In Silverstone I was hoping for a dry weekend for a number of reasons. It’s getting hard to tell the outright pace of each car because of the changing conditions and rain means volatility – which can be a very good thing, or very bad thing if you get caught on the wrong side of something. I’m hoping for the same in Germany this weekend but the weather forecasts predict another varied climate and possible rain. I can’t remember so many wet races in a row for a long time.

I have to base pre-race positions on the assumption it will remain dry but at the same time I can’t avoid the possible rain threat. For example it looks like there’s an overreaction to Massa’s poor performance last time out and he’s trading at odds slightly higher than I would expect – but if it rains I don’t want a back position on him (which may be a reason for the slightly longer odds)

Kimi is hoping for a dry weekend as he thinks (and I agree with him) the Ferrari is fastest in hotter conditions. Much like Silverstone, if it’s dry he will be the man to beat but the McLaren’s could prove quicker in qualy trim. That shouldn’t bother Kimi to much as he can win from 2nd/3rd if the conditions are favourable so again I could be looking for a Lewis pole/ Kimi winner strategy which is currently 8’s on betfair.

Over the last couple of years the Fastest Lap market has been a good earner for me but this year seems to be a flop. Mainly because Kimi keeps setting it and he starts off with low odds so there’s little to trade on. I won’t be using the market before the race this weekend and will only choose to enter if I think Kim’s succession of fastest laps is under threat and some good odds are on offer for other runners.

For the rest of the field we should see similar performance to Mangy-Cours which means Toyota and Renault will be looking for good points places and maybe even podiums if the front runners continue with their ‘self-destruct’ tendencies.

You would think with a chance of rain the safety car may make an appearance but I wonder if the race directors are looking to use it as minimal as possible. The run off area at Silverstone is generous which may have been the reason for a no show there, but the teams are unhappy with the current rules surrounding the use of the pits under the safety car. Until the tests on the new system are complete (which as far as I know they aren’t) I think they will look to cover most incidents under yellows/double yellows unless the accident is a big one. I shall be leaving this market alone as well unless it comes down to the 1.25 levels which were on offer in-play two weeks ago.

There are a few other interesting bets available but I shall have to keep these to myself for the moment as I’m not matched yet!