Well a loss is not the best way I would have liked to start off this blog but never mind. I’m reasonably happy as the loss is minimal and after the way qualifying went I knew it would be hard to get much from the weekend.

As soon as Lewis got pole the race was his to loose. As odds on favourite I didn’t see much point in backing him. For me the return compared to the risk of engine/mechanical failure, being taken out by another car or an unfortunately timed safety car is not worth it. He won easily but as Kovalainen found out the safety car can ruin your race as what looked like a guaranteed 2nd place for him turned into 5th. I therefore prefer to take the position of laying an odds on driver with view to greening it in-play. I never got the chance in this race as nobody could put up a decent fight and his odds just shortened.

I claimed some back by laying selected drivers not to finish. This may be an interesting market in the future now driving aids are removed and the market has been made available in-play. All the spreads and outright bets before the race indicated around 15/16 cars would finish, as was the case in most races last year. Only 7 cars actually made it to the end!

A few other bets and trades reduced the loss on Hamilton’s win to comfortable amount. As I said in the previous post I normally loose on the first race which is why I use reduced stakes for what is the toughest one to predict all season. The only reason I show an interest at all is because if you can get it right the return should be big.

Time to review the stats, find out where I went wrong and what I can do about it for the next race in Malaysia which is only a week away.