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Not the greatest start to the weekend but things aren’t looking too bad now.
In the first session Heikki got off to a great start and looked very strong. I backed him at average odds of 17 but after his good start it looked like he continued with heavy fuel runs for the rest of the day. This doesn’t mean he’s slow but I know the odds will depend on the general look of the timesheets and was therefore expecting is his odds to drift. I traded out for a small loss on the basis he’s now likely to trade in the 20’s and may be able to get a better position on him later in the day. Sure enough the highest bookies odds are 19 so I should be able to get at least 20 on Betfair if I want to back him again. (Someone just put in a back order for £100@15 – you can back him at 19 with the bookies????)
I lost the outright on Heikki to top P1 and also tried for Alonso to top P2 @ 17 which also lost, although he was only just shy posting the 2nd quickest time. I don’t mind losses in this market because when you win the rewards are massive and I’ve had a good return so far this year.
I have made one successful trade which puts me in a good position. Lewis was very very quick compared to the others in P2 and with it looking like he would end the day at the top of both sessions, I backed him at 2.8. This is lower than my odds suggested earlier in the week but things change on a Friday. I traded back out at 2.52 because most bookies re-priced him at 2.5. I maybe could have left the liability there overnight but again I need to look into his times more carefully.
The interesting thing from today is the softer tyre doesn’t appear to be much quicker (if at all) than the harder tyre. In the past it’s been tough choice for Hamilton as to which tyre to make the final qualy run on when there’s not much difference between the two - in Turkey this year he lost out because he made the wrong choice of using the harder tyre. It affects all the drivers but for some reason hampers Lewis more.
Looking at last years race there was roughly 0.2 second difference between the two tyres on Friday. As more rubber got put down on Saturday the difference moved to 0.5 in favour of the softer tyre. Maybe the same will happen this weekend but at the moment I would say the difference is 0.1 in favour of the hard tyre, although it all depends on what team and driver you look at I will keep an eye out on all the driver and Bridgestone press releases for comments about this. This may sound trivial but will be vital to who gets pole tomorrow so I don’t want any liability until I get my head around what the situation is.
Quickly looking at the other markets and I still don’t see much of interest. Heidfeld actually looks quicker than I expected so I will forget about laying him to reach Q3 (the odds have now moved to the 1.28 mark as mentioned earlier in the week).
With the weather for Sunday now showing a high chance of rain and storms the safety may be worth a look (currently 2.2). If the teams expect rain on Sunday this also makes a difference to what happens in qualy. Some may use a dry set-up to get up the grid and some may use a wet set-up to have a good race pace. Also, how much fuel do you use in qualy if you expect rain? Heavy would be good but if the track is damp and drying you want to come in early! So many things to think about ! I’m glad I’m not betting on this……
In the first session Heikki got off to a great start and looked very strong. I backed him at average odds of 17 but after his good start it looked like he continued with heavy fuel runs for the rest of the day. This doesn’t mean he’s slow but I know the odds will depend on the general look of the timesheets and was therefore expecting is his odds to drift. I traded out for a small loss on the basis he’s now likely to trade in the 20’s and may be able to get a better position on him later in the day. Sure enough the highest bookies odds are 19 so I should be able to get at least 20 on Betfair if I want to back him again. (Someone just put in a back order for £100@15 – you can back him at 19 with the bookies????)
I lost the outright on Heikki to top P1 and also tried for Alonso to top P2 @ 17 which also lost, although he was only just shy posting the 2nd quickest time. I don’t mind losses in this market because when you win the rewards are massive and I’ve had a good return so far this year.
I have made one successful trade which puts me in a good position. Lewis was very very quick compared to the others in P2 and with it looking like he would end the day at the top of both sessions, I backed him at 2.8. This is lower than my odds suggested earlier in the week but things change on a Friday. I traded back out at 2.52 because most bookies re-priced him at 2.5. I maybe could have left the liability there overnight but again I need to look into his times more carefully.
The interesting thing from today is the softer tyre doesn’t appear to be much quicker (if at all) than the harder tyre. In the past it’s been tough choice for Hamilton as to which tyre to make the final qualy run on when there’s not much difference between the two - in Turkey this year he lost out because he made the wrong choice of using the harder tyre. It affects all the drivers but for some reason hampers Lewis more.
Looking at last years race there was roughly 0.2 second difference between the two tyres on Friday. As more rubber got put down on Saturday the difference moved to 0.5 in favour of the softer tyre. Maybe the same will happen this weekend but at the moment I would say the difference is 0.1 in favour of the hard tyre, although it all depends on what team and driver you look at I will keep an eye out on all the driver and Bridgestone press releases for comments about this. This may sound trivial but will be vital to who gets pole tomorrow so I don’t want any liability until I get my head around what the situation is.
Quickly looking at the other markets and I still don’t see much of interest. Heidfeld actually looks quicker than I expected so I will forget about laying him to reach Q3 (the odds have now moved to the 1.28 mark as mentioned earlier in the week).
With the weather for Sunday now showing a high chance of rain and storms the safety may be worth a look (currently 2.2). If the teams expect rain on Sunday this also makes a difference to what happens in qualy. Some may use a dry set-up to get up the grid and some may use a wet set-up to have a good race pace. Also, how much fuel do you use in qualy if you expect rain? Heavy would be good but if the track is damp and drying you want to come in early! So many things to think about ! I’m glad I’m not betting on this……
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