I waited as long as possible on the Kimi trade but in the end had to get out at 3.9 during 3rd practice. I still think he’s got a great chance and mid 3’s would probably be a fair price but the usual over reaction to PRACTICE times was in full swing. He’s now trading back at 5’s even though he’s still looking good. I would be tempted to jump back in the marked if it wasn’t for one thing….possible rain.

As it stands I have no liability and 3 free bets on runners in the pole market (Kubica, Alonso and Glock). For me the most interesting market this weekend will be ‘to reach q3’. The liquidity usually picks up in-play and with possible rain it will be a frantic session. A Lay on the fringe runners are the ones to look out for, the likes of Rosberg, Vettel, Piquet, Rubens and Coulthard (maybe add Heidfeld to that list also). I have been matched on some of these at odds on and if you consider they are all fighting for 3, maybe 4 slots then the can’t all make it through.

The other factor in qualy will be the ability to set a lap in the first place. There’s a high chance of someone hitting/clipping a wall and if it happens near the end of a session may rule out the chance for someone to even attempt a qualy lap.