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Australia Qualifying

Phew! How did I get out of this with a very small loss.

All the pre-season talk was about how quick Ferrari are, how McLaren would be quick but distracted from last years spy scandal and how BMW have taken a step back. It was therefore a bit of a surprise to see Ferrari off the pace, McLaren on song and BMW looking far better than even they expected.

At the start of the week I was backing Kimi for pole. The odds weren’t great but it looked like a done deal, especially when he set the fastest time in Friday’s practice. On Saturday things seemed to change for the worse and I’m still not sure why, so I took a small green. Massa’s odds were high at 5 and as he now looked slightly quicker than Kimi it was him I decided to back. A good move in hindsight because Kimi had a fuel pump problem and retired from the session. This caused Massa’s odds to drop to into the 2’s and would have been I nice green if I decided to take it….which I didn’t. I felt, as had everyone pre-season that Ferrari had the quickest package.

At the end of Q2 Massa didn’t look as quick as everyone expected and the odds drifted quickly. I took a small loss when I exited at 5.5 but quickly got a covering bet on Lewis while he was still at 2.4. This was enough to cover most of my losses without to much risk on the ‘outsiders’.

I did have money on Kubica and he really should have taken pole but clipped the grass- loosing a few tenths. It would have been a nice win, and again maybe I should have greened up, but at the end of the day a loss of just over a measly £3 feels more like a win. I got it completely wrong and yet I didn’t pay for it.

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I have managed to make consistent profits through a mix of traditional betting, trading on the exchanges and somewhat of an obsession for Formula One over the last 3 seasons. Will it continue in 2008 or have I just been lucky! Follow my blog as I look at the possibilities in each race and try to pick out the value bets. Feel free to comment on any posts (negative or positive!) or contact me by e-mail if you have any questions (mail@flutterfly.co.uk).





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