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I said in a previous post it will take a great drive from Lewis to win this race. I really didn’t think he would do it this year and after overdriving the car in qualy yesterday it looked like he had his work cut out. Winning the race was a great answer to his critics and trouncing the opposition was an even better one.
I have in the past favoured laying Lewis in most cases. His odds tend to be on the short side and he is prone to mistakes as every rookie is, but I will tread with more caution in the future. Some will say Kimi lost this race on the wrong tyre choices but I don’t think he would have been able beat Lewis anyway as his pace was so much quicker than everyone else. The win will have lift some of the pressure which has been building and was probably the cause of a poor race in France. It’s a 3 way tie in the championship but I can now see Hamilton going on to win it.
As for the trading I made a small loss. From the moment the race started I was on the back foot. A green up of the Heikki bet after the first lap gave me a return on race winner but the big looser for me was fastest lap. Kimi set the fastest lap once again (I think that’s 6 in a row now) and because the rain then slowed the times I had no way of exiting backs on Heikki, Lewis, Alonso and Webber.
I thought about backing a safety car but luckily I didn’t. With so many spins and rain it’s surprising it didn’t make an appearance. The trouble with rain is you can either win big or loose big so it was a conservative and quiet race for me from a trading perspective.
After yesterdays win I still end the weekend in profit so it’s been another good weekend for me.
I have in the past favoured laying Lewis in most cases. His odds tend to be on the short side and he is prone to mistakes as every rookie is, but I will tread with more caution in the future. Some will say Kimi lost this race on the wrong tyre choices but I don’t think he would have been able beat Lewis anyway as his pace was so much quicker than everyone else. The win will have lift some of the pressure which has been building and was probably the cause of a poor race in France. It’s a 3 way tie in the championship but I can now see Hamilton going on to win it.
As for the trading I made a small loss. From the moment the race started I was on the back foot. A green up of the Heikki bet after the first lap gave me a return on race winner but the big looser for me was fastest lap. Kimi set the fastest lap once again (I think that’s 6 in a row now) and because the rain then slowed the times I had no way of exiting backs on Heikki, Lewis, Alonso and Webber.
I thought about backing a safety car but luckily I didn’t. With so many spins and rain it’s surprising it didn’t make an appearance. The trouble with rain is you can either win big or loose big so it was a conservative and quiet race for me from a trading perspective.
After yesterdays win I still end the weekend in profit so it’s been another good weekend for me.
Sometimes you have to accept you were wrong and move on (something Lewis should do) because clinging to a belief which the facts in front of you are saying otherwise is not a good idea. I was wrong about how things would pan out this weekend but it’s a good job I realised it early, otherwise I would be steering at a loss and not a nice green. I would have been tied into outright bets and lost the lot so trading comes up trumps again.
In my post earlier today I mentioned I was trading Heikki’s odds and in the end decided to leave a small back bet open @ 13.5. He was showing great pace all through qualy and I was still tempted to back him at the mid 4’s on offer before Q3. At this stage it was only going to be a battle between him and Lewis with the only unknown being fuel loads. I kept a close eye on things with the mouse hovering over the submit button, ready to hedge should the odds drift. I always set up very short lay’s of drivers I’ve backed in case of a last second switch in positions (it’s happened a couple of time this season) This is the result –
With this mornings win on P3, the qualy win and the back bet @ 15.5 on Heikki to win the race I’m in a good position for the race.
I did loose a little on lays for Heidfeld and Vettel in the ‘to reach q3’ market, but a back of Piquet put me back in profit.
I don’t think any predictions on tomorrow’s race would be wise until the weather is known.
In my post earlier today I mentioned I was trading Heikki’s odds and in the end decided to leave a small back bet open @ 13.5. He was showing great pace all through qualy and I was still tempted to back him at the mid 4’s on offer before Q3. At this stage it was only going to be a battle between him and Lewis with the only unknown being fuel loads. I kept a close eye on things with the mouse hovering over the submit button, ready to hedge should the odds drift. I always set up very short lay’s of drivers I’ve backed in case of a last second switch in positions (it’s happened a couple of time this season) This is the result –
With this mornings win on P3, the qualy win and the back bet @ 15.5 on Heikki to win the race I’m in a good position for the race.
I did loose a little on lays for Heidfeld and Vettel in the ‘to reach q3’ market, but a back of Piquet put me back in profit.
I don’t think any predictions on tomorrow’s race would be wise until the weather is known.
A good start to the day as Alonso topped P3 to get me off to a winning start. Bet365 drastically cut their odds on ‘to top p3’ but I still managed to find value. I cut down on the amount of runners I selected and just backed Alonso, Webber, Kubica and Rosberg. Alonso and Webber came in 1st and 2nd so a good bet in the end.
Ferrari look off the pace but I can’t help thinking they are hiding something. I have exited all of my previous positions as it looks like I was wrong – firstly I’m no longer convinced Lewis will get pole on pure pace and Massa looks to be the quicker of the two Ferrari’s. Luckily I held out for good odds when I entered the market and have been able to make a small green from them.
What’s strange is Heikki’s odds. Very rarely do you see so much volatility in F1 odds – they tend to gradually go down or up, but Heikki has been constantly trading between 10 and 14 on the pole market. I’ve been using small stakes and trading these prices to get a small free bet on him. I’m considering just entering the market and leaving the bet to run in-play with this one as Heikki has looked quicker the Lewis all weekend, but will McLaren give him more fuel than Lewis to allow the britt a better chance at pole? Maybe that’s why there’s so much variation because although he’s quicker he could still end up behind Lewis on the grid. A heavier fuel load would mean a good race strategy for him so I have now backed Heikki to win the race. Watch out for Alonso putting in a good qualy performance too, maybe not pole but 3rd row at least.
The set-ups could also play a key part in this qualy session. Do you go for wet or dry set-up? Get a good grid slot and struggle in the race or settle for the a (hopefully) good race.
Ferrari look off the pace but I can’t help thinking they are hiding something. I have exited all of my previous positions as it looks like I was wrong – firstly I’m no longer convinced Lewis will get pole on pure pace and Massa looks to be the quicker of the two Ferrari’s. Luckily I held out for good odds when I entered the market and have been able to make a small green from them.
What’s strange is Heikki’s odds. Very rarely do you see so much volatility in F1 odds – they tend to gradually go down or up, but Heikki has been constantly trading between 10 and 14 on the pole market. I’ve been using small stakes and trading these prices to get a small free bet on him. I’m considering just entering the market and leaving the bet to run in-play with this one as Heikki has looked quicker the Lewis all weekend, but will McLaren give him more fuel than Lewis to allow the britt a better chance at pole? Maybe that’s why there’s so much variation because although he’s quicker he could still end up behind Lewis on the grid. A heavier fuel load would mean a good race strategy for him so I have now backed Heikki to win the race. Watch out for Alonso putting in a good qualy performance too, maybe not pole but 3rd row at least.
The set-ups could also play a key part in this qualy session. Do you go for wet or dry set-up? Get a good grid slot and struggle in the race or settle for the a (hopefully) good race.
Taking a photo of a moving F1 car is not easy. At Monaco it could be done because the speeds are slower but Silverstone – no chance! I gave up in the end and just recorded some clips, one of which is below. I was Just having a little play with youtube as I’ve never uploaded any videos before. It’s of Piquet going through Maggots up to Becketts. I was trying to give an idea as to the speeds they go through that section of the track but it just doesn’t translate to TV/video. (and filming piquet probably wasn't the best move either! Saying that I have money on him to finish in the points, doh)
The other thing I missed today was the drop in Heikki’s odds from 20 to 12’s on pole position. Looks like I backed him a race to early as he’s looking a serious contender. As for Kimi – what going on? Are they expecting rain and testing 1 stop fuel loads? Who knows….. It’s getting late now after a long day so I will have to get up early and look into what really happened tomorrow morning. The weather conditions will also be better known in the morning so everything’s on hold for the moment.
The other thing I missed today was the drop in Heikki’s odds from 20 to 12’s on pole position. Looks like I backed him a race to early as he’s looking a serious contender. As for Kimi – what going on? Are they expecting rain and testing 1 stop fuel loads? Who knows….. It’s getting late now after a long day so I will have to get up early and look into what really happened tomorrow morning. The weather conditions will also be better known in the morning so everything’s on hold for the moment.
I don’t know what I mean by that title but it sounds good. A few friends asked me if I was serious about my Silverstone prediction seeing as this is what happened last year, “are you really going to back the same thing to happen again?” – yes is the simple answer.
I can understand the thinking because the same thing happening twice in a row would on the surface appear to be unlikely – but this is not really what I’m doing. If I was to back Lewis getting pole and the Kimi winning the race before the 2007 race and at the same time placing the same bet on the 2008 race, I would agree it’s a bit absurd. What I am doing is backing on the 2008 race what I believe is the most likely outcome, which just happens to be what happened last year as well.
Looking into it a bit more deeply you could say what happened last year is also quite likely to happen again this year. It’s likely to be a fight between Ferrari and McLaren again because they are the fastest cars and the two drivers who look quickest at this track are Kimi and Lewis. I don’t want to write off Massa but I think he’d be fairly happy coming home second to Kimi around here as this would be his best result at Silverstone and he’d only drop 2 points to him.
I therefore don’t believe I should ignore the most likely outcome just because it’s what happened last Year. If it’s the most likely outcome, that’s what I want to take a position on (if the odds are value) regardless of whether its’ happened the last 10 years or never at all.
The problem so far is the odds are not of any value. Kimi is a good favourite for the race and Lewis’ pole odds are too short because the British punters are throwing their money at him. I can’t get matched at anywhere near a decent price. Saying that I did spot Kimi’s pole odds were a little high and backed him @ 3.55 which has now come in to 3.2.
Alonso is trading at some good prices in most markets so I’m trying to get involved there and what about Heidfeld not making the top 10 in qualy again – that may be an interesting one to watch?
If you are going to Silverstone tomorrow make sure you say hello. I will be the one wearing a Vodafone McLaren t-shirt…..
I can understand the thinking because the same thing happening twice in a row would on the surface appear to be unlikely – but this is not really what I’m doing. If I was to back Lewis getting pole and the Kimi winning the race before the 2007 race and at the same time placing the same bet on the 2008 race, I would agree it’s a bit absurd. What I am doing is backing on the 2008 race what I believe is the most likely outcome, which just happens to be what happened last year as well.
Looking into it a bit more deeply you could say what happened last year is also quite likely to happen again this year. It’s likely to be a fight between Ferrari and McLaren again because they are the fastest cars and the two drivers who look quickest at this track are Kimi and Lewis. I don’t want to write off Massa but I think he’d be fairly happy coming home second to Kimi around here as this would be his best result at Silverstone and he’d only drop 2 points to him.
I therefore don’t believe I should ignore the most likely outcome just because it’s what happened last Year. If it’s the most likely outcome, that’s what I want to take a position on (if the odds are value) regardless of whether its’ happened the last 10 years or never at all.
The problem so far is the odds are not of any value. Kimi is a good favourite for the race and Lewis’ pole odds are too short because the British punters are throwing their money at him. I can’t get matched at anywhere near a decent price. Saying that I did spot Kimi’s pole odds were a little high and backed him @ 3.55 which has now come in to 3.2.
Alonso is trading at some good prices in most markets so I’m trying to get involved there and what about Heidfeld not making the top 10 in qualy again – that may be an interesting one to watch?
If you are going to Silverstone tomorrow make sure you say hello. I will be the one wearing a Vodafone McLaren t-shirt…..
I was hoping for a nice clean fight this weekend with no penalties etc, but it looks like the weather may play a part once again. A 60% chance of rain on raceday and possible rain in qualy means this may turn into a lottery – in which case in-play betting is the way to go.
I will have to cut my stakes down and play on the basis it won’t rain, leaving a pot behind in case it does. I normally like rain to spice things up and provide some volatility in the odds – you can make some great trade in the right places. Last race I backed Rubens at 1000 when he pitted first of everyone for wet tyres. Unfortunately the rain didn’t continue but I still managed to green up that bet for £5 - if it had continued to rain the green up would have been much much more.
This time around though I would prefer no rain. It’s been a while since we’ve been able to compare the top teams in a ‘fair’ fight (no penalties or no rain) and it would have been interesting to see what progress had been made in testing.
I will have to cut my stakes down and play on the basis it won’t rain, leaving a pot behind in case it does. I normally like rain to spice things up and provide some volatility in the odds – you can make some great trade in the right places. Last race I backed Rubens at 1000 when he pitted first of everyone for wet tyres. Unfortunately the rain didn’t continue but I still managed to green up that bet for £5 - if it had continued to rain the green up would have been much much more.
This time around though I would prefer no rain. It’s been a while since we’ve been able to compare the top teams in a ‘fair’ fight (no penalties or no rain) and it would have been interesting to see what progress had been made in testing.
In the old days, before I started treating this like a job rather than a hobby or bit of entertainment on a Sunday afternoon, I used to make solid predictions as to what I thought would happen during a race weekend. For a bit of fun this is what will happen in the 2008 British Grand Prix:
Lewis will entertain the sell out crowd on the Saturday by securing pole in a McLaren which has made progress since Magny-Course. He will be closely followed by both Ferrari’s of Kimi and Massa respectively. Sunday will be a classic case of good old pit stop strategy and the slightly heavier Ferrari of Kimi will take the victory with the Lewis and Massa left to battle amongst the back markers in order to secure the remaining podium places.
Apologies to any Brit fans going to the race hoping to see a Lewis win! He is a great driver and will go on to good things but at the moment he is still learning. Some of his comments are questionable but it’s what he does on track that’s important. He’s probably never been under as much pressure as he will be this weekend. Off the back of the worst races in his short F1 career he comes to his home track with an expecting sell out crowd.
Ferrari will be quick, maybe too quick. It will take something special for Lewis to win this weekend and if he manages to do so it may shut some people up (including me) and do his reputation a much needed boost – any mistakes will play into the hands of the press. Unfortunately for him I just can’t see anyone other than Kimi taking victory.
So I may have been joking at the start of this post, but seriously I do think this is a highly possible outcome. With no penalties (yet) we have a clean fight on our hands and a return the Turkey/Spain battles we had a few months back. This means a quick McLaren in qualy and a quick Ferrari in race pace.
Kimi’s race win odds are too short on Betfair @ 2.6 seeing as some bookies have him at 2.5. Plus if I think Lewis may get pole then I don’t really want to take race win odds on Kimi which are based on the assumption he will be starting first.Maybe Hamilton/Kimi on the double could be an option – it’s very hard to get matched on this market for any decent amount which may be a problem.
It may force me to look further down the grid for other bets if race winner is off the cards. Tests at tracks before a race weekend tend to close the gap a bit and after last weeks test it should be tight in the midfield. I doubt BMW will be as poor this time around but Renault may give them good fight for 3rd best team so Alonso could be one to watch in the w/o the big 4 market (if Betfair offer it later in the week).
I shall be at Silverstone on Friday but it shouldn’t much of a disadvantage as there will be plenty of time for research when I get back.
Lewis will entertain the sell out crowd on the Saturday by securing pole in a McLaren which has made progress since Magny-Course. He will be closely followed by both Ferrari’s of Kimi and Massa respectively. Sunday will be a classic case of good old pit stop strategy and the slightly heavier Ferrari of Kimi will take the victory with the Lewis and Massa left to battle amongst the back markers in order to secure the remaining podium places.
Apologies to any Brit fans going to the race hoping to see a Lewis win! He is a great driver and will go on to good things but at the moment he is still learning. Some of his comments are questionable but it’s what he does on track that’s important. He’s probably never been under as much pressure as he will be this weekend. Off the back of the worst races in his short F1 career he comes to his home track with an expecting sell out crowd.
Ferrari will be quick, maybe too quick. It will take something special for Lewis to win this weekend and if he manages to do so it may shut some people up (including me) and do his reputation a much needed boost – any mistakes will play into the hands of the press. Unfortunately for him I just can’t see anyone other than Kimi taking victory.
So I may have been joking at the start of this post, but seriously I do think this is a highly possible outcome. With no penalties (yet) we have a clean fight on our hands and a return the Turkey/Spain battles we had a few months back. This means a quick McLaren in qualy and a quick Ferrari in race pace.
Kimi’s race win odds are too short on Betfair @ 2.6 seeing as some bookies have him at 2.5. Plus if I think Lewis may get pole then I don’t really want to take race win odds on Kimi which are based on the assumption he will be starting first.Maybe Hamilton/Kimi on the double could be an option – it’s very hard to get matched on this market for any decent amount which may be a problem.
It may force me to look further down the grid for other bets if race winner is off the cards. Tests at tracks before a race weekend tend to close the gap a bit and after last weeks test it should be tight in the midfield. I doubt BMW will be as poor this time around but Renault may give them good fight for 3rd best team so Alonso could be one to watch in the w/o the big 4 market (if Betfair offer it later in the week).
I shall be at Silverstone on Friday but it shouldn’t much of a disadvantage as there will be plenty of time for research when I get back.