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E-mailKnowing what was wrong and correcting it.
1 Comments Published by John on Sunday, August 3, 2008 at 3:46 PM.
I've been looking at why I made a loss in Qualy for the Hungarian GP and have decided it was down to looking for opportunities that just weren't there. Yes I could have taken a profit so a bit of greed crept in as well but let me explain what I mean.
With F1 being the only sport I trade the event's come around every 2 weeks or so. In between races I don't trade any other event and with only 18 races in a season I feel the need to trade on each and everyone of them, making as much as possible in the progress.
If for example there was a race each week I would have been more inclined to keep my book at the small green I had managed before qualy. There's was not much about and I had no real clear idea's, so knowing I only had to wait 1 week for another chance may have caused me to avoid looking for a bigger win. There is a 3 week break until Valencia which is a long period to wait. Add to this the fact it's a new track so my stakes will be smaller and thus likely a lower return and I will be away for the following race, it will be about 7 weeks before I can really get back into trading F1 properly. With that thought in the back of my mind I wanted to get in a good win - which of course caused me to be a bit greedy and lose.
The good news is the football season will be kicking off and I can concentrate on my new challenge. Hopefully having another sport to trade in between the breaks will help me avoid this kind of mentality in the future. With football there are so many games played you can afford to leave the ones which you don't find any opportunities in. With more opportunities you also don't need to be greedy - just take what you can as the next chance won't be far away.
As for the race today, I'm pleased to say I learnt from yesterdays mistakes and made enough to put me back in profit for the weekend. It's tempting to look for one trade that can win you back a loss in one go but I avoided the temptation and just took every penny I could.
I've said it many times before and I stick by opinion that no driver should be much shorter than evens before a race. Maybe on the odd occasion such as when Schumacher had won a number of races in a row and nobody could touch Ferrari it could be justified - but not in the current situation where the teams are close and the current safety car rules can change a race. I had a lay on Lewis @ 1.39 for a number of reasons - Ferrari I thought would have the better race pace, Heikki may have more fuel if Ferrari didn't have the pace and in yesterdays GP2 race the pole sitter got swamped into the first corner. Thinking about I maybe should have backed Massa to lead 1st lap @ 30+ but then hindsight is a great thing.
I greened up after the first round of stops as it looked like it would be close for the second stops. I needn't have done it though because a puncture for Lewis put an end to his race win hopes and it was Massa's for the taking. I feel sorry for Massa because he drove a great race and deserved a win but it was his engine failure which further increased my winnings. After everyone's pitted for the final time I will sometimes make a small lay if the odds are under 1.1. The small lay has little impact on my overall book so if doesn't come off I hardly notice it, but occasionally it will pay off with a nice return.
I traded 5 of the markets today and made a profit from all of them so it's put me in a good mood for the break that's now coming up. I mainly have Timo Glock to thank for this who put in a great performance all weekend and made me profits on points and podium places.
As for the this season's drivers championship it seems like nobody wants to win it! A couple of weeks ago I said Lewis looked like he would go on to claim it but between him, Massa and Kimi or wouldn't like to say who has the best chance now.
With the 3 week break I will also have a break from this section of my blog so don't expect many updates (if any at all). I may do a kind of season review post from a betting perspective but it all depends on how much spare time I can find.
I'm now going to find some value in football, if there is such a thing.
With F1 being the only sport I trade the event's come around every 2 weeks or so. In between races I don't trade any other event and with only 18 races in a season I feel the need to trade on each and everyone of them, making as much as possible in the progress.
If for example there was a race each week I would have been more inclined to keep my book at the small green I had managed before qualy. There's was not much about and I had no real clear idea's, so knowing I only had to wait 1 week for another chance may have caused me to avoid looking for a bigger win. There is a 3 week break until Valencia which is a long period to wait. Add to this the fact it's a new track so my stakes will be smaller and thus likely a lower return and I will be away for the following race, it will be about 7 weeks before I can really get back into trading F1 properly. With that thought in the back of my mind I wanted to get in a good win - which of course caused me to be a bit greedy and lose.
The good news is the football season will be kicking off and I can concentrate on my new challenge. Hopefully having another sport to trade in between the breaks will help me avoid this kind of mentality in the future. With football there are so many games played you can afford to leave the ones which you don't find any opportunities in. With more opportunities you also don't need to be greedy - just take what you can as the next chance won't be far away.
As for the race today, I'm pleased to say I learnt from yesterdays mistakes and made enough to put me back in profit for the weekend. It's tempting to look for one trade that can win you back a loss in one go but I avoided the temptation and just took every penny I could.
I've said it many times before and I stick by opinion that no driver should be much shorter than evens before a race. Maybe on the odd occasion such as when Schumacher had won a number of races in a row and nobody could touch Ferrari it could be justified - but not in the current situation where the teams are close and the current safety car rules can change a race. I had a lay on Lewis @ 1.39 for a number of reasons - Ferrari I thought would have the better race pace, Heikki may have more fuel if Ferrari didn't have the pace and in yesterdays GP2 race the pole sitter got swamped into the first corner. Thinking about I maybe should have backed Massa to lead 1st lap @ 30+ but then hindsight is a great thing.
I greened up after the first round of stops as it looked like it would be close for the second stops. I needn't have done it though because a puncture for Lewis put an end to his race win hopes and it was Massa's for the taking. I feel sorry for Massa because he drove a great race and deserved a win but it was his engine failure which further increased my winnings. After everyone's pitted for the final time I will sometimes make a small lay if the odds are under 1.1. The small lay has little impact on my overall book so if doesn't come off I hardly notice it, but occasionally it will pay off with a nice return.
I traded 5 of the markets today and made a profit from all of them so it's put me in a good mood for the break that's now coming up. I mainly have Timo Glock to thank for this who put in a great performance all weekend and made me profits on points and podium places.
As for the this season's drivers championship it seems like nobody wants to win it! A couple of weeks ago I said Lewis looked like he would go on to claim it but between him, Massa and Kimi or wouldn't like to say who has the best chance now.
With the 3 week break I will also have a break from this section of my blog so don't expect many updates (if any at all). I may do a kind of season review post from a betting perspective but it all depends on how much spare time I can find.
I'm now going to find some value in football, if there is such a thing.
According to Betfair Massa got matched at 1.01 for £18,000 before he dropped out!