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I have taken down all the odds available and recorded them in my notes. I done this earlier in the week and will continue to do so for the rest of the weekend. I have records of the odds at every race this year and in 2007. It means nothing now but Lewis was trading at 5.2 last year to get pole –a nice win for me there! It was a perfect example of the value odds you get at some races, unfortunately this weekend seems to be a bit poor.
After going through some more notes and looking at minute details to see if I can find any pattern with which to base a position, I must admit to being at a loss so far this week. Maybe it’s because the championship is so tight and with so much pressure on two drivers who so far this year have not exactly handled that pressure well, everything looks a bit risky.
Maybe this is why both Kimi and Heikki are starting to look a bit more appealing to me. Neither of them has traded at odds I’d want but their not far off. Their odds could shorten if they look strong in practice (but not by a great deal because most people will be backing Lewis and Massa) so I don’t want to miss anything because I was holding out for a few more ticks. On the other hand, taking their current odds could see me trading out for a loss if they don’t look strong and then I will regret taking a position simply because I didn’t want to miss out.
The other problem here is I feel both drivers will be strong in the first practice session so I may not get a chance to back that high for the rest of the weekend. I’m going to keep an eye on them at the start of practice and take anything if there is a sign they look quick.
Bet365 have Heikki at 15 to top first practice which I feel is a value bet. I’ve placed my first bet of the week but because it’s an outright the stake is small. Statistically the Ferrari’s have topped the first practice on tracks with hard tyres but I’m not interested in the 3 and 3.75 on offer for them to achieve this. If Kimi tops first practice I would be interest in the 6.6 currently on offer for pole.
I was hoping to have made a few trades before now so I could have documented them but it’s not turned out that way. Some races are like that and I think a lot of people are holding back until qualy. I’m off to bed now as my alarm is set for 2:30am. See you in the morning when hopefully I will have some liability on at least one runner!
After going through some more notes and looking at minute details to see if I can find any pattern with which to base a position, I must admit to being at a loss so far this week. Maybe it’s because the championship is so tight and with so much pressure on two drivers who so far this year have not exactly handled that pressure well, everything looks a bit risky.
Maybe this is why both Kimi and Heikki are starting to look a bit more appealing to me. Neither of them has traded at odds I’d want but their not far off. Their odds could shorten if they look strong in practice (but not by a great deal because most people will be backing Lewis and Massa) so I don’t want to miss anything because I was holding out for a few more ticks. On the other hand, taking their current odds could see me trading out for a loss if they don’t look strong and then I will regret taking a position simply because I didn’t want to miss out.
The other problem here is I feel both drivers will be strong in the first practice session so I may not get a chance to back that high for the rest of the weekend. I’m going to keep an eye on them at the start of practice and take anything if there is a sign they look quick.
Bet365 have Heikki at 15 to top first practice which I feel is a value bet. I’ve placed my first bet of the week but because it’s an outright the stake is small. Statistically the Ferrari’s have topped the first practice on tracks with hard tyres but I’m not interested in the 3 and 3.75 on offer for them to achieve this. If Kimi tops first practice I would be interest in the 6.6 currently on offer for pole.
I was hoping to have made a few trades before now so I could have documented them but it’s not turned out that way. Some races are like that and I think a lot of people are holding back until qualy. I’m off to bed now as my alarm is set for 2:30am. See you in the morning when hopefully I will have some liability on at least one runner!
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