It’s all going to plan for Kimi so far this weekend and it looks like a Ferrari 1-2 is on the cards. It’s hard to anything else happening so it won’t be easy to claw back some of the loss from yesterday’s qualifying. Heikki just didn’t perform and a grid penalty for him now means a race win is out of the question.

Lewis odds drifted to 7’s in Q2 so I decided this would be a good bet given the chance he could go light, but he made mistakes on both attempts and lost out. With BMW also off the pace Ferrari should have an easy ride and really this was to be expected.

If Lewis had gone into this weekend with no penalty my thoughts would have been completely different. I would have been backing the Ferrari’s and most probably sitting on a nice profit right now. It looks like I read to much into McLarens tactics and focused too much on this, rather than the blindingly obvious fact Ferrari are massively quick around Magny-Cours.

It’s going to need something a bit special for me to profit from today’s race – something unexpected which will give me the opportunity to trade. Kimi should win but I’m not comfortable backing him at 1.5 and I can’t see much else I like the look of either. I need safety cars, rain, engine failures and pit stop miss-haps!

EDIT: Rain! - there is a chance of some rain in the race. I have taken a Lay position on Kimi @1.49