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E-mailBahrain Qualy: Of course there’s also BMW…….
4 Comments Published by John on Saturday, April 5, 2008 at 1:51 PM.
….especially Kubica!
Well things went almost perfectly for me today even though I may have got a bit lucky – but then you’ve got to be in it to win it.
I had a feeling BMW would go light (Which I think Kubica is) to try and get pole this week. To be honest I originally backed Heidfeld but after a poor showing in P1 I layed this bet and backed Kubica instead. He took pole, just beating Massa. Massa was unlucky with traffic as he could have gone quicker but his bad luck was my good luck and another good win comes my way.
Because I was concentrating so much on Kubica I missed a good chance to lay off the liability on my Lewis bet. As this was a matched free bet I’m not too concerned – the Kubica trade also made much more than this anyway. Again though I think he could be slightly on the lighter side. They had to do something to stop the Ferrari’s walking away with it this weekend and low fuel was the obvious option.
Two new markets on Betfair also proved profitable. I used smaller stakes but bets on Trulli and Rosberg to reach Q3, as well as a lay of Massa/Massa on the pole/Win market gave reasonable returns.
One nice win was a successful dutch on ‘who will top practice’ with BET365. I backed Rosberg @ 80 to top P1 which he missed out by 0.1 sec but recovered that loss with a back of Massa in the dutch. P3 is very interesting because the top teams have no reason to try a low fuel run – they know they can get through to Q3 so why waste time on this, they are far better testing race fuel runs. This gives a good opportunity for ‘midfield’ runners to top the session. These runners are usually priced around 30 to 80 so can make a great ducting bet. Rosberg came good in P3 @ 34!
So another successful qualy session for me and now in a good starting position for the race as I layed Kimi at low odds. I would not want to make a call on who will win tomorrow though!
Well things went almost perfectly for me today even though I may have got a bit lucky – but then you’ve got to be in it to win it.
I had a feeling BMW would go light (Which I think Kubica is) to try and get pole this week. To be honest I originally backed Heidfeld but after a poor showing in P1 I layed this bet and backed Kubica instead. He took pole, just beating Massa. Massa was unlucky with traffic as he could have gone quicker but his bad luck was my good luck and another good win comes my way.
Because I was concentrating so much on Kubica I missed a good chance to lay off the liability on my Lewis bet. As this was a matched free bet I’m not too concerned – the Kubica trade also made much more than this anyway. Again though I think he could be slightly on the lighter side. They had to do something to stop the Ferrari’s walking away with it this weekend and low fuel was the obvious option.
Two new markets on Betfair also proved profitable. I used smaller stakes but bets on Trulli and Rosberg to reach Q3, as well as a lay of Massa/Massa on the pole/Win market gave reasonable returns.
One nice win was a successful dutch on ‘who will top practice’ with BET365. I backed Rosberg @ 80 to top P1 which he missed out by 0.1 sec but recovered that loss with a back of Massa in the dutch. P3 is very interesting because the top teams have no reason to try a low fuel run – they know they can get through to Q3 so why waste time on this, they are far better testing race fuel runs. This gives a good opportunity for ‘midfield’ runners to top the session. These runners are usually priced around 30 to 80 so can make a great ducting bet. Rosberg came good in P3 @ 34!
So another successful qualy session for me and now in a good starting position for the race as I layed Kimi at low odds. I would not want to make a call on who will win tomorrow though!
Hi John,
i enjoy reading you blog and added an link to my blog http://layyourself.blogspot.com/. You wrote you can not make a call on who will win tomorrow, but what do you think of backing Massa pre race and lay off later. I think he has less fuel for high qualifying position than Massa. What do you think?
All the best, Loocie
Yep he’s definitely got less fuel (Kubica that is) so it could work. The only problem being Massa has not really shown himself well in race conditions – such as spinning off in first corner at Australia. For me it’s just slightly too risky but it could work. If he sits behind Kubica too long then Lewis’s strategy may start to look better so Massa really has to go for it which may mean he pushes too hard (think back to Malaysia last year). This is why I’m having a really tough job predicting a winner tomorrow!
Thanks for the link – I will return the favour.
Even though Massa won in Bahrein last year, it was from pole. Massa has never won when NOT starting on pole, a fact that suggests he really aint good enough in race conditions, whole lot easier driving first in clean air.
He's currently under a lot of pressure to make results so it'll be interesting to see how he manages, for Ferrari's sake I hope he improves to be a support for Kimi to bring home his second drivers title, currently it's easy enough to stay behind him and watch him fuck up.
Thanks for adding a link to my blog.
Kubica is on clean side of the track, right? So i think he has a good chance to hold lead in first lap. I will wait for odds after 1st lap and maybe back Massa if odds are good.
All the best, Loocie