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E-mailChange of tactics brings profit…thanks to luck!
0 Comments Published by John on Sunday, July 20, 2008 at 4:21 PM.
Normally I spend the weekend looking for value in the back side of the odds but this weekend there didn’t seem to be much about. It was the short priced odds that caught my attention and ultimately gave me a profit thanks to a few twists of fate.
I didn’t do much at the start of this race and left things alone for the first 5 or so laps.
Then at lap 12 when Hamilton’s odds were at 1.25 I decided to Lay him for race win. I know he was about 10 seconds in front at this stage but I can’t see how any driver can be these odds after 12 laps. He could have pitted anytime soon and been on a 3 stopper, could have had a problem at any of his pit stops, could have lost an engine (although getting rare these days) or some other mechanical problem …..or have his race ruined by a safety car.
It is lucky for me a safety car did make an appearance but I’m also glad I had the sense to green up this time and take the profit because he did go on to win. This was after his odds moved out to mid 3’s after rejoining 3rd. I wonder how may people were the other way around – backing low at 1.25 then taking a loss at 3’s, only to see him make two passing moves and go on to win anyway?
The Heidfeld Q2 bet came in on Saturday, not because of my theory but because he made a mistake. Both of these bets could easily have gone the other way and resulted in losses so I’m pleased to end the weekend in profit.
The other successful lay, which was not down to luck, was Kimi on fastest lap. He never looked on it all weekend and I just felt 2.72 was too low. That’s not to say I didn’t have the fastest lap market open for nearly the whole race waiting to trade out of it - you never know with Kimi as he can sometimes pull a lap from nowhere – He only won 1 of the last 6 races in which he set fastest lap.
During a race I tend to keep notes of what laps drivers stopped on mainly in case of a safety car. As soon as the safety car came out and I’d worked out the positions I placed £2 back bets on Nick and Piquet, both at 140. I then wanted to double check my notes were correct before placing more on them but it was too late. My notes were wrong for Nick but I still managed £5 green and for piquet….£35 green from a £2 stake! Dam I wish I’d put more on it….but then I think I’ve rode my luck enough this weekend.
I didn’t do much at the start of this race and left things alone for the first 5 or so laps.
Then at lap 12 when Hamilton’s odds were at 1.25 I decided to Lay him for race win. I know he was about 10 seconds in front at this stage but I can’t see how any driver can be these odds after 12 laps. He could have pitted anytime soon and been on a 3 stopper, could have had a problem at any of his pit stops, could have lost an engine (although getting rare these days) or some other mechanical problem …..or have his race ruined by a safety car.
It is lucky for me a safety car did make an appearance but I’m also glad I had the sense to green up this time and take the profit because he did go on to win. This was after his odds moved out to mid 3’s after rejoining 3rd. I wonder how may people were the other way around – backing low at 1.25 then taking a loss at 3’s, only to see him make two passing moves and go on to win anyway?
The Heidfeld Q2 bet came in on Saturday, not because of my theory but because he made a mistake. Both of these bets could easily have gone the other way and resulted in losses so I’m pleased to end the weekend in profit.
The other successful lay, which was not down to luck, was Kimi on fastest lap. He never looked on it all weekend and I just felt 2.72 was too low. That’s not to say I didn’t have the fastest lap market open for nearly the whole race waiting to trade out of it - you never know with Kimi as he can sometimes pull a lap from nowhere – He only won 1 of the last 6 races in which he set fastest lap.
During a race I tend to keep notes of what laps drivers stopped on mainly in case of a safety car. As soon as the safety car came out and I’d worked out the positions I placed £2 back bets on Nick and Piquet, both at 140. I then wanted to double check my notes were correct before placing more on them but it was too late. My notes were wrong for Nick but I still managed £5 green and for piquet….£35 green from a £2 stake! Dam I wish I’d put more on it….but then I think I’ve rode my luck enough this weekend.
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