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Before I go any further I want to make it clear I’m not in any kind of money trouble – Mum, don’t worry! I do however have bills like everyone else and over the last couple of months I’m noticeably worse off than I used to be. I would guess for many a Betfair punter things are not as good as they used to be and the disposable income used on Betfair may be starting to dry up.
It’s been noticeable over the last couple of races the liquidity on some of the F1 markets has deteriorated quite badly. There could be a number of reasons for this: Its summer time so people are out and about at the weekend, the football season has started and diverted peoples attention, people are on holiday and last weekend was a bank holiday…etc. The race win and pole markets have been OK but it’s the likes of the points and podium markets which I have really struggled to get matched in.
Anyway, more crucially there’s been a change in my attitude. If you have been reading this blog through the season you would have noticed I got off to a great start and continued this until 2 or 3 races ago. The annoying thing is (apart from no appearance of the safety car in Valencia) I have been able to read the weekend and predict the movement of odds quite well. Lewis was clearly not himself in the press conference after qualy and it was mainly his body language etc that made me take the lay position on him. Others put it down to the fact he was not happy because he missed out on pole, but if you watched him it was different to that. Turns out he was ill and nearly didn’t race at all. Yet still made a loss this weekend. This is a worry.
I have always found in the past my trading is far better when I don’t need to win. That may not make much sense because we always want to win otherwise what’s the point – but needing to win is a different matter. There has been a definite change in my psychology lately and where I used to take small green I’m now letting trades run longer – even to point they become losers. I’m not playing the market anymore, I’m chasing the market and chasing a big win. A big win that will pay my latest bill so I can still go out on the town and not have to worry about money I’m pissing up the wall!
All of my pre race weekend preparation is still good and I’m happy with that part of things. It’s when things go in-play I start to make silly decisions. Last weekend I didn’t really think Kubica would actually get pole but 30 was too long and I felt he would be at the sharp end of the grid. He was – he qualified 3rd and I could have taken green (not sure how much but I think around £20) but I didn’t. The £*** sum staring me in the face should he have got pole was too big an juicy for me - it would have paid a couple of bills this month so I let it run – and I lost £20 instead. Easy to say with hindsight but this is what I would have done earlier in the season.
I am in profit, in fact massively in profit (I may post my results some time: as things stand I have about a 700% return on my initial investment). I managed that through taking greens when I could and when I felt the risk outweighed the return. Taking whatever I could when I could because at the end of the day they all add up. £20 is not a bog deal, but added together with 4 other similar trades and you have £100. Do that on 3 or 4 markets over the race weekend and I’d be a happy bunny!
In short I’m becoming greedy. Maybe it’s nothing to do with the ‘credit crunch’ and is because of the big returns I’ve had so far and now £20 hear and there doesn’t seem worth it – but of course it is worth it, especially when the other choice is a loss……
Where to go from here then? Well this all may sound a bit overboard considering this weekend was my first real loss for 6 races. It was also small and within my limits so at the end of the day I didn’t do much wrong from that point of view. However I can tell I’m not trading like I used too and don’t want things to carry on like this as they will only end in a loss. I sure as hell don’t want to waste the money I have won so far this year and I think the best thing would be to have my very own credit crunch!
I have taken every penny out of my betting accounts. The return I made has been pocketed and it’s back to square one. I will treat it like the season has started over again and to make profits I need to go back to how I was – trading properly, trading logically and making a profit!
I will put money back in my account before the next race but it will be smaller than what I have been using. I therefore won’t be able to chase big wins because the big win won’t be possible. Also with the thought in mind I won’t be topping it up again the emphasis will be put back to ‘not loosing’ rather than ‘winning big’. This is my credit crunch but this credit crunch will hopefully make me better off!
It’s been noticeable over the last couple of races the liquidity on some of the F1 markets has deteriorated quite badly. There could be a number of reasons for this: Its summer time so people are out and about at the weekend, the football season has started and diverted peoples attention, people are on holiday and last weekend was a bank holiday…etc. The race win and pole markets have been OK but it’s the likes of the points and podium markets which I have really struggled to get matched in.
Anyway, more crucially there’s been a change in my attitude. If you have been reading this blog through the season you would have noticed I got off to a great start and continued this until 2 or 3 races ago. The annoying thing is (apart from no appearance of the safety car in Valencia) I have been able to read the weekend and predict the movement of odds quite well. Lewis was clearly not himself in the press conference after qualy and it was mainly his body language etc that made me take the lay position on him. Others put it down to the fact he was not happy because he missed out on pole, but if you watched him it was different to that. Turns out he was ill and nearly didn’t race at all. Yet still made a loss this weekend. This is a worry.
I have always found in the past my trading is far better when I don’t need to win. That may not make much sense because we always want to win otherwise what’s the point – but needing to win is a different matter. There has been a definite change in my psychology lately and where I used to take small green I’m now letting trades run longer – even to point they become losers. I’m not playing the market anymore, I’m chasing the market and chasing a big win. A big win that will pay my latest bill so I can still go out on the town and not have to worry about money I’m pissing up the wall!
All of my pre race weekend preparation is still good and I’m happy with that part of things. It’s when things go in-play I start to make silly decisions. Last weekend I didn’t really think Kubica would actually get pole but 30 was too long and I felt he would be at the sharp end of the grid. He was – he qualified 3rd and I could have taken green (not sure how much but I think around £20) but I didn’t. The £*** sum staring me in the face should he have got pole was too big an juicy for me - it would have paid a couple of bills this month so I let it run – and I lost £20 instead. Easy to say with hindsight but this is what I would have done earlier in the season.
I am in profit, in fact massively in profit (I may post my results some time: as things stand I have about a 700% return on my initial investment). I managed that through taking greens when I could and when I felt the risk outweighed the return. Taking whatever I could when I could because at the end of the day they all add up. £20 is not a bog deal, but added together with 4 other similar trades and you have £100. Do that on 3 or 4 markets over the race weekend and I’d be a happy bunny!
In short I’m becoming greedy. Maybe it’s nothing to do with the ‘credit crunch’ and is because of the big returns I’ve had so far and now £20 hear and there doesn’t seem worth it – but of course it is worth it, especially when the other choice is a loss……
Where to go from here then? Well this all may sound a bit overboard considering this weekend was my first real loss for 6 races. It was also small and within my limits so at the end of the day I didn’t do much wrong from that point of view. However I can tell I’m not trading like I used too and don’t want things to carry on like this as they will only end in a loss. I sure as hell don’t want to waste the money I have won so far this year and I think the best thing would be to have my very own credit crunch!
I have taken every penny out of my betting accounts. The return I made has been pocketed and it’s back to square one. I will treat it like the season has started over again and to make profits I need to go back to how I was – trading properly, trading logically and making a profit!
I will put money back in my account before the next race but it will be smaller than what I have been using. I therefore won’t be able to chase big wins because the big win won’t be possible. Also with the thought in mind I won’t be topping it up again the emphasis will be put back to ‘not loosing’ rather than ‘winning big’. This is my credit crunch but this credit crunch will hopefully make me better off!
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