Rss Feed
E-mail
It’s usually around this time of the season I like to have a look over some of the stats. A sample of 6 races is by no means a gospel set of records but it can sometimes give you an insight into some things which on the surface may not have been obvious.
The picture below is a table of the qualifying odds available on the drivers from the ‘top 3’ teams and the actual place they then achieved. I have lest put Monaco for two reason, firstly I wasn’t here to capture the data and secondly it doesn’t give a true reflection as Monaco is a bit of an odd ball race.
Click to view odds data
Really this doesn’t tell us much about what will happen in the future but it can be used to give us an idea as to who may (or may not) give good value. I said in one of my earlier posts that each year there tends to be a driver underestimated by the bookies and punters alike. Montoya was a favourite of mine for offering great value and last year Massa stole his crown. Looking at the stats it again indicates Massa has shown great value in terms of his qualifying odds, but you’d be lucky to get 7.2 on him again this season. Backing Massa in every race would have provided a profit even though he only secured 2/6 pole positions. Kubica would have also provided a return on this basis but everyone else would have given you a loss.
Kimi is the obvious poor performer in respect of the qualy odds. He has been favourite (or close to it) in every race but his odds don’t outweigh his hit rate of 1 pole. Laying Kimi in each race would have proved a profitable strategy, as too would laying Lewis.
Both Ferrari’s show profit from race winner situations.
Heikki and Nick obviously haven’t managed a pole or race win so you it means little to compare their odds. I do believe they may still represent some value, as Kovalainen is not that much slower than Lewis in qualy so are is much longer odds really justified…time will tell.
Things would look only slightly different with the inclusion of Monaco – Massa would show even better results in qualy form and Lewis would have gone some way to making up his race losses.
Anyway, the purpose of this was to allow me to come up with some vague odds ranges for each driver. These will act as my guideline during the next couple of races in helping me spot value in the drivers odds. Anything above the range indicates back value, anything below represents lay value. As I said above this data is not gospel and is just used in the decision making process.
Looking ahead at Canada’s odds, interestingly Massa shows value again in both qualy and race odds…..he’s surprised a few people in Monaco but can he really do It again?
The picture below is a table of the qualifying odds available on the drivers from the ‘top 3’ teams and the actual place they then achieved. I have lest put Monaco for two reason, firstly I wasn’t here to capture the data and secondly it doesn’t give a true reflection as Monaco is a bit of an odd ball race.
Click to view odds data
Really this doesn’t tell us much about what will happen in the future but it can be used to give us an idea as to who may (or may not) give good value. I said in one of my earlier posts that each year there tends to be a driver underestimated by the bookies and punters alike. Montoya was a favourite of mine for offering great value and last year Massa stole his crown. Looking at the stats it again indicates Massa has shown great value in terms of his qualifying odds, but you’d be lucky to get 7.2 on him again this season. Backing Massa in every race would have provided a profit even though he only secured 2/6 pole positions. Kubica would have also provided a return on this basis but everyone else would have given you a loss.
Kimi is the obvious poor performer in respect of the qualy odds. He has been favourite (or close to it) in every race but his odds don’t outweigh his hit rate of 1 pole. Laying Kimi in each race would have proved a profitable strategy, as too would laying Lewis.
Both Ferrari’s show profit from race winner situations.
Heikki and Nick obviously haven’t managed a pole or race win so you it means little to compare their odds. I do believe they may still represent some value, as Kovalainen is not that much slower than Lewis in qualy so are is much longer odds really justified…time will tell.
Things would look only slightly different with the inclusion of Monaco – Massa would show even better results in qualy form and Lewis would have gone some way to making up his race losses.
Anyway, the purpose of this was to allow me to come up with some vague odds ranges for each driver. These will act as my guideline during the next couple of races in helping me spot value in the drivers odds. Anything above the range indicates back value, anything below represents lay value. As I said above this data is not gospel and is just used in the decision making process.
Looking ahead at Canada’s odds, interestingly Massa shows value again in both qualy and race odds…..he’s surprised a few people in Monaco but can he really do It again?
0 Responses to “Odds Ranges”
Post a Comment