I mentioned in my last post that Kimi may be happy with a carrying a tiny bit more fuel as long as he can get on the front to rows. I’ve just read comments from him saying he now see’s qualy as crucial and is prepared to compromise some race pace in return for a higher qualy slot.

This changes things slightly and I have decided to take a back @ 5.9 for pole position. I was tempted to back him anyway as I expect him to be the stronger of the two Ferrari’s this weekend so this not based on just this comment but a number of things I have looked into. Unless things go badly wrong I should be able to get out for a small loss at that price as he can’t really afford to drift out much longer than 7’s, whereas I should be able to trade out under 3’s if he looks like he can challenge during Q2 and Q3.

I also mentioned the threat of Renault and Toyota trying a low-ish fuel attempt so I have covered my arse with small stakes on Alonso and Trulli’s long odds. I haven’t backed Glock at the moment but will keep an eye on his progress in practice.

On a green track I would think McLaren are going to be strong to begin with but as the weekend progresses things should become close. It will be interesting to see what BMW can do around here – there’s a mixed opinion as to whether they are dropping back or just had a few bad races. The crucial thing for BMW around here is how they manage the softer tyres which my stats point out to be a slight disadvantage for them. However they won in Canada on super softs so maybe it depends on the tarmac or combination of that and the higher temperature (expecting a hot dry weekend in Valencia).

Bridgestone are concerned about the bridge section. Not because a car may go flying off it but because the track has a 15mm bump which may cause punctures on the super soft tyres. Lets hope we don’t have another tyre fiasco on our hands.