So far what we have seen is almost a repeat of last year. Take a look at last years practice time sheets compared to this years and you will see a lot of similarities.

I have therefore seen enough though to believe McLaren may just have a bit too much 1 lap pace for Ferrari to get pole. Massa’s odds dropped to 3.5 but I expected him to go well in P2 so didn’t trade out. He was slightly off the pace in the afternoon and I ended up trading out in the mid 4’s. A nice green still and I haven’t given up hope on him yet. I will see how the track rubbers in tomorrow (and if there was any overnight rain) before possibly jumping back on the Massa queue.

Another lay on Lewis for pole @ 1.86, means that’s twice I’ve got low odds and traded back out when the market settled, this time @ 2.06. There was no luck here as it was all down to knowing my market and being able to price up the runners. I’ve been reading Graeme’s blog over at ‘The Experiment’ as he’s been wondering if his knowledge sometimes hinders his trading. Sometimes it probably does but at the end of the day I don’t think there’s any substitute for knowing your stuff. As long as you are disciplined with your trading the knowledge can only be a help. It’s when you get big headed and don’t trade out when things go against you that it comes back to bite you in the arse. (And yes I have been bitten in the arse a few times, as have most of us Betfair users I imagine). My edge is my knowledge combined with the trading – neither would bring much success on their own (unless I was lucky), but together they make a great team!

The trading I have done so far has put me in a good position but I’ve not won a penny yet. I have now taken a position on Heikki and have achieved average odds of 28. He’s currently trading @9.8 so I could take a green but the liability is small thanks to the early trading and I think he’s a real threat. From what I gather he ran a new aero package in P1 which Lewis didn’t and he looked very strong. Lewis then used this package in the afternoon to set the fastest time in that session, however in Heikki’s own words “I was able to find a particularly good balance and focused on conserving the tyres rather than going for a laptime [in P2]”.

As for the race it will depend on whether a Ferrari can get on the front row. If they can I think they would have the long distance pace to beat the McLaren around this track. As for which Ferrari it’s hard to tell at the moment but I’m not sure Kimi has the desire anymore – I hope he proves me wrong.

Glock looked impressive in P1 so I snapped up the 4.2 for points finish that was on offer. Williams hyped themselves up for this weekend but they’re yet to show much promise. As for Piquet setting the 2nd fastest time in P2 – If you looked at last years practice times Heikki also made 2nd in P2 with Renault……he also failed to make it into Q3. I’m hoping it was just a poor car and he can do a lot better this year!