It looks like this weekends Malaysian Grand Prix is going to be a tough one to predict, probably even harder than the first race. The problem is Ferrari. The problem with Ferrari is, do they themselves, have a problem!

Although their weekend in Melbourne was poor, it was at the same time not so bad. They showed pace through the weekend (clearly fastest on Friday) and Kimi was probably the third quickest driver in the race behind Kovalainen and Lewis. So the question is: Are Ferrari on the pace of Mclaren? It’s hard to tell because their weekend had so many interruptions due to reliability – which is the problem. I would expect them to be far better this weekend but will they be good enough. It’s worth noting Ferrari tend to be happier on the harder end scale of tyres which will be used in Malaysia.

Looking through the odds one thing stands out. Massa has been trading at above 8 and is still in the 7’s as I write so there is possibly some value here. Last year at this race he sat on pole and before the event he was 2.80 (ish) to get it. This was in different circumstances to this year with Ferrari having won the first race (albeit in the hands of Kimi) but…..

1. Last year Massa was quicker than Kimi all weekend. He was fastest in P1 & P2 and 2nd to Hamilton in P3.
2. He did throw the race away, spinning off while battling with Lewis and showed his race craft is not quite what it could be – but this is a bet for pole – not race win.
3. Funnily enough, just as in last weeks race, the last time Ferrari failed to finish both cars was Australia 06. Meaningless fact I know but in the race which followed new boy Massa showed Mr Schumacher how to drive this track. Starting at the back he made his way though the pack to beat Schumacher and finish one place above him in 5th. He only started at the back because of an engine change so we don't know what he could have achieved in qualy.
4. In 2005 he outperformed another championship winning team mate (but then anyone could have beat Villeneuve that year) in the Sauber. He also clocked quickest time in P2.

Anyway I could go on. What I’m getting at is he’s no slouch around this track. It’s a fast long high speed corner kind of track – just the kind Massa goes well on.

I don’t think he will get pole if I’m completely honest. But I do believe he’s in with a shot and anything around 7 has to be value right? I’m sticking my neck out here and could look a fool but I don’t care. I’m sure at some point this weekend those odds will be shortened and I can make a trade and then it won’t make any difference as to whether he gets pole or not.

A small outright bet has been placed with BET365 who are offering 7.00 on Massa to top first practice.

The biggest risk I’m running is booze related. It’s Easter weekend which means I will be out most nights and with another night time/early morning race, my trading ability may not be what it should!

Most of my betting will therefore be done in-play as I don’t want positions ruined because I slept in and missed a practice session. A headache and a red book will not make me happy.