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Bahrain Race

Well that was quite possibly the worst I have traded on an F1 race. Of the 7 markets I entered I made a loss on….7!

It all stems back to not having a ‘plan’ for the race. Although I thought Kubica may attempt a low fuel pole position, I didn’t think about what this would mean for the race. With no plan I just traded randomly on whatever I fancied - maybe the good wins I have had put me in a cocky mood where I thought I could just wing-it.

The loss is again small so I’m not too concerned and as ww.punt.com would say - I have paid a small price for my tuition fees. Yesterdays win far out ways today’s loss, but it’s still disappointing to take a hit.

It all started with a simple theory which went wrong. As Massa started on the dirty side and given his showing in races, I decided a lay on race win would be a good move pre race at 2.4. Not once in the Bahrain grand prix has the 2nd place man taken the lead into the first corner but that’s exactly what Massa did. Not only content with ruining my race win position I also layed him to lead in the first lap – a market which is almost impossible to trade out of if things go against you. I realised it wasn’t my day when Massa stayed out longer than Kimi, proving what a great qualifier he is. At this point I traded out for a loss.
A few times it looked like Kimi may pass him in the pits (I clawed a little more back trading his odds) but he never really threatened. It would have been interesting to see if he would have pushed Massa harder had Lewis also been in a good points scoring position – he still has to see Lewis his main rival and with Lewis not scoring anything why risk loosing 8 points to get another 2.

To make things worse, an accidental click of the mouse button caused a one-click bet to be placed which I really didn’t want to be, on the fasted lap market. These things will happen – it’s just bloody annoying when they do! Of all the places my mouse could have been when I clicked it, it’s sods law it was not a favourable one. I spent the second half of the race trading back to a position of -£2 thanks to a few exchanges of fastest lap in the later part of the races. I was in a good position before wrongly placing the bet which makes it more annoying as the trading I done afterwards would have moved that position even further – possibly giving a return from the race instead of a loss.

Button started in 9th and I also decided to trade on him on a points finish, so typical of today’s luck he had an incident on the first corner which as good as put an end to his race.

A three week break until Barcelona gives me plenty of time to look at what I done wrong today and get fully prepared for next time. With 3 races gone I’ve made a small loss on the first and then two big profits. If the season carries on this way I will be more than happy.

3 Responses to “Bahrain Race”

  1. # Blogger David Allen

    John - thanks for the link to my Wizardgold site. I have linked back to you also.

    Can you put on a link to my new one too please at footytrader.com  

  2. # Anonymous Anonymous

    hello

    nice blog!

    would you like to exchange links?

    rc

    trading tennis
    http://tradingtennis.blogspot.com  

  3. # Blogger John

    Yep, no problem I will add both links

    I need to find another sport to trade so maybe football or tennis could be it!

    Cheers, John.  

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About this site

I have managed to make consistent profits through a mix of traditional betting, trading on the exchanges and somewhat of an obsession for Formula One over the last 3 seasons. Will it continue in 2008 or have I just been lucky! Follow my blog as I look at the possibilities in each race and try to pick out the value bets. Feel free to comment on any posts (negative or positive!) or contact me by e-mail if you have any questions (mail@flutterfly.co.uk).





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