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The newbie error

As you can tell I’ve updated the site, but it’s about time I started some serious posting. I felt the blog got off to a good start but with the holiday in May things got a bit hectic and most of my posts were just quick notes rather than thoughts and theory.

I’m feeling confident with my trading at the moment but there’s another week until the French grand prix. I want to get practicing and try out some new software so I may give the horses a little go tomorrow.

I’ve tried to trade horses before but with mixed success. The toughest thing about learning to trade an event is having the patients to sit there for hours on end, working away to win yourself £1 –if your lucky. Unless you’re rich you can’t use big stakes to find your way and if you were rich, you’d spend the day outside instead of steering at a computer screen. Inevitably you get to a stage where things may be going well – lets say you are £1 up from having used £2 stakes to trade on 6 races – but you get impatient and a voice in your head says “why not let this one run, see if it comes in. I’m only risking £2 and that’s nothing – I could win £10 if this horse comes in….”

Of course the horse doesn’t come in, you loose £2 but worse still the whole experiment is ruined. The return you had was not bad considering the stakes and if you had continued that way a decent set of data could have been obtained. You could look back and work out, had the stakes been higher what you would have one from a days trading. Because of that one lapse you get into a ‘I give up’ mentality and have the belief trading horses doesn’t work. It was betting that didn’t work – the trading worked fine but your concentration let you down.

Should I have time to trade the horses tomorrow I will take a different approach. Maybe devise some sort of game that encourages me to stick to the trading which also takes away the focus of the money. If I’m trading to reach some target other than a monetary one, letting a bet run would not be in my interests. Sounds good to me in theory but now I just need to think of a way to do that.

Strangely this never happened to me with F1 trading. I think it’s because I was an F1 fan first and then found my way into betting. The small stakes I used years ago were more for my entertainment than the return I would get. It was more to do with getting it right, predicting the outcome and testing my race reading ability - The money was just a bonus and in a way it’s still the case today.

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About this site

I have managed to make consistent profits through a mix of traditional betting, trading on the exchanges and somewhat of an obsession for Formula One over the last 3 seasons. Will it continue in 2008 or have I just been lucky! Follow my blog as I look at the possibilities in each race and try to pick out the value bets. Feel free to comment on any posts (negative or positive!) or contact me by e-mail if you have any questions (mail@flutterfly.co.uk).





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