price between 1.1 and 1.3 a few times to end up with a free bet should he not make it. He didn’t make it which all but puts and end to his title hopes. A shame really because if I had to choose between him, Lewis and Massa to win the championship I would choose Kubica.
Kimi
When his odds reached 9’s before qualy I decided it was too good a chance to miss. All the bookies had him at 5’s which was not a bad price itself so I choose this as my main position. I traded back out at an average price of 7.3 which is not great. It’s a profit but I think he hit 3’s after setting the fastest time on the first flying laps. I was ready to trade out but everyone realised Hamilton had made a mistake on his lap which would have been quicker and had another chance to go for it. This caused Kimi’s price to drift out again. I decided not to take the price seeing as he was currently sitting on pole and there was a long way to go before the price drifted to my entry point. Probably a bit greedy but if I can get away with leaving a position as an outright bet it makes one hell of a difference to the profit at the end of the day. It wasn’t to be and I was able to get out with a small profit from the trade.
Heikki
I think his interview on ITV after qualy said it all (he was not a happy bunny for those who didn’t see it). Rightly so because he had the pace to beet Lewis today (not many people will agree with me on that!) and should have done. After setting a good first flying lap I decided to have a small back @ 5.00. His second run amounted to nothing and I had to take a loss on this one. If he can get it together next year he will be the ‘value man’. Massa was the value man for pole at the start of this season – some drivers are under rated and represent great value at certain times.
Tomorrows Race
There’s not much I can say about the race at the moment. With the weather being uncertain you need to choose positions which look good if it's dry and then even better if it rains. For example you don't want to back Massa for the win now because if it's raining in the morning, rightly or wrongly, his price will drift (he's not considered a good wet racer by most).
Vettel qualified 8th but will start 6th thanks to Webber and Heidfeld getting penalties. This means with a good amount of fuel he should be strong. He’s @11 for a podium place which is a long shot but worth a go – if it rains it’s even better value.
Bourdais in the other Toro Rosso looks good for points starting 8th. A small back on him earlier in the week may be added to tomorrow - I’m hesitating because I’m not sure what his wet weather racing is like.
I have a good position on Lewis for fastest lap @ average odds 4.5. Kimi is likely to get the honour again but I should be able to trade this price and again rain will only make this better.
Kimi is 7.4 to win the race and 5 to lead the first lap. He’s got nothing to loose this weekend (his title hopes went last race) and Lewis will be weary going into the very long first corner. The downside is he may have to yield to Massa for WDC reasons but that assumes Massa will be on the pace and able to beat Lewis. If he can’t Massa would prefer Kimi to win the race. Looks a good bet to me but this is weather permitting.
The latest forecasts show any rain will be light rain. This is worse than heavy rain because it causes tyre choice issues. Going on past forecasts this season I’d like to put a bet on there being no rain!
Edit: Screw the weather - that price on Kimi is too good. Sportingbet have just cut it to 5.5. so 7.4 looks a great price - i'm going to take it with Betdaq which for the first time actually looks good for an F1 race - maybe next season I will be using Betdaq.......
Webber
The day started with a loss in 3rd practice. The odds on Webber did move out to 50/1 in-play and I think he would have had a good chance had his engine not blown up!
This is the worst case scenario when betting/trading on F1. For those who don’t know, a blown engine before the race means you receive a ten place grid penalty - ie the position I took on Webber for a points finish before 3rd practice now looked awful.
Luckily practice was in the early hours for most European countries and not many people were trading. I had to lay Webber at a price higher than my entry and therefore taking a loss. However the price was not reflecting the fact he would be penalised so I layed more than I needed and then backed again for £1 loss when the market reacted later on. Lucky to get away with that one although if more money was about I may have made a profit!
Kubica
I originally had him in my group as a long shot for pole but after watching the practice sessions it was evident he couldn’t find the right set up. Firstly he was complaining over the radio and secondly his team mate Heidfeld was looking quicker than him. Fair enough Heidfeld could just have been quick but seeing as I had him in my ‘on the brink’ group things didn’t look good for Kubica. I traded his price between 1.1 and 1.3 a few times to end up with a free bet should he not make it. He didn’t make it which all but puts and end to his title hopes. A shame really because if I had to choose between him, Lewis and Massa to win the championship I would choose Kubica.
Kimi
When his odds reached 9’s before qualy I decided it was too good a chance to miss. All the bookies had him at 5’s which was not a bad price itself so I choose this as my main position. I traded back out at an average price of 7.3 which is not great. It’s a profit but I think he hit 3’s after setting the fastest time on the first flying laps. I was ready to trade out but everyone realised Hamilton had made a mistake on his lap which would have been quicker and had another chance to go for it. This caused Kimi’s price to drift out again. I decided not to take the price seeing as he was currently sitting on pole and there was a long way to go before the price drifted to my entry point. Probably a bit greedy but if I can get away with leaving a position as an outright bet it makes one hell of a difference to the profit at the end of the day. It wasn’t to be and I was able to get out with a small profit from the trade.
Heikki
I think his interview on ITV after qualy said it all (he was not a happy bunny for those who didn’t see it). Rightly so because he had the pace to beet Lewis today (not many people will agree with me on that!) and should have done. After setting a good first flying lap I decided to have a small back @ 5.00. His second run amounted to nothing and I had to take a loss on this one. If he can get it together next year he will be the ‘value man’. Massa was the value man for pole at the start of this season – some drivers are under rated and represent great value at certain times.
Tomorrows Race
There’s not much I can say about the race at the moment. With the weather being uncertain you need to choose positions which look good if it's dry and then even better if it rains. For example you don't want to back Massa for the win now because if it's raining in the morning, rightly or wrongly, his price will drift (he's not considered a good wet racer by most).
Vettel qualified 8th but will start 6th thanks to Webber and Heidfeld getting penalties. This means with a good amount of fuel he should be strong. He’s @11 for a podium place which is a long shot but worth a go – if it rains it’s even better value.
Bourdais in the other Toro Rosso looks good for points starting 8th. A small back on him earlier in the week may be added to tomorrow - I’m hesitating because I’m not sure what his wet weather racing is like.
I have a good position on Lewis for fastest lap @ average odds 4.5. Kimi is likely to get the honour again but I should be able to trade this price and again rain will only make this better.
Kimi is 7.4 to win the race and 5 to lead the first lap. He’s got nothing to loose this weekend (his title hopes went last race) and Lewis will be weary going into the very long first corner. The downside is he may have to yield to Massa for WDC reasons but that assumes Massa will be on the pace and able to beat Lewis. If he can’t Massa would prefer Kimi to win the race. Looks a good bet to me but this is weather permitting.
The latest forecasts show any rain will be light rain. This is worse than heavy rain because it causes tyre choice issues. Going on past forecasts this season I’d like to put a bet on there being no rain!
Edit: Screw the weather - that price on Kimi is too good. Sportingbet have just cut it to 5.5. so 7.4 looks a great price - i'm going to take it with Betdaq which for the first time actually looks good for an F1 race - maybe next season I will be using Betdaq.......
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