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Turkey: Friday Update

This may seem like a strange move to make given the dominance of Ferrari at the top of the time sheets but I scratched my back bet of Massa for pole. I did it first thing this morning when I realised Ferrari were struggling to get heat into their tyres and set good times so I decided on a change of strategy.

There's no doubt Ferrari have the quickest car this weekend but it only appears to be quick after 3 or 4 laps - the same applies to the BMW's. McLaren on the other hand are able to set a fast lap out of the box and then slowly loose pace. This is only because of the weather today and things may change for tomorrow (should be slightly warmer) but todays data could mean a Mclaren pole sitter. In this circumstance they really need to get ahead of the others to stop them pulling away.

I already had a small back of Heikki @ 29 for pole (massive price) so during P1 I backed Lewis at 9.8. Lewis has shortened to 7.2 whereas Heikki is around the mid 20's. I actually think Heikki has looked faster than Lewis so far and if Mclaren want to control the race they could light fuel him. I will see how 3rd practice goes and may decide to get out of these positions if I think I'm wrong.

Also done the usual small stakes outright bet on P3 for some midfield runners to top the session (I also included the BMW's this time).

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I have managed to make consistent profits through a mix of traditional betting, trading on the exchanges and somewhat of an obsession for Formula One over the last 3 seasons. Will it continue in 2008 or have I just been lucky! Follow my blog as I look at the possibilities in each race and try to pick out the value bets. Feel free to comment on any posts (negative or positive!) or contact me by e-mail if you have any questions (mail@flutterfly.co.uk).





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