Kovalainen has so far not really made much impression at McLaren. It can’t be easy competing with the ‘saviour of Formula One’, the man who as yet hasn’t made a decent apology to Kimi for ruining his race. Although some people have failed to notice it Heikki has done a reasonable job and bad luck may be to blame for his performances so far. Canada was a poor race for him but until then he had out qualified Hamilton with fuel correct times in nearly every race. A fastest lap and a number of appearances in the top 3 fastest laps shows when he gets going, he has got the pace.

Hamilton’s 10 place grid penalty is key to this weekend. McLaren can go one of 2 ways, light fuel with potential 3 stops to get pole (start 10^th) or use reasonable fuel, aiming for 4^th at best (starting 14^th or more). Lewis did use a 3 stop strategy (changed during the race) to secure 3^rd last year but Alonso who started 10^th because of gearbox problems also had to start the race with 16 laps fuel. He made little impression which may sway McLaren to use the higher fuel option. He should be quicker than the cars around him and staying out a bit longer may move him up the order for points – because realistically points are all he’s aiming for.

Unless of course Heikki can secure pole and control the pace of race. We’ve not seen something like this done for while and I’m not sure how well it would work but it’s an option. If McLaren felt the need to run light last year with a strategy that could be turned from short 2 stopper to 3 stopper, they may well use that again this year. Why? Because Ferrari will be quick and once again Kubica will be in the mix.

Massa found himself on pole last year albeit because of a mistake on Kimi’s last lap which may have piped it. Kimi made use of the heavier fuel load to pass Massa in the 2^nd round of pit stops for a convincing Ferrari 1-2. McLaren may be close this year but not close enough and it will be hard to see anything other than Ferrari dominance. Unless of course Heikki can step up to the table.

Kubica will again represent good value in qualy odds but the race win may be a bit too much to ask for this time.

Last year I heavily backed Kimi to bring home the goods which he duly done. This year it’s a bit more risky. Massa has finished 3^rd and 2^nd in the last two years so he will want to go one step further again. The way he’s been performing this year I wouldn’t write him off - his drive in Canada impressed me and I’m still in shock from his Monaco pole!.

This is going to need some more investigation…..but Heikki most definitely is great value in the circumstances.