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I mentioned yesterday that Lewis was trading in the 9’s for pole. I decided not to back him then because it was likely neither McLaren or Ferrari would shine in P3 due to fuel loads so his odds were likely to drift further for no real reason. Drift they did and all the way out to a tempting 13.5 which is were I entered the market. A strange thing happened as soon as the market went in-play – within 4 minutes of the start of Q1 (remember nothing really matters in Q1) and even before Lewis had turned a wheel the odds dropped and began trading as low as 6. You can see on the graph how erratic the trading was during a time when nothing had happened at all. Traded for a nice free bet with the intention of greening this if the odds came down ( I thought it would be close but ultimately he wouldn’t get pole) – but a dismal Q3 for McLaren means I never got the chance and the trade was wasted. No loss but disappointing not to get anything from this.
Quick Nick is not so quick
It looked as though BMW were switching strategies between the drivers each race. One would have roughly 17 and the other 21 laps of fuel and it would have worked out for Nick to get the lighter fuel load this weekend. I placed the outright on Nick to beat Kubica early in the weekend and had it been a trade I would have got out quickly as it was evident from P1 Nick was struggling. His 9th place is a poor showing and its possible BMW decided to give Kubica the lighter load rather than waste it on Nick who was never going to threaten the front row of the grid.
I’m annoyed with this because I should have seen it coming. Alonso’s showing is (and his fans will disagree) clearly a low fuel glory run. May not be that low but even 2 or 3 laps would have given him the edge he needed to please the fans and a Renault team in need of a lift (I want to point out at this stage this is not a criticism. I respect Alonso and think he's a great driver but both he and Pay Symonds have in as many words admitted to a low fuel load - nothing wrong with going light IMO) He was trading at big odds and was around 48 when he started his flying lap – would have been a great trade but…….
Betfair screw-up
When Alonso set the fastest lap for some strange and absurd reason the market suspended! This was a critical time with seconds to go in qualy and they suspend it. In all honesty I was both lucky and unlucky at the same time. I put a back order in but the market suspended and it was cancelled. It was suspended from the moment Alonso set provisional pole to the moment Kimi stole it from him. Had I been matched I would never been able to trade out. Take a look at the graph and it appears nobody managed to trade out their position as trading stopped from the moment he set the fast lap - with 48 being the last matched amount. I would have been seriously peeved if my bet did get matched – although I’m equally peeved I couldn’t back Kimi when he was setting a quick lap. Earlier in the week they had to reset the ‘reach Q3’ market and void all bets. www.punt.com made a good post about trusting Betfair and I know F1 is not their biggest money maker – but if you are going to offer a service then a service you should offer.
So I ended with a small loss on the qualy market. Although the Nick bet was free bet money I’m still going to count that on top of this loss. I got things wrong but once again the loss is minor compared to the returns I’ve been getting, however I can’t see much opportunity for good returns on the race tomorrow.
Hi John,
I had same problems with supspended market yesterday and had a small loss according to possible profit.
What do you think about the following strategies:
1. Lay Raikkonen in winner market:
The question for this plan is: How does the odds move, if Raikkonen wins start and how does odds move, if he loses start against Alonso?
If Alonso can take the lead than you can trade out and minimize risk. If Raikkonen holds P1 you have to trade out and take a small loss. Raikkonen is available @1.44.
2. Lay Massa podium finish market:
The same question here: How does the odds move?
All the best, Loocie
Mmm that’s a tough one. 1.44 is the shortest odds I’ve seen the pole sitter have for a while (probably because of the stat 9 out of the last 10 pole sitters have won this race). Normally if the odds are around 2.00 then should they keep the lead in the first corner the odds drop to around 1.4-.1.6 depending on circumstances. Starting at 1.44 I can’t see the odds dropping that much if he does keep the lead, (bearing in mind he’s 1.2 not to finish the race) maybe 1.25 or something around that mark which would mean a small loss should he lead the first lap. Problem is if Alonso gets him in first corner his odds won’t move out a great deal because he will still be expected to beat a light Renault. Can’t see much profit/loss either way to be honest.
I am tempted to lay Kimi myself but all you are really saying with this type of bet is ‘will Alonso lead in the first corner’ because that’s what you are relying on to make the trade. Alonso odds for first lap lead are not too bad so I’d be more inclined to take that route and accept the full loss if he doesn’t manage it -work out how much you could loose if the Kimi trade went against you and use that as the stake for Alonso first lap lead – if it comes off the return is much higher for the same stake.
You could lay Kimi and let the bet run longer in case he has a problem or slow pit stop etc, but you’d obviously be running more risk.
Massa podium is also a tough one. The odds are not going to change much until we see the cars come for their first stops around 15-20 laps in the race. I also expect him to make the podium so if things work for him you may never get the chance to get out of the trade without a loss.
But then going on my last piece of advice for you, you may want to ignore me!
Thank you very much for your thoughts. I am glad to have a discussion with you about odds movement depending on different circumstances. I agree with you, if odds did not move very much, it would not be a great deal. I will wait until race start. Maybe I can get some more information in pre race coverage. Good luck!
I don't know what channel you watch for the race build up, but for anyone in the UK - do the opposite of what Mark Blundell says will happen you can't go far wrong!
:) I am watching german tv. What did he say?
He said Alonso was on a 3 stopper. I can't beleive they pay him to give his opinion - I would be much cheaper :-)
free bet
i think the problem iwth backing hamilton is that he is still a rookie, and is quite erratic as u state....
Free Bet- My point was the odds were very eratic for no reason at all - Lewis had not left the garage - in fact only about 5 backmakers had done a lap - there's no reason for the odds to have suddenly traded at half the price they were. Lewis is actually one of the most consitent drivers. If he is on it then he will be quick, if not he's slow! You know exactly were you are with him.