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I don’t know what I mean by that title but it sounds good. A few friends asked me if I was serious about my Silverstone prediction seeing as this is what happened last year, “are you really going to back the same thing to happen again?” – yes is the simple answer.
I can understand the thinking because the same thing happening twice in a row would on the surface appear to be unlikely – but this is not really what I’m doing. If I was to back Lewis getting pole and the Kimi winning the race before the 2007 race and at the same time placing the same bet on the 2008 race, I would agree it’s a bit absurd. What I am doing is backing on the 2008 race what I believe is the most likely outcome, which just happens to be what happened last year as well.
Looking into it a bit more deeply you could say what happened last year is also quite likely to happen again this year. It’s likely to be a fight between Ferrari and McLaren again because they are the fastest cars and the two drivers who look quickest at this track are Kimi and Lewis. I don’t want to write off Massa but I think he’d be fairly happy coming home second to Kimi around here as this would be his best result at Silverstone and he’d only drop 2 points to him.
I therefore don’t believe I should ignore the most likely outcome just because it’s what happened last Year. If it’s the most likely outcome, that’s what I want to take a position on (if the odds are value) regardless of whether its’ happened the last 10 years or never at all.
The problem so far is the odds are not of any value. Kimi is a good favourite for the race and Lewis’ pole odds are too short because the British punters are throwing their money at him. I can’t get matched at anywhere near a decent price. Saying that I did spot Kimi’s pole odds were a little high and backed him @ 3.55 which has now come in to 3.2.
Alonso is trading at some good prices in most markets so I’m trying to get involved there and what about Heidfeld not making the top 10 in qualy again – that may be an interesting one to watch?
If you are going to Silverstone tomorrow make sure you say hello. I will be the one wearing a Vodafone McLaren t-shirt…..
I can understand the thinking because the same thing happening twice in a row would on the surface appear to be unlikely – but this is not really what I’m doing. If I was to back Lewis getting pole and the Kimi winning the race before the 2007 race and at the same time placing the same bet on the 2008 race, I would agree it’s a bit absurd. What I am doing is backing on the 2008 race what I believe is the most likely outcome, which just happens to be what happened last year as well.
Looking into it a bit more deeply you could say what happened last year is also quite likely to happen again this year. It’s likely to be a fight between Ferrari and McLaren again because they are the fastest cars and the two drivers who look quickest at this track are Kimi and Lewis. I don’t want to write off Massa but I think he’d be fairly happy coming home second to Kimi around here as this would be his best result at Silverstone and he’d only drop 2 points to him.
I therefore don’t believe I should ignore the most likely outcome just because it’s what happened last Year. If it’s the most likely outcome, that’s what I want to take a position on (if the odds are value) regardless of whether its’ happened the last 10 years or never at all.
The problem so far is the odds are not of any value. Kimi is a good favourite for the race and Lewis’ pole odds are too short because the British punters are throwing their money at him. I can’t get matched at anywhere near a decent price. Saying that I did spot Kimi’s pole odds were a little high and backed him @ 3.55 which has now come in to 3.2.
Alonso is trading at some good prices in most markets so I’m trying to get involved there and what about Heidfeld not making the top 10 in qualy again – that may be an interesting one to watch?
If you are going to Silverstone tomorrow make sure you say hello. I will be the one wearing a Vodafone McLaren t-shirt…..
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