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Failing at football

Well last week flew by and I never got to do the strategy post I wanted too. My attention now moves to the Bahrain race this weekend, following which is a 3 week break so I will have plenty of time then to make the post.

I had a small stakes attempt at trading some of the weekend’s premiership games and failed miserably. I thought Liverpool would beat Everton, mainly because without Cahill I don’t think Everton can create much, plus being at Anfield an all, I thought a lay of Everton would be a good choice. Why then did I back Everton once I had seen the odds? (Liverpool went on to win)
With F1 I can get a good indication of the ‘correct’ odds and spot value – with football I’m hopeless.

Back to the F1 and I’m not yet sure how I want to ‘play’ this weekend’s race. On the surface it looks like Ferrari should win it, but dig a little deeper and things don’t seem so clear cut. There’s no doubt this race will be closer than Malaysia. In Australia Ferrari screwed up and handed the win to McLarern – McLaren then screwed up and handed the win to Ferrari in Malaysia. So if they both get it right this weekend who’s going to come out on top?

It’s good to see Betfair have created a new market for ‘Qualifying Round 3 – top 10’. This should be an interesting market with some good possibilities. Only problem is with most new markets they take a while for people get confident with them meaning the liquidity is usually poor for a while. The liquidity so far on the other F1 markets hasn’t been great but this is expected. Firstly it’s the start of the season and both races have taken place during the night in Europe. Hopefully this race will see an improvement now we are back to ‘normal’ start times.

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I have managed to make consistent profits through a mix of traditional betting, trading on the exchanges and somewhat of an obsession for Formula One over the last 3 seasons. Will it continue in 2008 or have I just been lucky! Follow my blog as I look at the possibilities in each race and try to pick out the value bets. Feel free to comment on any posts (negative or positive!) or contact me by e-mail if you have any questions (mail@flutterfly.co.uk).





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